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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Sep 2008 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/11/2008   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2008 (456,400 movements) declined by 0.8% compared with August 2008 (460,000 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.8% lower than in September 2007.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2008. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for September 2008 and September 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (18.5%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (19.3%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - September 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Aug 08 to Sep 08
Sep 07 to Sep 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
88.6
87.8
104.7
-1.1
-6.1
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
55.4
57.3
39.5
-0.4
-2.1
Japan
38.0
36.8
35.3
-0.5
-19.3
United States of America
37.3
35.8
26.7
-0.5
-3.2
China
25.6
26.1
19.3
-5.2
-16.4
Singapore
23.1
22.9
18.2
0.2
6.8
Korea
19.6
18.2
13.4
-0.6
-4.5
Germany
12.7
12.8
12.6
-0.3
0.8
Malaysia
12.8
11.1
11.0
-3.6
-1.6
Indonesia
8.8
9.6
10.5
3.4
18.5

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The October seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than September.
      2 The October seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than September.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in September 2008, short-term resident departures (488,300 movements) changed little when compared with August 2008 (487,800 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 5.0% higher than in September 2007.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during September 2008. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for September 2008 and September 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (34.3%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by China (8.3%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - September 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Aug 08 to Sep 08
Sep 07 to Sep 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
75.9
74.1
77.9
0.1
-1.3
United States of America
43.7
44.4
55.8
2.0
7.1
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
35.1
35.4
46.5
-0.1
-3.7
Indonesia
31.4
31.7
39.2
0.9
34.3
Thailand
33.8
34.5
38.0
-2.1
6.5
China
22.1
22.2
30.1
-
-8.3
Fiji
19.8
19.1
23.4
0.3
12.7
Italy
10.6
10.9
23.1
1.1
10.5
Singapore
18.5
19.4
19.2
1.2
-3.6
Malaysia
16.0
15.1
16.7
-0.6
4.9

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The October seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than September.
      2 The October seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than September.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 13,920 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during September 2008, an increase of 22.3% compared with September 2007 (11,390 movements). People born in New Zealand and the UK, CIs and IOM accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (each 16%), followed by people born in India (11%) and China (10%).

There were 5,750 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during September 2008, an increase of 4.3% compared with September 2007 (5,520 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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