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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, May 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/07/2006   
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MAY KEY FIGURES

May '06
Apr '06 to May '06
May '05 to May '06
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
458.0
-0.4
0.4
Seasonally adjusted
444.1
-3.9
. .
Original
345.5
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend(a)
399.6
0.5
1.3
Seasonally adjusted
402.8
-2.7
. .
Original
402.9
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



MAY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • Trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during May 2006 (458,000 movements) decreased by 0.4% compared with April 2006. This followed a minimal monthly decrease for March 2006 and a monthly decrease of 0.4% for April 2006.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.8% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2006 (461,700 movements) and 0.4% higher than in May 2005.
  • During May 2006, short-term resident departures (399,600 movements) increased by 0.5% compared with April 2006. This followed monthly increases of 0.4% for March 2006 and 0.6% for April 2006.
  • The short-term resident departures trend series was relatively stable after the trend break in October 2005, with increases observed in recent months.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during May 2006 (444,100 movements) decreased by 3.9% compared with April 2006 and followed monthly decreases of 1.1% for March 2006 and 0.8% for April 2006.
  • Short-term resident departures for May 2006 (402,800 movements) decreased by 2.7% compared with April 2006 and followed a monthly decrease of 0.9% for March 2006 and a monthly increase of 8.5% for April 2006.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 345,500 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 402,900 short-term resident departures from Australia during May 2006.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
June 2006 3 August 2006
July 2006 4 September 2006
August 2006 5 October 2006
September 2006 6 November 2006
October 2006 5 December 2006
November 2006 11 January 2007



EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for June 2006 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 19 July 2006. These estimates can be accessed by going to the ABS web site at <http://www.abs.gov.au>. Select All statistics - Access to all ABS products & statistics, then By Catalogue Number, then 3. Demography, then 34. Migration. Choose Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100 for short-term movements and to the nearest 10 for permanent and long-term movements. As a result, sums of the components may not add exactly to totals. Analysis featured in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication is based on unrounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in May 2006 (458,000 movements) were 0.4% higher than in May 2005 and 0.4% lower than in April 2006. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 0.8% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2006 (461,700 movements).


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during May 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with April 2006 and May 2005.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - May 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 06 to May 06
May 05 to May 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
90.4
91.0
81.8
-
-3.4
Japan
50.1
49.6
41.7
-4.3
-5.8
United States of America
40.0
37.6
29.9
0.9
5.6
United Kingdom
61.5
58.4
28.8
0.3
4.4
China
26.1
24.9
19.7
-0.5
23.8
Singapore
20.7
18.7
17.8
-0.7
-10.2
Korea
20.6
20.0
17.1
0.7
-5.6
Malaysia
11.6
10.7
12.7
-1.9
-18.6
India
7.0
6.6
10.5
0.9
30.3
Hong Kong
13.7
13.7
9.1
-0.3
1.1

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in May 2006 (399,600 movements) were 0.5% higher than in April 2006. Following the trend break in October 2005 the series was relatively stable, with increases observed in recent months.


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during May 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with April 2006 and May 2005.


A trend break was introduced from October 2005 (see Explanatory Note 22). In original terms, short-term resident departures to Indonesia ranked 4th in September 2005 and fell from the top ten in December 2006. In May 2006 short-term resident departures to Indonesia were ranked in 9th position.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - May 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 06 to May 06
May 05 to May 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
69.5
69.9
51.4
-0.1
0.2
United Kingdom
31.4
32.8
49.2
-
-7.6
United States of America
37.1
35.1
36.7
-
7.2
China
20.8
23.4
20.3
3.4
5.0
Thailand
23.1
23.3
17.4
0.8
49.8
Italy
9.0
9.6
16.0
0.6
23.8
Singapore
18.9
17.0
15.5
1.4
26.4
Fiji
16.7
17.2
14.8
0.2
2.5
Indonesia(a)
15.5
15.1
13.1
-2.1
-48.5
Canada
8.1
8.8
13.1
7.4
9.4

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - THAILAND

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for May 2006 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Thailand represented 1% (6,000 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the ten year period to May 2006 the high point in the series was in September 1996 (8,100 movements) while the low point was in April 1998 (3,400 movements). The trend then increased slowly until late 2000 and has since remained relatively stable. In May 2006 the trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals from Thailand was 7% lower than May 2005 (6,400 movements).

THAILAND, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: THAILAND, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from Thailand in May 2006 stated holiday (37%) as the main reason for journey, followed by business (19%) and visiting friends and relatives (14%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (50%), visiting friends and relatives (18%), and business (15%). The median age of short-term visitor arrivals from Thailand was 38 years (40 years for all visitors) and the median intended duration of stay was 8 days (also 8 days for all visitors).


New South Wales (48%), Victoria (19%) and Queensland and Western Australia (each 13%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from Thailand in May 2006. The main destinations for all short-term visitors to Australia were New South Wales (38%), Queensland (31%), Victoria (18%) and Western Australia (8%).


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates for May 2006 show the number of short-term resident departures to Thailand represented 6% (23,100 movements) of all short-term resident departures. The trend series over the past ten years has been upwards, with minor fluctuations, and strong growth from May 2005. The current month (May 2006) is the high point in the ten year series, while the low point was in September 1996 (6,400 movements). In May 2006 the trend estimate for short-term resident departures to Thailand was 50% higher than May 2005 (15,400 movements).

THAILAND, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: THAILAND, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, 72% of Australian residents travelling to Thailand in May 2006 stated holiday as their main reason for journey, followed by business (10%) and visiting friends and relatives (7%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all Australian residents departing short-term were holiday (44%), visiting friends and relatives (25%) and business (17%). The median age of residents departing short-term to Thailand was 43 years (47 years for all short-term resident departures) and the median intended duration of stay was 13 days (17 days for all short-term resident departures).



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,600 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during May 2006, an increase of 6.6% compared with May 2005 (9,900 movements). People born in the United Kingdom and New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (each 15%), followed by people born India (10%) and China (8%).


There were 5,220 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during May 2006, an increase of 8.9% compared with May 2005 (4,790 movements).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for the United States of America shows the large increase in the seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals in September 2000, during the Olympic Games in Sydney. For the United Kingdom the graph illustrates the long-term increase in the trend series for visitor arrivals. For New Zealand the graph shows, in the trend series, a recent plateau in growth following strong increases which commenced in early 2003.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
United Kingdom
Graph: United Kingdom
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in that country on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that the trend series for departures of Australian residents, which had experienced strong long-term growth, has plateaued since mid 2004. For Indonesia the graph shows the impact of the 12 October 2002 Bali bombing and the reduced level of travel experienced in the next twelve months. The effect of the 1 October 2005 Bali bombing is also evident and another break in the trend series was introduced.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Indonesia
Graph: Indonesia


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