5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Jun 2007  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/09/2007   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.


1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.


2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.


Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

Graph: Graph - What If Inventories (chain volume measures)


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter
(2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2006
September
105 167
-0.6
105 167
-0.6
105 167
-0.6
December
105 368
0.2
105 256
0.1
105 394
0.2
2007
March
106 120
0.7
106 142
0.8
106 096
0.7
June
107 005
0.8
107 133
0.9
106 469
0.4


Company gross operating profits (Current prices)



What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2006
September
42 836
1.3
42 836
1.3
42 836
1.3
December
43 430
1.4
43 337
1.2
43 585
1.7
2007
March
(a)46 661
(a)na
(a)46 697
(a)na
(a)46 606
(a)na
June
47 317
1.4
47 780
2.3
46 518
-0.2
na not available
(a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007. See paragraph 23 of the Technical Notes for more information.