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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, May 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 15/06/2005   
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NOTES

DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for May 2005 will be released on 6 July 2005.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off or irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates at the current end of the series are subject to revision due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

United Kingdom correction for seasonal and trend series estimates - The addition of the April original estimate for 2005, published in the April edition of Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) on 3 June 2005, has enabled the estimation of an Easter correction for the short-term visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom. This has caused revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates.



EMERGING ISSUES

December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami - It is considered that the impact of 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami on overseas arrivals from, and resident departures to, affected countries was not significant. For example, while seasonally adjusted short-term resident departures to Thailand have shown decreases for the months of January and February 2005, March and April 2005 have shown a return to more expected levels. While the ABS will continue to monitor this situation further reporting will cease and will only be resumed if significant changes in the series are noted.



FORTHCOMING CHANGES

From 14 July 2005 time series spreadsheets released in association with this product will be presented in Excel format. Please refer to the Information Paper: Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, New Format Time Series Spreadsheets (cat. no. 3401.0.55.002) for further detail, including 'mock-up' tables in the new format.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for May 2005 (456,500 movements) decreased by 0.6% compared with April 2005 (459,200 movements). This followed decreases of 0.1% for March and 0.4% for April 2005.


Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.1% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,300 movements). Prior to that month, short-term visitor arrivals had increased each month from February 2004 (425,100 movements).



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in May 2005 (446,500 movements) decreased by 2.7% compared with April 2005 (459,000 movements). This followed an increase of 1.0% for March and a decrease of 1.6% for April 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 355,600 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during May 2005.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - May 2005

May 05
Apr 05 to May 05
May 04 to May 05
'000
% change
% change

Trend
456.5
-0.6
6.0
Seasonally adjusted
446.5
-2.7
. .
Original
355.6
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 05
May 05
Apr 05 to May 05
May 04 to May 05
Apr 05
May 05
Apr 05 to May 05
May 05
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
95.3
96.5
1.3
12.8
98.5
96.2
-2.3
82.0
Total
106.2
107.6
1.3
12.6
109.3
108.0
-1.1
92.1
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
11.8
11.7
-0.8
3.4
11.3
11.6
2.1
6.7
Netherlands
4.2
4.2
-0.2
5.5
4.4
4.1
-6.4
2.1
Sweden
3.0
2.9
-0.6
5.8
2.5
3.1
25.1
1.1
Switzerland
3.5
3.5
-1.0
0.1
3.6
3.3
-6.5
1.5
United Kingdom
60.5
60.3
-0.4
4.8
58.5
58.2
-0.5
30.6
Total
99.2
98.5
-0.8
4.0
94.8
95.8
1.1
50.5
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.0
3.9
-2.4
5.2
4.1
3.7
-9.8
2.2
Total
10.0
9.8
-1.9
7.1
10.6
9.2
-12.8
5.4
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
Total
5.7
5.6
-1.0
6.3
6.8
5.7
-16.6
3.1
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
7.1
7.2
0.6
-2.4
7.1
6.8
-4.3
5.0
Malaysia
14.2
14.1
-0.6
-2.7
13.6
14.8
9.2
19.3
Philippines
2.8
2.9
0.7
9.9
2.8
2.9
0.8
3.3
Singapore
23.6
23.8
0.9
17.8
24.8
23.9
-3.6
23.9
Thailand
6.4
6.4
-0.9
-1.7
6.2
6.3
2.1
6.3
Total
56.5
56.7
0.2
6.3
56.3
57.4
1.9
60.0
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
20.3
19.2
-5.4
-3.1
(c)n.p.
(c)n.p.
(c)n.p.
14.0
Japan
54.0
51.4
-4.9
-8.6
52.4
47.4
-9.5
42.4
Korea
21.7
22.2
2.1
26.0
22.0
21.8
-0.6
18.2
Taiwan
9.4
9.2
-1.4
11.4
10.6
7.8
-26.0
8.1
Total
119.0
115.8
-2.6
2.2
119.2
109.1
-8.5
93.2
AMERICAS
Canada
9.0
9.0
-0.3
5.6
9.4
8.7
-7.3
5.6
United States of America
37.9
37.8
-0.3
3.2
37.6
36.8
-2.0
30.0
Total
49.9
49.8
-0.2
4.9
50.2
48.5
-3.3
37.9
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
4.4
4.4
0.2
0.9
3.8
4.7
21.9
3.2
Total
5.9
5.9
-
2.7
5.4
6.1
12.9
4.2
Total(d)
459.2
456.5
-0.6
6.0
459.0
446.5
-2.7
355.6

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as AusStats time series spreadsheets.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China are of an unpublishable standard.
(d) Includes Southern and Central Asia and not stated/inadequately described.

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