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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Apr 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/06/2005   
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APRIL KEY FIGURES

Apr '05
Mar 05 to Apr '05
Apr '04 to Apr '05
'000
% change
% change

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS
Trend
466.2
0.2
9.1
Seasonally adjusted
460.4
-1.4
. .
Original
409.5
. .
. .
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
Trend
385.3
-0.2
9.6
Seasonally adjusted
384.8
-0.6
. .
Original
371.2
. .
. .

. . not applicable

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



APRIL KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during April 2005 (466,200 movements) increased by 0.2% compared with March 2005. This followed monthly increases of 0.7% for February and 0.4% for March 2005.
  • Short-term visitor arrivals were 9.1% higher than in April 2004 (427,300 movements). The series last troughed in February 2004.
  • During April 2005, short-term resident departures (385,300 movements) decreased by 0.2% when compared with March 2005. This followed a minimal decrease in February 2005 and a decrease of 0.2% for March 2005. Monthly growth rates have slowed since the peak in growth in October 2004 (1.9%).
  • Compared with April 2004 (351,600 movements) short-term resident departures were up by 9.6%.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals during April 2005 (460,400 movements) decreased by 1.4% compared with March 2005. Short-term visitor arrivals decreased by 3.0% for February and increased by 0.9% for March 2005.
  • Short-term resident departures for April 2005 (384,800 movements) decreased by 0.6% compared with March 2005 and followed a decrease of 1.2% for February and an increase of 2.8% for March 2005.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 409,500 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 371,200 short-term resident departures from Australia during April 2005.


NOTES


EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for May 2005 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 15 June 2005. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 12 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

United Kingdom correction for seasonal and trend series estimates - The addition of the April original estimate for 2005 has enabled the estimation of an Easter correction for the short-term visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom. This has caused revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates.



EMERGING ISSUES

December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami - It is considered that the impact of the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami on overseas arrivals from, and resident departures to, affected countries was not significant. For example, while seasonally adjusted short-term resident departures to Thailand have shown decreases for the months of January and February 2005, March and April 2005 have shown a return to more expected levels. While the ABS will continue to monitor this situation further reporting will cease and will only be resumed if significant changes in the series are noted.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in April 2005 have increased by 9.1% when compared with April 2004. Monthly increases have been recorded since March 2004 with visitor arrivals increasing from 425,500 movements in March 2004 to 466,200 movements in April 2005.


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during April 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with March 2005 and April 2004.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - April 2005

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Mar 05 to Apr 05
Apr 04 to Apr 05
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
95.5
99.0
97.9
1.6
13.6
Japan
56.4
52.0
50.2
-2.6
-0.3
United Kingdom
61.8
58.7
46.2
0.8
8.8
United States of America
38.7
38.0
31.7
1.0
7.2
Korea
21.9
22.1
19.6
3.0
26.3
China
21.6
(a)np
18.9
-3.3
8.8
Singapore
23.5
24.6
18.4
0.5
14.2
Thailand
6.5
6.2
12.0
-
-1.1
Malaysia
13.8
13.5
11.7
-1.9
-3.4
Hong Kong
12.8
13.3
11.5
0.4
13.5

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures have increased by 9.6% between April 2004 and April 2005. However, there was a small decrease (0.2%) between March and April 2005. A minimal decrease (50 movements) was recorded for February and a decrease of 0.2% was recorded for March 2005 indicating that the long-term upwards trend evident since May 2003 has stalled.


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates), for short-term resident departures during April 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with March 2005 and April 2004.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - April 2005

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Mar 05 to Apr 05
Apr 04 to Apr 05
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
69.3
66.7
69.6
-0.8
5.8
United States of America
34.4
32.9
32.4
0.9
10.1
United Kingdom
31.4
31.1
30.6
0.1
-0.1
Indonesia
31.9
31.7
26.7
-0.2
8.6
China
19.6
19.5
22.2
2.0
40.1
Fiji
16.7
17.5
15.6
0.5
20.7
Hong Kong
14.7
14.9
14.9
-0.8
26.1
Singapore
15.0
14.2
14.6
-1.9
23.2
Thailand
15.2
15.1
13.4
-2.0
1.3
Malaysia
14.9
15.8
12.6
1.6
29.6



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND AUSTRALIA

Short-term visitor arrivals

According to trend estimates, in April 2005, the number of short-term visitor arrivals from the United States of America represented 8% (38,700 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the past ten years the trend has fluctuated with the series rising from a low in April 1995 (25,200 movements) to a high in May 2001 (40,900 movements). The April 2005 trend estimate for arrivals from the United States of America increased by 1% when compared with March 2005 and by 7% when compared with April 2004.


The seasonally adjusted peak, in the graph below, in September 2000 (72,800 movements) reflects the large number of short-term visitor arrivals from the United States of America during the 2000 Sydney Olympic Games.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, 41% of the visitors from the United States of America in April 2005 stated holiday as the main reason for journey, compared with 54% of all short-term visitor arrivals. The median age of visitors from the United States of America was 46 years (40 years for all visitors) while the median intended duration of stay was 12 days (10 days for all visitors).


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates show that the number of residents departing Australia short-term for the United States of America represented 9% (34,400 movements) of all short-term resident departures in April 2005. As with short-term visitor arrivals to Australia from the United States of America the trend in short-term Australian residents departing to that country has fluctuated over the past ten years. Over this period the series reached its lowest point in June 2003 (23,700 movements) but has mainly shown increased growth since that month to reach its highest point in April 2005. The April 2005 trend estimate for resident departures to the United States of America increased by 0.9% when compared with March 2005 and by 10% when compared with April 2004.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, 48% of Australian residents departing to the United States of America stated holiday as the main reason for journey, compared with 45% for all residents departing. The median age of residents departing to the United States of America was 42 years (43 years for all residents) and the median intended duration of stay was 16 days (14 days for all residents).



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,670 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during April 2005, an increase of 12.9% when compared with April 2004 (9,440 movements). Settlers born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion (16%) followed by the United Kingdom (14%) and India and China (each 8%).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).


There were 5,460 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during April 2005, an increase of 5.1% when compared with April 2004 (5,200 movements).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graphs presented below illustrate the long-term increase in the trend series for arrivals from the United Kingdom and New Zealand and the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on arrivals from Japan earlier in 2003.

United Kingdom
Graph: United Kingdom
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Japan
Graph: Japan




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect that the terrorist attacks in that country on 11 September 2001 had on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that departures of Australian residents, which had been trending upwards since May 2003, appear to have stalled. For Indonesia the graph shows a return to expected resident departures levels after the influence of the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Indonesia
Graph: Indonesia


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