Australian Bureau of Statistics

Rate the ABS website
ABS Home > Statistics > By Release Date
8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Mar 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/05/2005   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.


The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the April seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the March estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 16% for private sector other dwelling units approved; and that the April seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the March estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 16% for private sector other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

Graph: Private sector houses approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 4% on Mar 2005
(2) falls by 4% on Mar 2005
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2004
November
8,601
-0.5
8,586
-0.6
8,607
-0.4
December
8,573
-0.3
8,565
-0.2
8,576
-0.4
2005
January
8,552
-0.2
8,569
-
8,541
-0.4
February
8,537
-0.2
8,590
0.2
8,499
-0.5
March
8,537
-
8,624
0.4
8,453
-0.5
April
-
-
8,656
0.4
8,398
-0.7

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)


PRIVATE SECTOR OTHER DWELLINGS

Graph: Private other dwelling units approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 16% on Mar 2005
(2) falls by 16% on Mar 2005
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2004
November
3,673
-0.8
3,656
-1.0
3,690
-0.6
December
3,723
1.4
3,716
1.7
3,733
1.2
2005
January
3,782
1.6
3,793
2.1
3,748
0.4
February
3,823
1.1
3,844
1.3
3,694
-1.4
March
3,859
0.9
3,869
0.7
3,587
-2.9
April
-
-
3,885
0.4
3,459
-3.6

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)


Bookmark and Share. Opens in a new window

Commonwealth of Australia 2014

Unless otherwise noted, content on this website is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Australia Licence together with any terms, conditions and exclusions as set out in the website Copyright notice. For permission to do anything beyond the scope of this licence and copyright terms contact us.