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5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Jun 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/09/2003   
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KEY FIGURES


Mar Qtr 2003 to Jun Qtr 2003
Jun Qtr 2002 to Jun Qtr 2003
%
%

Income from sales of goods and services (Chain volume measures)
Manufacturing
Trend
0.0
1.2
Seasonally Adjusted
-0.7
1.8
Wholesale trade
Trend
1.0
4.4
Seasonally Adjusted
1.0
5.6
Inventories (Chain volume measures)(a)
Trend
0.8
1.2
Seasonally Adjusted
1.3
1.5
Company profits before income tax(b)
Trend
1.7
29.6
Seasonally Adjusted
-11.4
23.1
Company gross operating profits(b)
Trend
-2.5
0.9
Seasonally Adjusted
-6.9
-0.5
Wages and salaries
Original
5.5
7.6


Graph: Inventories (chain volume measures) trend estimates, quarterly change
Graph: Company gross operating profits, trend estimates, quarterly change


KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate (in volume terms) for inventories for the June quarter 2003 is $94,213m, an increase of 0.8% over the March quarter 2003. The trend estimate (in volume terms) for income from sales of goods and services in Manufacturing was flat this quarter after nine quarters of growth. The comparable estimates for Wholesale trade has increased in the latest ten quarters. The trend estimate (in current price terms) for company gross operating profits decreased by 2.5% in the June quarter 2003.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate (in volume terms) for inventories increased by 1.3% in the June quarter 2003, with Wholesale trade being the major contributor. Income from sales of goods and services by Wholesale trade increased by 1.0% while Manufacturing decreased by 0.7%.
  • Company gross operating profits decreased by 6.9% this quarter, with Manufacturing and Mining being the major contributors.


NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

A new base year, 2001-02, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. Also, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2001-02, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.

The weighting given to some components used in the calculation of price deflators has also been revised this quarter.

IMPACT OF FALLING CRUDE OIL PRICES ON COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PRODUCTS

As discussed in Paragraph 35 of the Explanatory Notes, there are differences in the company gross operating profits (CGOP) estimates contained in this release and the estimate of gross operating surplus (GOS) in the Australian National Accounts. This quarter's estimate of CGOP has fallen significantly. A significant contributor to the fall has been losses on inventory due to falling crude oil prices, with the Manufacturing and Wholesale trade industries particularly affected. Such losses are not included in GOS, as an inventory valuation adjustment is made in the compilation of the national accounts to remove the impact of changes in inventory prices from the CGOP estimate.

REVISIONS IN THIS ISSUE

As is usually the case after the initial release of a quarter's estimates, revisions have been made to the March quarter 2003 estimates as a result of responses received or revised after the publication of the previous issue. The new base and reference years and re-weighting for chain volume measures and the use of the concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology has also resulted in revisions to previously released estimates. The net effect on March quarter 2003 estimates of these revisions has been to adjust: the seasonally adjusted chain volume estimates for total inventories by +0.5%, Manufacturing income from sales of goods and services by +4.3% and wholesale trade income from sales of goods and services by -0.8%; seasonally adjusted current price estimates for company gross operating profits by -2.0%; and original current price estimates for wages and salaries by -0.3%.

INDUSTRY TREND ESTIMATES


TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES

Company gross operating profits

graph: Company gross operating profits


Inventories

graph: Inventories



The current price trend estimate for total company gross operating profits has decreased in the latest two quarters following six quarters of sustained growth.

The trend estimate for total inventories (in volume terms) increased 0.8% in the June quarter 2003 following an increase of 0.5% in the previous quarter. The series had been relatively flat in the previous seven quarters.


MINING

Company gross operating profits

Graph: Mining, company gross operating profits


Inventories
Graph: Mining, Inventories



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has decreased for the latest two quarters and is at the lowest level recorded since March quarter 2000.

The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) has decreased throughout 2002-03 after five quarters of growth.


MANUFACTURING

Company gross operating profit
Graph: Manufacturing, company gross operating profits
Inventories

Graph: Manufacturing, inventories


Income, from sales of goods and services

Graph: Manufacturing, income, from sales of goods and services



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has decreased significantly in the latest two quarters after five quarters of growth.

The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) increased 0.4% in June quarter 2003 after being flat in the previous quarter.

The trend estimate for income from sales of goods and services (in volume terms) was relatively flat following nine quarters of growth.


CONSTRUCTION

Company gross operating profits

Graph: Construction, Company gross operating profits



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits estimate fell by 1.4% in June quarter 2003 after several years of growth.


WHOLESALE TRADE

Company gross operating profits

Graph: wholesale trade, company gross operating profits
Inventories

graph: wholesale trade, inventories

Income from sales of goods and services

Graph: wholesale trade, income from slaes of goods and services


The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has decreased in the latest two quarters following a period of consistent growth since March quarter 1999.

The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) has been growing at an increasing rate over the past six quarters.

The trend estimate for income from sales of goods and services (in volume terms) has been growing steadily over the latest ten quarters.


RETAIL TRADE

Company gross operating profits


Inventories


Income from sales of goods and services



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has decreased in the latest two quarters after peaking in December quarter 2002. This followed eight quarters of sustained growth.

The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) has increased steadily in the latest three quarters after decreases in the previous four quarters.

The trend estimate for income from sales of goods and services (in volume terms) increased marginally in each quarter of 2002-03.




TRANSPORT AND STORAGE

Company gross operating profits

Graph: transport and storage, company gross operating profits
Income from sales of goods and services

Graph: transport and storage, income from sales of goods and services


The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has decreased in the latest two quarters, following increases in the previous six quarters.

The trend estimate for income from sales of goods and services (in volume terms) has decreased in the latest three quarters following seven quarters of growth.


PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES

Company gross operating profits

graph: PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES, company gross operating profits
Income from sales of goods and services

Graph: PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES, income from sales of goods and services



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has decreased strongly throughout 2002-03 following quite strong growth in the previous year.

The trend estimate for income from sales of goods and services (in volume terms) has been declining since the peak of June quarter 2001, with falls of around 1% in each of the past four quarters.

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