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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jan 2011 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/03/2011   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2011 (504,500 movements) decreased little when compared with December 2010 (504,700 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 4.7% higher than in January 2010.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2011. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for January 2011 and January 2010 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (33.3%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (10.3%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - January 2011

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 10 to Jan 11
Jan 10 to Jan 11
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
100.3
101.5
74.9
0.4
6.2
China
44.4
47.7
60.6
2.2
33.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
54.9
53.0
59.9
0.6
1.3
United States of America
40.3
39.7
37.2
0.2
-1.7
Japan
28.4
27.3
23.3
-5.0
-10.3
Korea(c)
18.6
17.8
21.6
-0.6
11.6
Singapore
26.9
26.7
17.4
-0.6
8.5
Germany
13.6
13.6
14.1
0.4
-0.9
Hong Kong
14.2
14.4
12.7
-1.2
8.0
Malaysia
21.2
21.5
12.5
-1.0
19.7

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The February 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than January 2011.
      2 The February 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than January 2011.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during January 2011 (609,600 movements) increased 0.5% when compared with December 2010 (606,600 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 9.4% higher than in January 2010.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during January 2011. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for January 2010 and January 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (20.7%).

Short-term Resident Departures(a), Australia - January 2011

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 10 to Jan 11
Jan 10 to Jan 11
Destination countries
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
89.3
91.0
90.4
0.7
2.4
Indonesia
68.0
68.9
65.7
1.8
20.7
United States of America
58.9
59.0
50.1
-
17.9
Thailand
39.7
40.6
39.2
2.1
3.3
Malaysia
21.7
24.0
26.5
1.0
7.0
China
27.8
29.0
26.3
-1.4
6.3
Fiji
26.2
25.7
24.4
-0.4
14.3
Japan
14.6
14.6
22.3
1.3
7.1
Singapore
22.8
23.3
22.0
1.3
9.1
Vietnam
17.0
17.1
22.0
2.4
16.8

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The Febuary 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than January 2011.
      2 The Febuary 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than January 2011.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia 2008-09 (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 10,510 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during January 2011, a decrease of 8.4% compared with January 2010 (11,470 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (30.0%), followed by people born in China (10.5%), the UK, CIs & IOM (8.2%) and India (7.7%).

There were 12,090 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during January 2011, an increase of 3.3% compared with January 2010 (11,700 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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