3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Mar 2008  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/05/2008   
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MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during March 2008 (468,000 movements) changed little compared with February 2008 (467,900 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.3% lower than in March 2007.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during March 2008. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for March 2008 and March 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (14.7%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Korea (17.5%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - March 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Feb 08 to Mar 08
Mar 07 to Mar 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

United Kingdom
56.7
57.2
85.6
0.4
-5.6
New Zealand
92.8
90.2
83.7
-0.5
-3.3
Japan
41.2
42.0
50.7
-1.5
-15.6
United States of America
38.3
37.3
42.0
-0.8
-0.1
China
32.1
33.2
29.7
1.2
14.7
Singapore
23.1
24.1
25.0
2.2
3.4
Korea
18.3
17.8
17.0
-1.3
-17.5
Germany
13.0
13.0
16.1
0.5
2.5
Hong Kong
11.9
11.8
15.5
-0.4
-5.0
Malaysia
14.8
14.5
14.2
1.6
10.1

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than March.
      2 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than March.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in March 2008, short-term resident departures (479,300 movements) increased by 0.4% compared with February 2008 (477,600 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 9.7% higher than in March 2007.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during March 2008. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for March 2008 and March 2007 were compared percentage increases were recorded by all top ten countries. The highest percentage increases were recorded by Indonesia (45.1%) and Fiji (37.4%), both popular holiday destinations for Australian residents.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - March 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Feb 08 to Mar 08
Mar 07 to Mar 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
77.4
78.0
87.5
0.5
4.9
United States of America
41.0
39.1
36.6
-0.6
7.0
Thailand
33.5
33.8
32.3
1.9
9.2
Indonesia
32.3
30.7
27.1
2.7
45.1
United Kingdom
35.7
37.3
27.0
-0.2
4.6
China
24.3
24.6
26.4
0.1
5.4
Hong Kong
17.0
17.1
21.5
-1.3
2.5
Fiji
20.2
20.4
18.8
1.4
37.4
Singapore
18.5
18.4
18.5
-0.5
5.1
Malaysia
15.2
14.8
15.4
-1.6
1.0

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than March.
      2 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than March.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 14,660 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during March 2008, an increase of 13.3% compared with March 2007 (12,940 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (17%), followed by people born in the United Kingdom (14%), India (11%) and China (10%).

There were 6,850 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during March 2008, an increase of 9.7% compared with March 2007 (6,250 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.