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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Mar 2011 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 10/05/2011   
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ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,729m in March 2011, a decrease of $65m on the revised surplus in February 2011.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,740m in March 2011, a turnaround of $1,827m on the revised deficit in February 2011.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2011 was a surplus of $3,203m, a decrease of $3,587m on the surplus of $6,790m for the three months to December 2010. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the March quarter 2011 surplus was $3,486m, a decrease of $3,317m on the revised December quarter 2010 surplus of $6,803m.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February 2011 and March 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $124m (1%) to $24,663m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $2,106m (9%) to $24,991m. Non-rural goods rose $1,629m (11%) and non-monetary gold rose $503m (59%). Rural goods fell $60m (2%) and net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $26m. Services credits rose $33m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Graph This graph shows the Trend and Seasonally adjusted estimate for Goods Credits


RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $44m (2%) to $2,523m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $60m (2%) to $2,532m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $33m (5%)
  • meat and meat preparations, down $32m (5%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $116m (1%) to $16,644m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,629m (11%) to $16,746m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • metal ores and minerals, up $891m (15%) after falling $614m (9%) the previous month
  • coal, coke and briquettes, up $387m (14%)
  • other mineral fuels, up $222m (12%)
  • other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $129m (15%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities at the end of this section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $26m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $26m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $34m (3%) to $1,195m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $503m (59%) to $1,352m.


Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Graph This graph shows the Trend and Seasonally adjusted estimate for Services Credits


In trend terms, services credits fell $2m to $4,275m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $33m (1%) to $4,334m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $19m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $10m to $2,892m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February 2011 and March 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $189m (1%) to $22,935m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $278m (1%) to $23,251m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $623m (8%) and non-monetary gold rose $84m (25%). Capital goods fell $350m (8%) and consumption goods fell $66m (1%). Services debits fell $13m.

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes increased 0.8% and the implicit price deflator increased 0.9% during the March quarter 2011. In original terms, both the Chain Laspeyres price index and the implicit price deflator increased 1.3%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the March quarter 2011 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods
GOODS DEBITS
Graph: Graph This graph shows the Trend and Seasonally adjusted estimate for Goods Debits


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $24m to $5,203m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $66m (1%) to $5,178m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • textiles, clothing and footwear, down $58m (8%)
  • toys, books and leisure goods, down $27m (8%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the non-industrial transport component, up $24m (2%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $14m to $4,063m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $350m (8%) to $3,846m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $323m (51%)
  • machinery and industrial equipment, down $63m (5%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the ADP equipment component, up $61m (10%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $204m (2%) to $8,427m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $623m (8%) to $8,907m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • fuels and lubricants, up $615m (23%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis, the crude petroleum component rose $533m (34%) with volumes up 24% and prices up 8%
  • parts for transport equipment, up $81m (11%)
  • organic and inorganic chemicals, up $78m (22%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the processed industrial supplied n.e.s. component, down $84m (4%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $33m (9%) to $340m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $84m (25%) to $423m.


Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: Graph This graph shows the Trend and Seasonally adjusted estimate for Services Debits


In trend terms, services debits rose $27m (1%) to $4,901m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $13m to $4,897m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • travel, down $25m (1%)
  • transport, down $10m (1%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the maintenance and repair services n.i.e. component, up $18m.


Selected Commodities

Selected commodities, Price and volume analysis: Recorded Trade Basis

Oct 2010
Nov 2010
Dec 2010
Jan 2011
Feb 2011
Mar 2011
%
%
%
%
%
%

Iron ore

Lump
Volumes
10
-11
14
-15
-23
np
Price
-11
1
3
7
3
np
Fines
Volumes
7
-6
10
-16
-17
np
Price
-11
1
4
7
4
np

Coal

Hard coking
Volumes
-4
10
-6
-39
-7
39
Price
-6
-6
-
1
5
-
Semi-soft
Volumes
8
-5
3
-33
1
40
Price
-
-6
-2
-2
9
4
Bituminous (Thermal)
Volumes
-1
-19
15
-10
-20
3
Price
-6
-
2
5
2
-

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated


On a recorded trade basis, between February and March 2011, large value increases were recorded for the following selected commodities:
  • hard coking coal rose $415m (39%) with exports to Republic of Korea up $123m and India up $99m (27%), both driven by an increase in volumes
  • semi-soft coal rose $226m (45%) with exports to Republic of Korea up $126m and Japan up $50m (21%), both driven by an increase in volumes.

See the Impact of the Australian floods on March 2011 exports on the Impact of natural disasters section for details.

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