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4500.0 - Crime and Justice News, Oct 2001  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/10/2001   
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Analysis Projects

Small Area Estimates of Crime

This project is an attempt to derive estimates of crime victimisation at a geographic area smaller than the 1998 National Crime and Safety Survey allows, using small area estimation techniques. A model for use in the project was presented in August to an Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) conference in Townsville entitled 'The Character, Impact and Prevention of Crime in Regional Australia'. The authors received useful feedback from conference participants and are currently incorporating some new ideas into the research. The expected completion date for this work is April 2002.

Propensity to Report Crime

For this project, the ABS is working with the AIC on a model to identify the victim and offence characteristics that are associated with reporting offences to the Police. Preliminary results show that offence seriousness (for example, the use of a weapon in the offence) increases the likelihood that the offence will be reported. The write-up of this project will be circulated for peer group review towards the end of this year, with an expected completion date of December 2001.

Repeat and Multiple Victimisation

ABS is also collaborating with the AIC on a project studying repeat and multiple victimisation. The AIC is currently modelling the relationships in the data and testing the model against the 1993 National Crime and Safety Survey. Once testing is complete, the model will be passed on to the ABS' Analysis Branch to apply to the 1998 Survey. A paper is expected to be circulated by the end of the year.

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