5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Mar 2007  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/05/2007   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 44 and 45 in the Explanatory Notes.


Buildings and Structures

Graph: What If Buildings


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 6.7%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 6.7%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2006
June
7 264
1.4
7 238
1.0
7 238
1.0
September
7 155
-1.5
7 124
-1.6
7 166
-1.0
December
7 127
-0.4
7 272
2.1
7 256
1.3
2007
March
np
np
np
np
np
np


Equipment, Plant and Machinery

Graph: What If Equipment


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.9%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.9%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2006
June
11 263
-1.2
11 446
-1.2
11 446
-1.2
September
11 052
-1.9
11 180
-2.3
11 247
-1.7
December
11 033
-0.2
11 233
0.5
11 208
-0.3
2007
March
np
np
np
np
np
np


Total Capital Expenditure

Graph: What If Total


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.4%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.4%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2006
June
18 527
-0.1
19 164
-0.1
19 164
-0.1
September
18 220
-1.7
18 745
-2.2
18 899
-1.4
December
18 165
-0.3
18 829
0.4
18 775
-0.7
2007
March
np
np
np
np
np
np