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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Dec 2008 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/02/2009   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during December 2008 (454,100 movements) recorded a small increase compared with November 2008 (453,200 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.1% lower than in December 2007.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during December 2008. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for December 2008 and December 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Malaysia (7.1%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Korea (26.0%) followed by Japan (22.0%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - December 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov 08 to Dec 08
Dec 07 to Dec 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
93.9
93.8
101.0
1.2
0.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
53.9
54.6
100.8
-0.2
-4.4
United States of America
38.0
38.7
44.3
0.5
-3.0
Japan
34.1
34.5
37.2
-2.0
-22.0
Singapore
22.2
23.0
35.5
-0.5
0.1
China
27.4
29.7
31.7
1.7
-12.8
Malaysia
15.0
15.2
21.4
3.0
7.1
Germany
13.2
14.0
18.9
1.3
4.1
Hong Kong
12.2
12.7
16.5
2.0
2.6
Korea
14.4
15.0
16.0
-6.0
-26.0

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The January seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than December.
      2 The January seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than December.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in December 2008, short-term resident departures (487,000 movements) recorded a small decrease compared with November 2008 (486,100 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 2.9% higher than in December 2007.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during December 2008. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for December 2008 and December 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (19.7%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by UK,CIs & IOM (5.7%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - December 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov 08 to Dec 08
Dec 07 to Dec 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
78.8
81.6
125.8
1.2
3.5
United States of America
40.1
39.5
49.6
-1.4
-4.1
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
34.1
35.2
41.3
-0.2
-5.7
Indonesia
34.0
38.0
40.2
1.9
19.7
Thailand
31.7
31.6
35.2
-0.2
-1.4
China
23.4
24.0
26.8
1.6
-3.5
Viet Nam
14.3
13.9
23.9
-0.4
9.2
Fiji
20.0
20.2
23.8
0.4
4.8
Singapore
18.3
19.0
23.8
0.6
-2.5
Malaysia
16.4
16.6
23.1
0.9
3.8

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The January seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than December.
      2 The January seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than December.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 13,200 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during December 2008, an increase of 9.7% compared with December 2007 (12,040 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (18%), followed by people born in UK, CIs & IOM (13%), India (10%) and China (9%).

There were 7,460 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during December 2008, an increase of 7.5% compared with December 2007 (6,940 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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