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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2010 March 145 897 0.5 145 897 0.5 145 897 0.5 June 145 945 0.0 145 874 0.0 146 047 0.1 September 145 719 -0.2 145 750 -0.1 145 692 -0.2 December 145 474 -0.2 146 079 0.2 145 250 -0.3

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 5.1% on this quarter (1) falls by 5.1% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2010 March 58 239 4.5 58 239 4.5 58 239 4.5 June (a)66 361 (a)na (a)66 375 (a)na (a)66 758 (a)na September 65 974 -0.6 65 997 -0.6 65 864 -1.3 December 64 839 -1.7 65 623 -0.6 63 780 -3.2 na not available (a) Break in series between this quarter and preceding quarter.