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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Apr 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 20/05/2004   
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APRIL 2004 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for total new motor vehicles sales increased 0.5% to 78,697 in April 2004 compared with March 2004. The trend estimate for total new motor vehicle sales has recorded an increase for each month since the beginning of the year.

An increase of 4.6% was recorded in the trend estimate for total new motor vehicle sales in April 2004 compared with April 2003.

Sales of passenger vehicles recorded an increase in the trend estimate of 0.4% in April 2004 compared with March 2004. The trend estimate for sales of other vehicles increased by 0.6% over the same period.

Queensland (14.6%) and Northern Territory (12.7%) recorded the highest increases in the trend estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles in April 2004 compared with April 2003. The Australian Capital Territory recorded the only decrease in sales with a fall of 4.3% over the twelve month period.

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles decreased by 1.9% to 77,699 in April 2004 compared with March 2004.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles increased by 2.8% in April 2004 compared with April 2003. Passenger vehicle sales decreased by 1.6% and other vehicle sales increased by 10.9% over the twelve month period.


NOTES

TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1The May 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the April 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.
2The May 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the April 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.

The percentage change of 4.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 9 years has been 4.0%.
Sensitivity Graph




SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS


New Motor Vehicle Sales, Total Vehicles, Long Term


New Motor Vehicle Sales, Total Vehicles, Short Term


Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change Passenger vehicles (%)
Change Other vehicles (%)
Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2003February
43,677
23,058
66,735
9.2
9.0
9.1
March
49,921
26,192
76,113
14.3
13.6
14.1
April
44,602
24,263
68,865
-10.7
-7.4
-9.5
May
49,646
28,616
78,262
11.3
17.9
13.6
June
57,086
34,972
92,058
15.0
22.2
17.6
July
51,450
28,071
79,521
-9.9
-19.7
-13.6
August
49,869
26,304
76,173
-3.1
-6.3
-4.2
September
51,749
26,042
77,791
3.8
-1.0
2.1
October
52,180
27,045
79,225
0.8
3.9
1.8
November
48,482
27,630
76,112
-7.1
2.2
-3.9
December
49,834
27,952
77,786
2.8
1.2
2.2
2004January
40,715
24,082
64,797
-18.3
-13.8
-16.7
February
47,876
28,001
75,877
17.6
16.3
17.1
March
53,728
32,318
86,046
12.2
15.4
13.4
April
44,079
27,226
71,305
-18.0
-15.8
-17.1

Seasonally Adjusted

2003February
46,778
24,890
71,668
-0.8
-2.9
-1.5
March
48,294
25,662
73,956
3.2
3.1
3.2
April
49,190
26,406
75,596
1.9
2.9
2.2
May
50,159
26,807
76,966
2.0
1.5
1.8
June
50,337
27,249
77,586
0.4
1.6
0.8
July
49,892
27,744
77,636
-0.9
1.8
0.1
August
51,155
27,202
78,357
2.5
-2.0
0.9
September
53,150
27,620
80,770
3.9
1.5
3.1
October
49,157
27,661
76,818
-7.5
0.1
-4.9
November
48,209
28,233
76,442
-1.9
2.1
-0.5
December
45,993
27,069
73,062
-4.6
-4.1
-4.4
2004January
49,401
29,812
79,213
7.4
10.1
8.4
February
50,125
29,523
79,648
1.5
-1.0
0.5
March
49,345
29,868
79,213
-1.6
1.2
-0.5
April
48,424
29,275
77,699
-1.9
-2.0
-1.9

Trend

2003February
47,535
25,416
72,951
1.4
1.4
1.4
March
48,232
25,850
74,082
1.5
1.7
1.6
April
48,938
26,297
75,235
1.5
1.7
1.6
May
49,706
26,721
76,427
1.6
1.6
1.6
June
50,517
27,131
77,648
1.6
1.5
1.6
July
51,099
27,447
78,546
1.2
1.2
1.2
August
51,224
27,639
78,863
0.2
0.7
0.4
September
50,879
27,760
78,639
-0.7
0.4
-0.3
October
50,256
27,929
78,185
-1.2
0.6
-0.6
November
49,561
28,194
77,755
-1.4
0.9
-0.5
December
49,012
28,537
77,549
-1.1
1.2
-0.3
2004January
48,732
28,907
77,639
-0.6
1.3
0.1
February
48,713
29,249
77,962
0.0
1.2
0.4
March
48,779
29,527
78,306
0.1
1.0
0.4
April
48,979
29,718
78,697
0.4
0.6
0.5

Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration

NSW (No.)
Vic. (No.)
Qld (No.)
SA (No.)
WA (No.)
Tas. (No.)
NT (No.)
ACT (No.)
Aust. (No.)

Original

2003February
21,965
18,152
12,956
4,754
6,164
1,069
582
1,093
66,735
March
25,541
20,408
14,843
5,147
6,917
1,218
769
1,270
76,113
April
23,588
18,368
13,386
4,507
5,948
1,177
728
1,163
68,865
May
26,259
21,053
14,967
5,273
7,127
1,454
789
1,340
78,262
June
31,168
24,132
18,084
6,089
8,662
1,549
866
1,508
92,058
July
26,983
21,248
15,716
5,298
6,973
1,407
635
1,261
79,521
August
25,391
19,799
15,248
5,263
7,048
1,589
555
1,280
76,173
September
25,738
21,200
15,293
5,222
6,894
1,639
593
1,212
77,791
October
25,533
21,337
15,521
5,430
7,487
2,008
607
1,302
79,225
November
25,099
20,254
15,058
5,214
6,925
1,717
630
1,215
76,112
December
25,113
21,071
15,265
5,404
7,161
1,860
593
1,319
77,786
2004January
21,216
16,857
13,403
4,334
6,249
1,193
498
1,047
64,797
February
24,955
19,727
15,901
5,059
7,113
1,297
686
1,139
75,877
March
28,118
22,137
18,611
5,561
8,086
1,343
912
1,278
86,046
April
23,033
19,083
14,831
4,670
6,529
1,229
812
1,118
71,305

Seasonally Adjusted

2003February
23,981
19,530
13,648
4,976
6,449
1,263
647
1,174
71,668
March
24,587
20,107
14,414
4,978
6,577
1,351
689
1,253
73,956
April
25,738
20,292
14,636
5,108
6,481
1,396
686
1,259
75,596
May
25,747
20,802
14,855
5,121
7,050
1,423
681
1,287
76,966
June
26,026
21,072
14,633
5,103
7,293
1,491
662
1,306
77,586
July
25,741
20,774
15,410
5,199
7,133
1,485
648
1,246
77,636
August
26,321
20,401
15,698
5,329
7,160
1,571
602
1,275
78,357
September
27,375
21,193
15,891
5,406
7,309
1,618
685
1,293
80,770
October
24,642
20,025
15,683
5,334
7,263
1,974
634
1,263
76,818
November
24,676
20,280
15,638
5,240
7,083
1,649
645
1,231
76,442
December
23,917
19,736
14,283
5,112
6,874
1,268
639
1,233
73,062
2004January
26,231
20,698
16,293
5,317
7,286
1,527
637
1,224
79,213
February
26,322
20,824
16,643
5,213
7,180
1,518
739
1,209
79,648
March
25,931
20,633
16,770
5,198
7,284
1,405
799
1,193
79,213
April
25,201
20,634
16,282
5,113
7,073
1,427
738
1,231
77,699

Trend

2003February
24,564
19,863
13,939
4,887
6,512
1,301
668
1,217
72,951
March
24,890
20,123
14,207
4,990
6,618
1,338
676
1,240
74,082
April
25,231
20,374
14,494
5,069
6,757
1,375
676
1,259
75,235
May
25,626
20,599
14,785
5,131
6,918
1,418
673
1,277
76,427
June
26,052
20,795
15,096
5,188
7,074
1,483
667
1,293
77,648
July
26,346
20,897
15,356
5,241
7,187
1,556
660
1,303
78,546
August
26,390
20,877
15,500
5,285
7,236
1,620
651
1,304
78,863
September
26,214
20,767
15,535
5,306
7,220
1,657
644
1,296
78,639
October
25,954
20,633
15,537
5,304
7,179
1,657
640
1,281
78,185
November
25,706
20,528
15,568
5,283
7,145
1,619
646
1,260
77,755
December
25,541
20,482
15,678
5,250
7,138
1,559
661
1,240
77,549
2004January
25,498
20,484
15,889
5,220
7,142
1,498
685
1,223
77,639
February
25,556
20,526
16,152
5,198
7,155
1,451
711
1,213
77,962
March
25,623
20,580
16,396
5,178
7,165
1,420
736
1,208
78,306
April
25,730
20,657
16,612
5,164
7,179
1,388
762
1,205
78,697


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