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5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Jan 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 10/03/2006   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:


1 The February 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is higher than the January 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


2 The February 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is lower than the January 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 3.0%.


Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: Sensitivity Analysis

What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 3% on this month
(2) falls by 3% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

August 2005
56 246
1.3
56 219
1.2
56 287
1.3
September 2005
57 092
1.5
57 049
1.5
57 169
1.6
October 2005
57 867
1.4
57 849
1.4
57 909
1.3
November 2005
58 457
1.0
58 494
1.1
58 336
0.7
December 2005
58 889
0.7
58 999
0.9
58 478
0.2
January 2006
59 138
0.4
59 420
0.7
58 437
-0.1
February 2006
-
-
59 752
0.6
58 269
-0.3

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)


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