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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Jan 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 21/02/2007   
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The Publication

This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

JANUARY 2007 KEY POINTS

Trend

The January 2007 trend estimate for new motor vehicle sales (83 866) increased 0.9% compared with the December 2006 estimate. This was the eighth consecutive positive trend estimate. Since January 2006, the trend estimate has increased 3.8%.

All of the vehicle types recorded increases for at least five consecutive months of trend estimates. The largest increase from December 2006 to January 2007 was recorded by sports utility vehicles at 1.2%. Passenger vehicles increased 1.0% and other vehicle types increased 0.5%.

Compared with January 2006, increases have been recorded in sports utility vehicles (6.5%) and passenger vehicles (5.2%). However, the trend estimate for other vehicles has decreased by 2.5%.

All states and territories except Tasmania recorded increases in the trend estimate for total sales of new motor vehicles in January 2007 compared with December 2006. The ACT (1.3%) and New South Wales and Queensland (both 1.2%) recorded the largest increases. Tasmania decreased 0.7% over this time.

Seasonally adjusted

The January 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate for total sales of new motor vehicles (86 465), increased 5.3% compared with the December 2006 estimate.

All states recorded increases in monthly seasonally adjusted estimates, with South Australia recording the largest increase (10.5%), followed by Tasmania and Victoria (9.3% and 7.4% respectively). Western Australia recorded the lowest increase of 1.1%.

Over this period all vehicle types recorded increases. The other vehicles category recorded the largest increase (6.5%) followed by passenger vehicles (5.6%) and sports utility vehicles (3.0%).

New motor vehicles sales January 2007
NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.(a)
NT(a)
ACT(a)
Aust.

Vehicle sales
Seasonally adjusted
26 625
21 834
18 995
5 356
9 975
1 535
835
1 310
86 465
Trend
25 801
20 835
18 663
5 057
9 874
1 542
813
1 281
83 866


Percentage change from previous month
Seasonally adjusted
6.0
7.4
2.8
10.5
1.1
9.3
4.8
5.0
5.3
Trend
1.2
0.7
1.2
0.9
0.5
-0.7
0.7
1.3
0.9

Percentage change from previous year
Seasonally adjusted
5.7
4.0
6.1
1.7
13.5
-2.7
4.9
5.1
5.8
Trend
4.1
-1.0
6.7
-3.2
13.4
-1.2
5.7
6.5
3.8

(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUERELEASE DATE
February 200721 March 2007
March 200720 April 2007
April 200722 May 2007
May 2007
June 2007
July 2007
20 June 2007
20 July 2007
22 August 2007

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


The "what-if" analysis is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1The February 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the January 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.4%.
2The February 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the January 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.4%.

The percentage change of 3.4% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.4%.
Graph: Trend revisions


SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES.
Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales, Total Vehicles-LongTerm

Graph: New Motor vehicle Sales, Total Vehicles-Short Term


Table 1: New motor vehicle sales by type of vehicle

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Sports utility vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change passenger vehicles (%)
Change sports utility vehicles (%)
Change other vehicles (%)
Change total vehicles (%)

Original

2005November
52 751
14 252
16 535
83 538
8.9
14.0
8.9
9.7
December
47 945
15 046
16 286
79 277
-9.1
5.6
-1.5
-5.1
2006January
43 761
13 251
12 991
70 003
-8.7
-11.9
-20.2
-11.7
February
48 483
13 506
15 457
77 446
10.8
1.9
19.0
10.6
March
53 188
15 896
18 072
87 156
9.7
17.7
16.9
12.5
April
42 307
11 901
14 442
68 650
-20.5
-25.1
-20.1
-21.2
May
50 683
14 816
17 958
83 457
19.8
24.5
24.3
21.6
June
57 026
18 079
21 343
96 448
12.5
22.0
18.8
15.6
July
48 798
13 279
15 485
77 562
-14.4
-26.6
-27.4
-19.6
August
52 030
13 539
16 092
81 661
6.6
2.0
3.9
5.3
September
51 388
13 208
15 397
79 993
-1.2
-2.4
-4.3
-2.0
October
50 532
13 921
15 477
79 930
-1.7
5.4
0.5
-0.1
November
51 850
15 193
16 254
83 297
2.6
9.1
5.0
4.2
December
48 348
14 258
14 457
77 063
-6.8
-6.2
-11.1
-7.5
2007January
49 189
14 303
13 444
76 936
1.7
0.3
-7.0
-0.2

Seasonally adjusted

2005November
50 409
14 212
16 630
81 251
2.3
2.0
3.1
2.4
December
49 870
14 937
17 023
81 830
-1.1
5.1
2.4
0.7
2006January
50 606
14 445
16 704
81 755
1.5
-3.3
-1.9
-0.1
February
49 791
14 077
16 604
80 472
-1.6
-2.5
-0.6
-1.6
March
48 547
13 959
16 595
79 101
-2.5
-0.8
-0.1
-1.7
April
49 356
13 916
16 328
79 600
1.7
-0.3
-1.6
0.6
May
49 517
13 954
16 300
79 771
0.3
0.3
-0.2
0.2
June
48 793
14 357
15 623
78 773
-1.5
2.9
-4.2
-1.3
July
50 709
14 192
16 101
81 002
3.9
-1.1
3.1
2.8
August
50 291
13 072
15 903
79 266
-0.8
-7.9
-1.2
-2.1
September
51 048
14 560
15 978
81 586
1.5
11.4
0.5
2.9
October
50 341
15 034
16 239
81 614
-1.4
3.3
1.6
0.0
November
50 195
14 849
15 936
80 980
-0.3
-1.2
-1.9
-0.8
December
51 496
14 825
15 775
82 096
2.6
-0.2
-1.0
1.4
2007January
54 383
15 276
16 806
86 465
5.6
3.0
6.5
5.3

Trend

2005November
50 228
14 592
16 748
81 568
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2
-0.5
December
50 024
14 432
16 720
81 176
-0.4
-1.1
-0.2
-0.5
2006January
49 799
14 280
16 689
80 768
-0.4
-1.1
-0.2
-0.5
February
49 564
14 188
16 625
80 377
-0.5
-0.6
-0.4
-0.5
March
49 366
14 118
16 509
79 993
-0.4
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
April
49 275
14 027
16 332
79 634
-0.2
-0.6
-1.1
-0.4
May
49 365
13 939
16 152
79 456
0.2
-0.6
-1.1
-0.2
June
49 632
13 932
16 032
79 596
0.5
-0.1
-0.7
0.2
July
49 904
14 004
15 961
79 869
0.5
0.5
-0.4
0.3
August
50 176
14 140
15 938
80 254
0.5
1.0
-0.1
0.5
September
50 456
14 337
15 966
80 759
0.6
1.4
0.2
0.6
October
50 828
14 572
16 027
81 427
0.7
1.6
0.4
0.8
November
51 307
14 808
16 102
82 217
0.9
1.6
0.5
1.0
December
51 879
15 016
16 195
83 090
1.1
1.4
0.6
1.1
2007January
52 394
15 203
16 269
83 866
1.0
1.2
0.5
0.9

Table 2: New motor vehicle sales by state/territory of registration

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.(a)
NT(a)
ACT(a)
Aust.
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)
(No.)

Original

2005November
25 716
22 428
17 181
5 500
9 107
1 667
690
1 249
83 538
December
23 054
22 110
16 208
5 335
8 664
2 080
690
1 136
79 277
2006January
21 995
17 876
15 107
4 380
7 604
1 295
616
1 130
70 003
February
24 495
19 979
16 452
5 085
8 165
1 373
731
1 166
77 446
March
27 165
21 461
19 833
5 195
9 750
1 540
913
1 299
87 156
April
21 171
17 636
14 820
4 619
7 507
1 129
764
1 004
68 650
May
25 124
20 776
18 774
5 601
9 472
1 623
863
1 224
83 457
June
28 560
23 015
23 091
6 164
11 170
1 936
1 058
1 454
96 448
July
23 688
19 322
17 910
4 794
8 720
1 334
679
1 115
77 562
August
24 223
21 043
18 124
5 107
9 736
1 436
768
1 224
81 661
September
24 267
20 449
17 061
4 903
9 716
1 688
682
1 227
79 993
October
November
24 379
25 418
20 785
20 739
16 625
18 076
4 781
5 116
9 591
9 972
1 797
1 973
762
733
1 210
1 270
79 930
83 297
December
22 927
19 790
16 551
4 700
9 471
1 748
688
1 188
77 063
2007January
24 429
19 000
16 769
4 620
8 929
1 285
651
1 253
76 936

Seasonally adjusted

2005November
24 773
21 470
17 400
5 324
8 894
1 469
721
1 200
81 251
December
24 906
21 897
17 478
5 292
8 723
1 585
769
1 180
81 830
2006January
25 179
20 990
17 910
5 268
8 788
1 577
796
1 247
81 755
February
24 982
20 862
17 241
5 229
8 537
1 621
791
1 209
80 472
March
24 458
19 909
17 590
4 850
8 724
1 592
773
1 205
79 101
April
24 095
20 454
17 391
5 334
8 879
1 500
750
1 197
79 600
May
23 908
20 141
17 779
5 235
9 234
1 591
739
1 144
79 771
June
24 028
19 442
17 498
5 032
9 070
1 707
761
1 235
78 773
July
24 224
20 456
18 253
5 126
9 505
1 525
745
1 168
81 002
August
23 934
20 227
17 276
4 916
9 500
1 418
797
1 198
79 266
September
24 821
20 804
17 546
5 054
9 668
1 682
766
1 245
81 586
October
25 091
20 435
17 845
4 907
9 636
1 654
835
1 211
81 614
November
24 720
19 752
18 324
4 914
9 603
1 652
760
1 255
80 980
December
25 122
20 328
18 480
4 845
9 871
1 405
797
1 248
82 096
2007January
26 625
21 834
18 995
5 356
9 975
1 535
835
1 310
86 465

Trend

2005November
24 934
21 366
17 656
5 274
8 749
1 596
769
1 224
81 568
December
24 858
21 248
17 544
5 255
8 725
1 570
766
1 210
81 176
2006January
24 782
21 041
17 483
5 224
8 705
1 561
769
1 203
80 768
February
24 684
20 757
17 480
5 193
8 721
1 570
770
1 202
80 377
March
24 514
20 443
17 529
5 169
8 788
1 582
768
1 200
79 993
April
24 279
20 173
17 585
5 150
8 905
1 585
762
1 195
79 634
May
24 080
20 048
17 613
5 131
9 063
1 577
755
1 189
79 456
June
24 031
20 077
17 627
5 108
9 235
1 574
756
1 188
79 596
July
24 099
20 148
17 638
5 063
9 385
1 580
762
1 194
79 869
August
24 282
20 220
17 681
5 008
9 499
1 587
773
1 204
80 254
September
24 539
20 297
17 783
4 965
9 586
1 588
784
1 217
80 759
October
24 837
20 397
17 962
4 957
9 666
1 582
792
1 234
81 427
November
25 159
20 524
18 195
4 977
9 745
1 570
799
1 248
82 217
December
25 490
20 692
18 447
5 014
9 823
1 553
807
1 264
83 090
2007January
25 801
20 835
18 663
5 057
9 874
1 542
813
1 281
83 866

(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.

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