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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, May 2010 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/07/2010   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during May 2010 (479,200 movements) decreased 0.2% when compared with April 2010 (480,200 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.9% higher than in May 2009.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during May 2010. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for May 2010 and May 2009 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (26.1%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by the Malaysia (11.9%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - May 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 10 to May 10
May 09 to May 10
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
92.7
90.6
86.1
-0.7
2.3
United States of America
39.4
40.3
32.9
-0.6
1.5
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
53.0
54.9
30.1
-0.2
-6.8
China
36.3
38.0
26.2
1.7
26.1
Singapore
24.0
23.3
23.5
-1.0
0.9
Japan
32.4
31.4
23.2
0.6
15.0
Malaysia
16.9
15.8
17.9
-1.1
-11.9
Korea(c)
18.8
18.7
15.8
1.7
23.9
India
10.9
10.4
14.0
-0.9
5.7
Hong Kong
12.7
12.5
9.2
-0.7
-4.0

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The June 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than May 2010.
      2 The June 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than May 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during May 2010 (573,100 movements) increased 0.6% when compared with April 2010 (569,900 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 11.7% higher than in May 2009.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during May 2010. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for May 2009 and May 2010 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (40.3%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by the UK, CIs & IOM (1.5%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - May 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 10 to May 10
May 09 to May 10
Destination countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
86.1
83.5
59.1
-0.5
0.1
United States of America
54.5
54.0
56.7
1.8
15.5
Indonesia
61.1
61.2
55.6
1.3
40.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
35.7
37.3
53.9
0.5
-1.5
Thailand
37.4
33.5
26.5
-2.3
18.7
China
26.6
27.8
26.4
-
20.3
Fiji(c)
24.9
25.1
22.0
2.1
30.5
Singapore
21.6
22.5
21.7
1.0
21.5
Malaysia
20.6
21.1
17.4
1.0
7.5
Italy
10.3
9.7
16.6
-0.5
14.7

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Break in trend series for Fiji from July 2009 - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 25.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The June 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than May 2010.
      2 The June 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than May 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 10,540 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during May 2010, a decrease of 7.9% compared with May 2009 (11,440 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (15.9%), followed by people born in India (12.9%), China (10.2%) and the UK, CIs & IOM (8.7%).

There were 6,690 Australian residents who departed permanently from Australia during May 2010, an increase of 8.8% compared with May 2009 (6,150 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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