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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Feb 2010 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/04/2010   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during February 2010 (485,800 movements) increased little when compared with January 2010 (485,300 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 4.0% higher than in February 2009.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during February 2010. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for February 2010 and February 2009 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by the United States of America (9.9%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by Hong Kong (6.0%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - February 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jan 10 to Feb 10
Feb 09 to Feb 10
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

UK, CIs & IOM(b)
54.7
54.5
73.9
-0.6
-1.0
China
33.8
35.9
73.2
1.7
1.0
New Zealand
95.8
97.6
70.2
0.2
1.7
United States of America
41.4
40.1
45.9
-1.4
9.9
Japan
30.5
31.6
37.2
-0.4
-4.8
Singapore
24.7
24.9
26.2
0.2
3.6
Malaysia
18.1
18.3
24.4
0.4
2.8
Hong Kong
12.9
12.7
18.4
-1.1
-6.0
Germany
13.9
13.4
17.3
-0.2
6.2
Korea
15.9
15.8
16.7
1.5
6.3

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The March 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than February 2010.
      2 The March 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than February 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during February 2010 (554,400 movements) increased 0.2% when compared with January 2010 (553,600 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 17.7% higher than in February 2009. Note that trend breaks were introduced from April 2009.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during February 2010. Due to the breaks in series, care should be excercised when comparing year on year percentage change in the following table (see footnote (a) in the table for more information).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - February 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jan 10 to Feb 10
Feb 09 to Feb 10
Destination countries(a)(b)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
86.6
84.1
87.3
-0.6
8.8
Indonesia
58.2
59.6
40.9
2.6
56.3
United States of America
49.0
51.2
35.3
0.8
33.3
Thailand
39.9
38.5
30.4
2.4
32.4
China
26.7
29.0
19.9
2.4
22.3
Malaysia
20.2
21.3
18.5
-0.1
21.6
Singapore
21.1
21.2
17.8
-0.1
17.9
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
34.4
33.2
14.9
-2.0
1.3
Japan
13.7
13.4
14.6
-0.6
13.8
Fiji
22.1
22.1
14.0
-0.4
16.4

(a) Break in trend series from April 2009 for all listed countries; additional break for Fiji from July 2009 - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 25.
(b) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(c) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The March 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than February 2010.
      2 The March 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than February 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES(a), Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES(a), Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 12,320 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during February 2010, a decrease of 11.8% compared with February 2009 (13,960 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (14.7%), followed by people born in China (13.4%), India (10.5%) and the UK, CIs & IOM (9.7%).

There were 6,680 Australian residents who departed permanently from Australia during February 2010, an increase of 18.9% compared with February 2009 (5,620 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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