Australian Bureau of Statistics

Rate the ABS website
ABS Home > Statistics > By Release Date
5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Dec 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/03/2007  Reissue
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product

NOTE: An incorrect deflator was used in compiling the buildings and structures asset class for the Mining volumes series. As a consequence the chain volume measures for the total new capital expenditure, Mining and the buildings and structures series have been overstated. The key figures, relevant graphs, totals in publication tables 3, 11 and 13 and the movements in table 4 have been altered and the totals in spreadsheet tables 3A, 3B, 5A, 5B and 5C have been altered. Figures for other quarters and for other tables are not affected.



DECEMBER KEY FIGURES

Dec Qtr 06
Sep Qtr 06 to Dec Qtr 06
Dec Qtr 05 to Dec Qtr 06
$m
% change
% change

Trend estimates(a)
Total new capital expenditure
17 814
-2.3
-0.1
Buildings & structures
7 018
-2.6
5.9
Equipment, plant & machinery
10 672
-2.8
-4.6
Seasonally adjusted(a)
Total new capital expenditure
17 859
-0.2
-2.5
Buildings & structures
6 984
0.3
5.2
Equipment, plant & machinery
10 724
-1.9
-7.2

(a) In volume terms.

New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms
Graph: New Capital Expenditure in Volume Terms



DECEMBER KEY POINTS


ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)
  • The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure (in volume terms) decreased by 2.3% in the December Quarter 2006. There was a small fall of 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms.
  • Trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery decreased 2.8% in the December quarter 2006, the third consecutive fall. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate decreased by 1.9%, the third consecutive fall, following four quarters of growth.
  • The trend estimate for buildings and structures decreased 2.6% this quarter, the second consecutive fall, however levels remain historically high. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate increased 0.3% following a large decrease in the September quarter.


EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT TERMS)
  • This issue includes the fifth estimate for 2006-07 and the first estimate for 2007-08.
  • Estimate 5 for 2006-07 is $74,385m, which is 9.2% higher than the comparable estimate for 2005-06 and 5.2% higher than the fourth estimate for 2006-07.
  • Estimate 1 for 2007-08 is $62,743m. This is 17.7% higher than the first estimate for 2006-07.
  • See pages 6 to 9 for further commentary on expectations data.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE (QUARTER) Release Date
March 2007 31 May 2007
June 2007 30 August 2007



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

An incorrect deflator was used in compiling the buildings and structures asset class for the Mining volumes series. As a consequence the chain volume measures for the total new capital expenditure, Mining and the buildings and structures series have been overstated. The key figures, relevant graphs on pages 4 and 5, totals in tables 3, 11 and 13 and the movements in table 4 have been altered. Figures for other quarters and for other tables are not affected.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Scott Johnston on Sydney (02) 9268 4357.



SUMMARY COMMENTARY

TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

The trend estimate for total capital expenditure in the December quarter 2006 decreased 2.3%, the second consecutive fall after 21 consecutive increases. Seasonally adjusted there was a small fall this quarter (0.2%). A fall in equipment, plant and machinery of 1.9% seasonally adjusted was offset by a 0.3% rise in buildings and structures. Total capex remains at very high levels.

Graph: Total Capital Expenditure, CVM



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

The trend estimate for buildings and structures decreased 2.6% this quarter, the second consecutive fall after growth in the previous 18 quarters. Both Mining (-5.7%) and Manufacturing (-4.3%) fell this quarter. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate for total buildings and structures increased 0.3% following a large decrease in the September quarter.

Graph: Building, CVM



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery decreased 2.8% in the December quarter 2006, the third consecutive fall. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate has decreased by 1.9%. The strong increase in Mining has been offset by falls in Other selected industries.

Graph: Equipment, Plant and Machinery, CVM



MINING

The trend estimate for Mining decreased 3.7% this quarter, the second consecutive decrease after growth in the previous seven quarters. In seasonally adjusted terms, there was a large rise of 7.8% following a large fall in the September 2006 quarter. This rise has been driven by equipment, plant and machinery. Levels remain historically high for the industry.

Graph: Mining, CVM



MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing trend estimate fell by 1.9% in the December quarter 2006 which is the fourth consecutive fall. Both asset types experienced small declines. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate fell by 0.5%, which is the fifth consecutive fall.

Graph: Manufacturing, CVM



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

The trend estimate for Other Selected Industries has decreased by 1.5% following a small fall (-1.1%) in September quarter 2006. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate decreased by 3.7% following a small fall of 1.0% in September quarter 2006. The rise seen in the building estimate has been offset by estimated equipment investment falling for the quarter. Other selected industries capital expenditure remains at historically high levels.

Graph: Other Selected Industries, CVM



FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 24 to 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:

Diagram: Composition of estimate



TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

The fifth estimate for 2006-07 is $74,385m which is 9.2% higher than the comparable estimate for 2005-06 and slightly higher (5.2%) than the fourth estimate for 2006-07. Most industries are relatively unchanged since Estimate 4, with the exception of Mining (14.7%) and Construction (15.7%) which have had strong increases.


The first estimate for 2007-08 is 17.7% higher than the first estimate for 2006-07 and is the highest first estimate ever recorded. The increase is mainly driven by a very strong rise in Mining expectations (71.2%).


Diagram: Total Capital Expenditure




BUILDING AND STRUCTURES

Estimate 5 for 2006-07 is 30.7% higher than Estimate 5 for 2005-06. Mining ( 68.1%) and Other services (38.2%) had strong increases. Estimate 5 has increased 6.7% from the previous estimate for 2006-07.


Estimate 1 for 2007-08 is 47.0% stronger than Estimate 1 for 2006-07. This increase is dominated by Mining expectations almost doubling (91.9%) the first expectation for 2006-07.


Diagram: Building and Structures




EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

The fifth estimate for 2006-07 has fallen 4.9% since the comparable estimate for 2005-06. Estimate 5 is slightly higher (3.9%) than Estimate 4 for 2006-07.


The first estimate for 2007-08 is 4.0% lower than Estimate 1 for 2006-07. Manufacturing (-17.9%), Construction (-48.3%) and Finance and insurance (-19.3%) were the major industries contributing to this fall.


Diagram: Equipment, Plant and Machinery




MINING

Estimate 5 for 2006-07 for Mining is 49.3% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2005-06 and 14.7% higher than Estimate 4 for 2006-07.


The first estimate for 2007-08 for Mining is 71.2% higher than Estimate 1 for 2006-07 and the highest level ever recorded for Mining.


Diagram: Mining




MANUFACTURING

The fifth estimate for 2006-07 is 16.2% lower than Estimate 5 for 2005-06, and relatively unchanged from the previous estimate for 2006-07.


Estimate 1 for 2007-08 is 19.7% lower than the comparable estimate for 2006-07.


Diagram: Manufacturing




OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Estimate 5 for 2006-07 is 2.5% stronger than the comparable estimate for 2005-06.


The first estimate for 2007-08 is slightly higher (3.3%) than Estimate 1 for 2006-07. Buildings and structures which increased by 16.3% more than accounted for the rise with equipment, plant and machinery expectations down by 3.0%. There was a large fall in Construction industry expectations (-48.2%).


Diagram: Other selected industries




IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS


PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES

The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.


The following graphs, with accompanying commentary, show the projected capital expenditure series based on December quarter 2006 data, which includes expected expenditure up to and including the June quarter 2008. Please see paragraphs 29 to 33 of the Explanatory Notes for further details about the methodology and cautionary notes for these series.



TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Current price trend estimates for total Capital Expenditure has flattened in the past two quarters following significant increases in the past two financial years. Following this settling period, expectations suggest that the estimate will achieve sustained growth throughout 2007-08. This is driven by the ongoing strength in buildings and structures, particularly in the mining sector.

Graph: Projected Total Expenditure



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

Current price trend estimates for buildings and structures have been strong in recent years with a flattening out over the past three quarters. With the strong expectations for mining for the remainder of the financial year and into 2007-08 the indication is for sustained growth for buildings and structures.

Graph: Projected Building Expenditure



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Current price trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery displayed strong growth from June 2004. This lasted two financial years. In the past three quarters the trend has reversed and has been in decline. Expectations are that for the remainder of this year and for the following financial year the trend will continue to fall, although at a reduced rate.

Graph: Projected Equipment Expenditure



MINING

Current price trend estimates for Mining have increased sharply over the 2005-06 financial year being driven by growth on buildings and structures. This has slowed in the past two quarters. Expectations suggest that capital expenditure will again strongly increase over the second half of this financial year and throughout 2007-08.

Graph: Projected Mining Expenditure



MANUFACTURING

After the peak attained in 2005-06, current price trend estimates for Manufacturing have been on the decline. Expectations are that this weakness will continue for the remainder of the 2006-07 before steadying in the following financial year..

Graph: Projected Manufacturing Expenditure



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Current price trend estimates for Other Selected Industries have maintained a steady growth rate for several years. Expectations suggest that this growth rate will continue to rise steadily over the second half of this financial year and throughout 2007-08.

Graph: Projected Other Selected Industries Expenditure

Bookmark and Share. Opens in a new window

Commonwealth of Australia 2014

Unless otherwise noted, content on this website is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Australia Licence together with any terms, conditions and exclusions as set out in the website Copyright notice. For permission to do anything beyond the scope of this licence and copyright terms contact us.