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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Dec 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 18/01/2005   
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NOTES

DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for December 2004 will be released on 8 February 2005.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates at the current end of the series are subject to revision due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

This is the first issue of this publication to include the ABS improved method for removing trading day effects from seasonally adjusted estimates. Please see paragraph 13 of the Explanatory Notes for further information.



FORTHCOMING CHANGES

New standard errors


A new set of standard errors will apply to sampled estimates in this publication from the January 2005 issue. This is because the sample for short-term movements has been increased as a result of a review, resulting in smaller standard errors. New standard errors will be presented in the Standard Errors section of Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) from the January 2005 issue.



EMERGING ISSUES

December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami


The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami may impact on overseas visitor arrivals from, and resident departures to, affected countries. However, it is not possible as yet to gauge the magnitude of this impact or its duration. There may also be breaks in some trend series as a result of this event.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for December 2004 (448,000 movements) increased by 0.6% compared with November 2004 (445,500 movements). This followed similar increases of 0.7% each for October and November 2004.


According to trend estimates, this is the tenth consecutive monthly increase in the series. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 5.0% higher than when the series last troughed in February 2004.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

According to seasonally adjusted estimates, there was little change between short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in November 2004 (453,900) and December 2004 (454,100 movements). This followed increases of 0.1% for October and 4.3% for November 2004.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 597,600 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during December 2004.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - December 2004

Dec 04
Nov 04 to Dec 04
Dec 03 to Dec 04
'000
% change
% change

Trend
448.0
0.6
5.0
Seasonally adjusted
454.1
-
. .
Original
597.6
. .
. .

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov 04
Dec 04
Nov 04 to Dec 04
Dec 03 to Dec 04
Nov 04
Dec 04
Nov 04 to Dec 04
Dec 04
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
87.5
87.2
-0.3
13.1
87.5
87.7
0.2
95.6
Total
98.2
98.0
-0.1
12.4
98.1
98.7
0.6
110.7
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
11.9
11.9
-0.2
1.8
11.5
12.0
4.9
14.4
Netherlands
4.1
4.1
0.6
-0.7
4.1
4.3
4.6
6.4
Sweden
2.8
2.8
1.6
4.3
2.9
2.8
-3.8
6.0
Switzerland
3.4
3.4
0.6
-2.6
3.4
3.3
-1.2
5.7
United Kingdom
55.0
54.8
-0.5
-4.4
52.4
57.4
9.5
109.5
Total
93.2
93.3
-
-1.1
90.5
97.0
7.2
167.5
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.1
4.1
0.4
8.8
4.2
3.9
-6.3
6.6
Total
9.6
9.8
2.3
7.9
9.6
10.8
12.8
17.1
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
5.4
5.4
1.1
8.9
5.5
8.5
55.3
10.1
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
6.7
6.5
-2.3
-7.2
11.4
5.8
-49.2
9.7
Malaysia
15.5
15.4
-0.7
2.6
16.6
15.2
-8.6
19.3
Philippines
2.6
2.7
0.6
1.6
2.7
2.7
-
3.1
Singapore
22.5
23.1
2.8
6.8
23.9
22.8
-4.5
39.3
Thailand
6.5
6.5
-0.2
4.3
6.6
6.5
-1.6
6.3
Total
56.0
56.5
0.9
3.4
63.4
56.0
-11.6
81.5
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
22.2
22.8
2.7
18.0
(c)n.p.
(c)n.p.
(c)n.p.
24.3
Japan
62.8
62.9
0.2
1.3
65.3
57.2
-12.5
61.0
Korea
18.3
18.3
-
2.8
18.8
17.4
-7.5
19.4
Taiwan
8.8
9.1
3.1
7.2
11.3
8.8
-22.2
7.8
Total
125.1
126.6
1.2
6.3
130.1
121.0
-7.0
131.3
AMERICAS
Canada
8.2
8.2
0.1
6.6
8.5
8.7
2.5
12.3
United States of America
35.4
35.3
-0.4
-0.3
34.3
37.3
8.7
43.9
Total
46.2
46.3
0.1
1.7
45.3
49.1
8.5
61.0
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
3.9
4.0
0.7
-9.6
3.9
4.3
10.6
7.1
Total
5.3
5.4
1.2
-8.5
5.3
5.9
10.1
9.7
Total(d)
445.5
448.0
0.6
5.0
453.9
454.1
-
597.6

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as AusStats time series spreadsheets.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.
(d) Includes Southern Asia and not stated/inadequately described.

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