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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Dec 2012 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 16/01/2013   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 12 and 13.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The January 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the December 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

2 The January 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the December 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

The percentage change of 2.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 2.2%. The percentage change has been reviewed and updated following the recent re-analysis of the time series.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 2.2%
(2) Falls by 2.2%
no.
no.
no.

2012
September
95 508
95 475
95 548
October
96 482
96 564
96 371
November
97 258
97 562
96 921
December
97 931
98 475
97 268




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