WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
TREND REVISIONS
Each time new seasonally adjusted estimates become available, trend estimates are revised. This revision is a combined result of the concurrent seasonal adjustment process and the application of surrogates of the Henderson average to the seasonally adjusted series (see paragraphs 29 to 37 of the Explanatory Notes).
The examples in the tables below show two illustrative scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of employment and the unemployment rate. The revisions in the scenarios are due to the use of surrogates of the Henderson average, as the impact of revision of seasonally adjusted estimates can not be estimated in advance.
1 The April seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the March estimate by:
0.24% for employment
2.10% for the unemployment rate
2 The April seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the March estimate by:
0.24% for employment
2.10% for the unemployment rate
The percentage changes of 0.24% and 2.10% represent the average absolute monthly percentage changes in employment and the unemployment rate respectively. Estimates in the graphs have been calculated using unrounded estimates, and may be different from, but more accurate than, rounded estimates depicted in the corresponding table.
Employment
 
   WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS: 
  Trend as published  (1) 11 620.6 i.e. rises by 0.24%  (2) 11 564.9 i.e. falls by 0.24% 
    

2012    
 December  11 555.5  11 555.2  11 556.2 
2013    
 January  11 571.8  11 572.5  11 570.0 
 February  11 587.3  11 589.4  11 581.2 
 March  11 599.9  11 604.5  11 589.0 


Unemployment Rate
 
   WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS: 
  Trend as published  (1) 5.7 i.e. rises by 2.10%  (2) 5.5 i.e. falls by 2.10% 
    

2012    
 December  5.4  5.4  5.4 
2013    
 January  5.4  5.4  5.4 
 February  5.5  5.5  5.5 
 March  5.5  5.5  5.5 


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