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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter $m % change $m % change $m % change 2005 June 102 477 1.1 102 477 1.1 102 477 1.1 September 103 390 0.9 103 384 0.9 103 520 1.0 December 104 075 0.7 104 082 0.7 104 035 0.5 2006 March 104 663 0.6 104 871 0.8 104 220 0.2

Company gross operating profits (Current prices)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter $m % change $m % change $m % change 2005 June 37 269 4.9 37 269 4.9 37 269 4.9 September 38 865 4.3 38 872 4.3 39 093 4.9 December 39 759 2.3 39 755 2.3 39 679 1.5 2006 March 40 061 0.8 40 391 1.6 39 328 -0.9