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5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Sep 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/11/2007   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:


1 The October 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the September 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.4%.


2 The October 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the September 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.4%.


The percentage change of 2.4% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 2.4%.


Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: Sensitivity Analysis

What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.4% on this month
(2) falls by 2.4% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

March 2007
64 948
1.0
64 947
1.0
64 947
1.0
April 2007
65 364
0.6
65 374
0.7
65 432
0.7
May 2007
65 428
0.1
65 444
0.1
65 546
0.2
June 2007
65 149
-0.4
65 155
-0.4
65 206
-0.5
July 2007
64 658
-0.8
64 659
-0.8
64 524
-1.0
August 2007
64 097
-0.9
64 144
-0.8
63 699
-1.3
September 2007
63 499
-0.9
63 706
-0.7
62 866
-1.3



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