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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Feb 2008  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 09/04/2008   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during February 2008 (469,000 movements) changed little compared with January 2008 (469,300 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.2% lower than in February 2007.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: Short Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during February 2008. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for February 2008 and February 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (11.4%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (16.6%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - February 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jan 08 to Feb 08
Feb 07 to Feb 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

United Kingdom
56.0
57.5
79.5
-
-8.5
New Zealand
95.1
97.2
72.4
0.2
0.6
China
31.1
29.5
56.1
-0.2
11.4
United States of America
39.5
40.4
49.0
0.2
3.3
Japan
41.8
41.6
46.7
-2.3
-16.6
Singapore
21.7
21.7
23.1
-0.5
-3.0
Korea
19.2
19.6
20.5
-0.5
-14.4
Malaysia
14.5
14.1
18.5
1.4
7.9
Hong Kong
12.0
11.4
17.1
-1.3
-4.8
Germany
12.9
12.7
17.0
0.7
2.2

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The March seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than February.
      2 The March seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than February.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES
Graph: What If...?  Revisions to STVA Trend Estimates


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in February 2008, short-term resident departures (476,100 movements) changed little compared with January 2008 (475,400 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 10.5% higher than in February 2007.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: Short-term resident departures, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during February 2008. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for February 2008 and February 2007 were compared percentage increases were recorded by all top ten countries. The highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (44.4%). This followed two breaks in the time series after the Bali bombing in October 2005 and indicates that Australian residents are returning to Indonesia for holidays (see the Feature Article: Short-term Movements, Indonesia, page 7).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - February 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jan 08 to Feb 08
Feb 07 to Feb 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
76.7
77.5
82.2
0.2
4.4
United States of America
42.6
43.8
29.9
0.5
12.5
Thailand
32.5
33.0
26.7
1.4
9.4
Indonesia
32.1
31.6
20.6
4.9
44.4
China
24.3
24.0
16.6
0.1
8.7
Singapore
18.6
19.3
16.3
-0.5
8.7
United Kingdom
35.0
34.1
16.2
-1.5
3.1
Hong Kong
17.4
17.4
15.4
-0.8
6.8
Japan
13.9
13.9
14.4
2.3
31.7
Malaysia
15.8
15.4
13.9
-0.3
6.2

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The March seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than February.
      2 The March seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than February.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES
Graph: What if...?  Revisions to STRD trend estimates


The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 13,420 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during February 2008, an increase of 21.5% compared with February 2007 (11,040 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (20%), followed by people born in the United Kingdom (14%), India (10%) and China (9%).

There were 5,730 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during February 2008, an increase of 6.4% compared with February 2007 (5,390 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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