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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jul 2010 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/09/2010   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during July 2010 (477,700 movements) remained stable when compared with June 2010 (477,700 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 4.1% higher than in July 2009.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during July 2010. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for July 2010 and July 2009 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (39.4%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by the UK, CI & IOM (8.3%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - July 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jun 10 to Jul 10
Jul 09 to Jul 10
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
94.1
96.2
114.5
0.2
4.0
China
38.2
39.1
47.6
1.6
39.4
United States of America
37.3
36.7
42.5
-0.9
-7.8
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
52.0
51.0
35.7
-0.6
-8.3
Japan
33.4
34.8
35.6
0.9
24.6
Singapore
24.8
25.7
22.5
0.5
5.9
Korea(c)
17.3
16.4
18.4
-1.2
17.9
Malaysia
18.1
19.5
17.1
1.5
-1.1
Hong Kong
13.2
14.0
16.8
0.9
4.2
Germany
13.2
13.4
14.0
0.6
-1.3

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The August 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than July 2010.
      2 The August 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than July 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during July 2010 (601,200 movements) increased 1.2% when compared with June 2010 (594,300 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 14.5% higher than in July 2009.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during July 2010. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for July 2009 and July 2010 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (35.2%), followed by China (27.4%) and the United States of America (23.9%). None of the top ten destination countries recorded a percentage decrease over the year ended July 2010.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - July 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jun 10 to Jul 10
Jul 09 to Jul 10
Destination countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
91.9
95.3
90.4
1.5
5.8
Indonesia
61.9
61.6
70.9
0.7
35.2
United States of America
59.6
59.3
53.9
1.8
23.9
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
40.2
39.6
48.7
2.5
11.1
Thailand
35.1
37.0
38.5
-2.0
9.6
Fiji(c)
27.1
26.7
29.5
1.8
17.2
Singapore
22.1
22.2
24.5
0.8
21.9
China
28.9
29.7
23.4
2.2
27.4
Malaysia
20.1
19.0
21.1
-0.7
3.9
Vietnam
15.8
15.2
12.7
-0.1
18.9

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Break in trend series for Fiji from July 2009 - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 25.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The August 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than July 2010.
      2 The August 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than July 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia 2008-09 (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 9,710 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during July 2010, a decrease of 13.1% compared with July 2009 (11,170 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (15.6%), followed by people born in China (11.4%), India (9.9%) and the UK, CIs & IOM (8.5%).

There were 7,160 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during July 2010, an increase of 5.8% compared with July 2009 (6,770 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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