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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Sep 2009  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/11/2009   
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ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,851m in September 2009, an increase of $239m (15%) on a revised deficit in August 2009.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,849m in September 2009, an increase of $198m (12%) on a revised deficit in August 2009.

The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2009 was a deficit of $5,229m, an increase of $4,034m on the deficit of $1,195m for the three months to June 2009. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the September quarter 2009 deficit was $5,399m, an increase of $4,202m on the revised June quarter 2009 deficit of $1,197m.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August 2009 and September 2009 the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $107m (1%) to $19,390m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $882m (5%) to $20,214m. Non-monetary gold rose $538m (64%), non-rural goods rose $280m (2%) and rural goods fell $74m (3%). Services credits rose $137m (3%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: GOODS CREDITS


RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $71m (3%) to $2,052m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $74m (4%) to $2,042m.

The components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $50m (10%)
  • meat and meat preparations, down $44m (9%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $84m (4%) to $1,987m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $92m (1%) to $11,747m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $280m (2%) to $12,073m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • coal, coke & briquettes, up $242m (9%)
  • other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $82m (10%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the other mineral fuels component, down $79m (6%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $178m (1%) to $12,345m.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $24m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (4%) to $26m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $12m (1%) to $955m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold rose $538m (64%) to $1,374m.


Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: SERVICES CREDITS


In trend terms, services credits rose $44m (1%) to $4,612m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $137m (3%) to $4,699m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • travel services, up $131m (5%)
  • other services, up $17m (1%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:
  • transport services, down $5m (1%)
  • manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others, down $4m (17%)
  • maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $2m (22%).

Travel services credits for the current month are initially based on an estimate of the number of non-resident arrivals and departures.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $125m (4%) to $3,146m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August 2009 and September 2009 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $131m (1%) to $21,241m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,081m (5%) to $22,064m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $656m (10%), non-monetary gold rose $182m (33%), consumption goods rose $123m (2%) and capital goods rose $74m (2%). Services debits rose $47m (1%).

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes increased about 4.4% during the September quarter 2009 and the implicit price deflator fell 2.3%. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index fell about 3.4% and the implicit price deflator fell 2.5%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the September quarter 2009 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods
GOODS DEBITS
Graph: GOODS DEBITS


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $28m (1%) to $5,120m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $123m (2%) to $5,123m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $159m (15%)
  • consumption goods n.e.s., up $45m (3%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $648m (13%) to $5,570m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $8m to $3,700m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $74m (2%) to $4,009m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $113m (28%).

Partly offsetting this rise was the ADP equipment component, down $54m (9%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $442m (12%) to $4,181m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $46m (1%) to $7,120m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $656m (10%) to $7,350m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • fuels and lubricants, up $448m (25%)
  • parts for transport equipment, up $153m (25%)
  • other merchandise goods, up $52m (84%).

In original terms the rise in the fuels and lubricants component was driven by refined petroleum oils, up $477m (71%) with volumes up 72%. Crude petroleum was down $23m (2%) with volumes up 3% and prices down 5%. Contributing to the increase in refined petroleum oils were:
  • diesel, up $217m (69%)
  • gasoline, up $209m (156%).

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $991m (15%) to $7,560m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $38m (8%) to $489m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold debits rose $182m (33%) to $737m.


Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: SERVICES DEBITS


In trend terms, services debits rose $67m (1%) to $4,812m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $47m (1%) to $4,845m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • transport services, up $22m (2%)
  • travel services, up $16m (1%)
  • other services, up $8m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $14m (1%) to $2,552m.


Country breakdown for the financial year 2008-2009

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for financial year 2008-2009. The charts include both trade in goods (on a recorded trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade i.e. combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows separately total exports and total imports, for the ten countries in the first chart.

TOTAL VALUE OF TWO-WAY TRADE, By major countries - 2008-09, Percentage share
Graph: TOTAL VALUE OF TWO-WAY TRADE, By major countries—2008-09, Percentage share


EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES, By major countries - 2008-09
Graph: EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES, By major countries—2008-09


Combining trade in goods (on a recorded trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some transactions will be excluded (e.g. Merchanting credits and Goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others will be double counted. These transactions are unlikely to impact on the broad analysis.


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