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8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Nov 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/01/2004   
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Effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on trend estimates


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below.


Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.


The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the November seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the October estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the November seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the October estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages were chosen because they represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

Graph - what if, Private sector houses approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 4% on Nov 2003
(2) falls by 4% on Nov 2003
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
July
10,234
2.2
10,239
2.2
10,264
2.3
August
10,356
1.2
10,359
1.2
10,371
1.0
September
10,407
0.5
10,401
0.4
10,368
-
October
10,420
0.1
10,423
0.2
10,314
-0.5
November
10,400
-0.2
10,445
0.2
10,239
-0.7
December
-
-
10,432
-0.1
10,121
-1.2

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
OTHER DWELLINGS
Graph - what if, Other dwellings

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 13% on Nov 2003
(2) falls by 13% on Nov 2003
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
July
4,671
2.1
4,663
2.1
4,703
2.4
August
4,812
3.0
4,809
3.1
4,830
2.7
September
4,947
2.8
4,957
3.1
4,904
1.5
October
5,050
2.1
5,059
2.1
4,884
-0.4
November
5,121
1.4
5,118
1.2
4,787
-2.0
December
-
-
5,145
0.5
4,646
-2.9

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

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