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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jan 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/03/2009   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2009 (451,100 movements) recorded little change when compared with December 2008 (451,400 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.8% lower than in January 2008.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2009. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for January 2009 and January 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Hong Kong (2.8%) while the highest percentage decreases were recorded by Korea (32.3%) and Japan (28.9%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - January 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 08 to Jan 09
Jan 08 to Jan 09
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
95.9
96.9
73.2
1.0
2.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
52.7
51.9
59.2
-0.6
-7.1
China
30.7
33.2
54.5
4.3
-2.6
United States of America
37.0
35.7
33.6
-0.4
-4.7
Japan
30.4
27.9
26.1
-4.7
-28.9
Korea
13.1
13.0
18.3
-6.4
-32.3
Singapore
21.5
21.0
17.7
-1.5
-4.7
Hong Kong
12.2
11.8
15.2
1.1
2.8
Germany
13.1
12.6
13.1
0.6
1.5
Canada
9.8
9.7
12.4
-1.6
-1.7

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The February seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than January.
      2 The February seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than January.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in January 2009, short-term resident departures (478,200 movements) decreased 0.6% compared with December 2008 (480,900 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 0.3% higher than in January 2008.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during January 2009. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for January 2009 and January 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (22.2%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by the United States of America (11.5%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - January 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 08 to Jan 09
Jan 08 to Jan 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
79.6
78.7
79.0
1.0
4.8
Indonesia
36.3
38.0
35.1
2.8
22.2
United States of America
36.9
34.8
30.8
-3.5
-11.5
Thailand
30.2
29.3
26.4
-1.6
-8.9
China
23.8
24.2
21.0
0.9
-1.8
Malaysia
17.2
17.8
19.6
2.0
10.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
33.7
33.6
18.1
-0.4
-5.9
Japan
13.0
12.9
17.7
2.6
2.0
Viet Nam
13.3
12.7
16.6
-2.7
1.4
Singapore
18.1
17.9
16.2
0.1
-2.7

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The February seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than January.
      2 The February seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than January.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 14,210 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during January 2009, an increase of 9.6% compared with January 2008 (12,960 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (24.5%), followed by people born in UK, CIs & IOM (12.8%), China (9.6%) and India (8.8%).

There were 11,040 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during January 2009, an increase of 5.2% compared with January 2008 (10,500 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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