5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/08/2004   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 37 and 38 in the Explanatory Notes.


Buildings and Structures

Graph: What If Buildings

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 6.7%
on this quarter

(2) falls by 6.7%
on this quarter

$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2003
September
3,539
3.4
3,539
3.4
3,539
3.4
December
3,647
3.1
3,637
2.8
3,657
3.4
2004
March
3,729
2.2
3,730
2.6
3,723
1.8
June
3,775
1.2
3,839
2.9
3,743
0.5


Equipment, Plant and Machinery

Graph: What If Equipment

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.9%
on this quarter

(2) falls by 4.9%
on this quarter

$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2003
September
9,816
1.4
9,816
1.4
9,816
1.4
December
9,872
0.6
9,839
0.2
9,897
0.8
2004
March
9,915
0.4
9,926
0.9
9,905
0.1
June
9,955
0.4
10,152
2.3
9,869
-0.4


Total Capital Expenditure

Graph: What If Total

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.4%
on this quarter

(2) falls by 4.4%
on this quarter

$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2003
September
13,353
1.9
13,353
1.9
13,353
1.9
December
13,516
1.2
13,460
0.8
13,570
1.6
2004
March
13,642
0.9
13,659
1.5
13,621
0.4
June
13,743
0.7
14,066
3.0
13,535
-0.6