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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Mar 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 21/04/2005   
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PUBLICATION

This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

As advised in the February 2005 issue of this publication, Autoregressive Moving Averages (ARIMA) modelling has been incorporated into the seasonal adjustment process for the majority of the new motor vehicle series and all series have a changed treatment of the trading day component. As a result of these changes the seasonally adjusted and, to a lesser extent, the trend series have been revised. For further information, see paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes.


MARCH 2005 KEY POINTS

Trend

The March 2005 trend estimate (83,417) for sales of new motor vehicles increased 0.2% on the February 2005 estimate. It is the fifteenth consecutive monthly increase in the trend estimate. Compared with March 2004 (78,214), the trend estimate has increased 6.7%.

March 2005 sales of new sports utility vehicles recorded a trend increase of 1.2% over the previous month. Sales of new passenger vehicles increased slightly (0.3%) while sales of other new vehicles decreased 0.9% over this time.

The Australian Capital Territory (1.9%) and the Northern Territory (1.6%) recorded the largest increases in the trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles in March 2005. Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania all recorded trend decreases of 0.5%.


Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of new motor vehicles for March 2005 recorded a decrease (-3.7%) compared with February 2005. Sales of passenger vehicles and other new vehicles decreased 4.2% and 4.5% respectively, while sales of sports utility vehicles decreased 1.6% over this time.

Tasmania (3.2%) and the Australian Capital Territory (1.3%) recorded increases in the seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of new motor vehicles. All other states and territories recorded decreases, with the Northern Territory recording the largest decrease (-9.8%).

Sales Of New Motor Vehicles, March 2005
NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.(a)
NT(a)
ACT(a)
Aust.

Vehicle Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
26,370
21,161
17,200
5,410
7,780
1,792
776
1,370
81,859
Trend
26,803
21,593
17,713
5,481
7,927
1,769
784
1,347
83,417


Percentage Change From Previous Month
Seasonally Adjusted
-3.1
-2.7
-6.5
-4.3
-3.8
3.2
-9.8
1.3
-3.7
Trend
0.6
-0.5
0.6
0.6
-0.5
-0.5
1.6
1.9
0.2


Percentage Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
2.1
3.6
2.2
3.7
5.3
26.5
1.3
15.1
3.5
Trend
5.1
5.7
7.8
5.6
9.9
19.4
5.5
11.6
6.7

(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.


NOTES

TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1The April 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the March 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.8%.
2The April 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the March 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.8%.

The percentage change of 3.8% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.8%.


graph: Trend Revisions

SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

graph: Summary - Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates







Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales, Total Vehicles - Short Term




Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Sports utility vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change passenger vehicles (%)
Change sports utility vehicles (%)
Change other vehicles (%)
Change total vehicles (%)

Original

2004January
40,715
12,291
11,791
64,797
-18.3
-7.6
-19.5
-16.7
February
47,876
12,865
15,136
75,877
17.6
4.7
28.4
17.1
March
53,728
15,005
17,313
86,046
12.2
16.6
14.4
13.4
April
44,079
12,351
14,875
71,305
-18.0
-17.7
-14.1
-17.1
May
46,168
15,052
17,059
78,279
4.7
21.9
14.7
9.8
June
58,284
17,981
20,947
97,212
26.2
19.5
22.8
24.2
July
46,724
14,442
15,869
77,035
-19.8
-19.7
-24.2
-20.8
August
48,649
14,910
15,685
79,244
4.1
3.2
-1.2
2.9
September
49,911
14,715
15,826
80,452
2.6
-1.3
0.9
1.5
October
52,290
13,907
15,470
81,667
4.8
-5.5
-2.2
1.5
November
52,888
15,257
16,190
84,335
1.1
9.7
4.7
3.3
December
48,673
14,311
15,996
78,980
-8.0
-6.2
-1.2
-6.3
2005January
43,075
13,826
12,664
69,565
-11.5
-3.4
-20.8
-11.9
February
50,645
15,478
14,886
81,009
17.6
11.9
17.5
16.5
March
53,280
17,348
15,798
86,426
5.2
12.1
6.1
6.7

Seasonally Adjusted

2004January
48,720
13,999
15,439
78,158
-0.3
4.0
3.1
1.1
February
49,054
13,290
15,925
78,269
0.7
-5.1
3.1
0.1
March
49,023
13,547
16,506
79,076
-0.1
1.9
3.6
1.0
April
48,459
13,337
15,934
77,730
-1.2
-1.6
-3.5
-1.7
May
47,720
14,465
16,008
78,193
-1.5
8.5
0.5
0.6
June
49,551
14,445
15,500
79,496
3.8
-0.1
-3.2
1.7
July
47,440
14,719
16,005
78,164
-4.3
1.9
3.3
-1.7
August
48,320
14,856
15,818
78,994
1.9
0.9
-1.2
1.1
September
50,110
15,199
16,290
81,599
3.7
2.3
3.0
3.3
October
51,568
15,387
16,464
83,419
2.9
1.2
1.1
2.2
November
50,008
15,047
15,756
80,811
-3.0
-2.2
-4.3
-3.1
December
47,953
14,448
16,096
78,497
-4.1
-4.0
2.2
-2.9
2005January
52,348
15,983
16,994
85,325
9.2
10.6
5.6
8.7
February
52,632
16,391
16,020
85,043
0.5
2.6
-5.7
-0.3
March
50,431
16,136
15,292
81,859
-4.2
-1.6
-4.5
-3.7

Trend

2004January
48,865
13,440
15,554
77,859
-0.9
1.2
1.7
0.0
February
48,661
13,562
15,801
78,024
-0.4
0.9
1.6
0.2
March
48,575
13,682
15,957
78,214
-0.2
0.9
1.0
0.2
April
48,467
13,845
16,006
78,318
-0.2
1.2
0.3
0.1
May
48,362
14,085
15,979
78,426
-0.2
1.7
-0.2
0.1
June
48,437
14,400
15,939
78,776
0.2
2.2
-0.3
0.4
July
48,690
14,697
15,916
79,303
0.5
2.1
-0.1
0.7
August
49,033
14,910
15,958
79,901
0.7
1.4
0.3
0.8
September
49,454
15,043
16,073
80,570
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.8
October
49,892
15,160
16,194
81,246
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
November
50,288
15,314
16,249
81,851
0.8
1.0
0.3
0.7
December
50,644
15,519
16,233
82,396
0.7
1.3
-0.1
0.7
2005January
50,946
15,749
16,162
82,857
0.6
1.5
-0.4
0.6
February
51,199
15,977
16,055
83,231
0.5
1.4
-0.7
0.5
March
51,339
16,170
15,908
83,417
0.3
1.2
-0.9
0.2

Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.(a)
NT(a)
ACT(a)
Aust.
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)

Original

2004January
21,216
16,857
13,403
4,334
6,249
1,193
498
1,047
64,797
February
24,955
19,727
15,901
5,059
7,113
1,297
686
1,139
75,877
March
28,118
22,137
18,611
5,561
8,086
1,343
912
1,278
86,046
April
23,033
19,083
14,831
4,670
6,529
1,229
812
1,118
71,305
May
25,649
20,106
16,373
5,215
7,296
1,513
918
1,209
78,279
June
31,438
23,929
22,026
6,436
8,969
1,982
958
1,474
97,212
July
25,031
19,410
17,141
4,949
7,228
1,449
646
1,181
77,035
August
24,795
20,850
17,269
5,414
7,513
1,585
677
1,141
79,244
September
25,241
20,821
17,188
5,289
8,177
1,855
739
1,142
80,452
October
25,621
22,747
16,079
5,413
7,875
1,981
709
1,242
81,667
November
26,619
23,052
17,117
5,450
8,157
1,944
694
1,302
84,335
December
24,315
21,700
16,537
4,998
7,341
2,245
647
1,197
78,980
2005January
22,467
18,015
14,530
4,466
6,931
1,478
560
1,118
69,565
February
25,754
20,580
17,837
5,489
7,880
1,431
776
1,262
81,009
March
27,474
21,963
19,114
5,452
8,623
1,571
888
1,341
86,426

Seasonally Adjusted

2004January
25,632
20,562
16,094
5,333
7,187
1,476
659
1,215
78,158
February
25,647
20,527
16,326
5,152
7,123
1,541
743
1,210
78,269
March
25,834
20,430
16,834
5,217
7,388
1,417
766
1,190
79,076
April
25,252
20,490
16,261
5,152
7,105
1,481
765
1,224
77,730
May
25,086
20,323
16,613
5,194
7,475
1,528
785
1,189
78,193
June
25,486
20,433
17,383
5,247
7,212
1,809
724
1,202
79,496
July
25,218
19,712
17,101
5,046
7,630
1,554
690
1,213
78,164
August
24,987
20,642
17,011
5,324
7,624
1,546
729
1,131
78,994
September
25,650
21,042
17,262
5,399
8,425
1,810
806
1,205
81,599
October
25,935
22,719
17,294
5,633
7,922
1,893
764
1,259
83,419
November
25,533
21,469
16,893
5,257
8,027
1,690
708
1,234
80,811
December
25,252
21,081
16,715
4,738
7,160
1,684
702
1,165
78,497
2005January
27,148
22,422
17,871
5,613
8,352
1,864
738
1,317
85,325
February
27,206
21,754
18,394
5,653
8,086
1,737
860
1,353
85,043
March
26,370
21,161
17,200
5,410
7,780
1,792
776
1,370
81,859

Trend

2004January
25,597
20,501
15,971
5,231
7,163
1,481
691
1,224
77,859
February
25,552
20,476
16,196
5,209
7,191
1,467
720
1,213
78,024
March
25,511
20,431
16,438
5,189
7,213
1,482
743
1,207
78,214
April
25,428
20,336
16,659
5,171
7,251
1,515
757
1,201
78,318
May
25,318
20,249
16,846
5,168
7,329
1,558
763
1,195
78,426
June
25,259
20,288
16,998
5,203
7,467
1,605
764
1,192
78,776
July
25,261
20,470
17,088
5,250
7,631
1,651
760
1,192
79,303
August
25,294
20,774
17,115
5,294
7,784
1,693
755
1,192
79,901
September
25,401
21,151
17,115
5,327
7,907
1,726
747
1,196
80,570
October
25,590
21,495
17,132
5,351
7,978
1,748
743
1,209
81,246
November
25,834
21,714
17,199
5,372
7,996
1,761
744
1,231
81,851
December
26,118
21,787
17,333
5,392
7,985
1,773
749
1,259
82,396
2005January
26,392
21,764
17,482
5,420
7,973
1,776
760
1,290
82,857
February
26,636
21,695
17,615
5,451
7,963
1,777
772
1,322
83,231
March
26,803
21,593
17,713
5,481
7,927
1,769
784
1,347
83,417

(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.

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