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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Apr 2010 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/06/2010   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during April 2010 (481,400 movements) decreased 0.2% when compared with March 2010 (482,200 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.4% higher than in April 2009.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during April 2010. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for April 2010 and April 2009 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Korea (21.4%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by the UK, CIs & IOM (8.4%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - April 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Mar 10 to Apr 10
Apr 09 to Apr 10
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
94.8
94.6
98.5
-0.2
3.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
52.2
50.9
43.1
-1.2
-8.4
China
35.2
31.1
32.5
0.9
13.8
United States of America
39.3
39.0
31.9
-1.5
2.4
Japan
32.5
31.8
25.8
2.3
9.7
Singapore
25.0
24.6
21.2
0.6
4.4
Korea(c)
18.5
18.0
16.6
3.0
21.4
Malaysia
17.9
17.7
16.3
-0.1
-5.2
Hong Kong
12.9
12.4
13.6
-0.3
-4.6
India
11.4
11.1
11.5
0.7
10.5

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The May 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than April 2010.
      2 The May 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than April 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during April 2010 (568,500 movements) increased 0.4% when compared with March 2010 (566,000 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 10.9% higher than in April 2009.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during April 2010. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for April 2009 and April 2010 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (39.7%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by the UK, CIs & IOM (5.3%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - April 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Mar 10 to Apr 10
Apr 09 to Apr 10
Destination countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
88.2
89.3
85.8
0.2
2.6
United States of America
53.4
53.6
55.1
2.2
14.5
Indonesia
60.0
59.1
52.4
1.3
39.7
Thailand
40.5
38.4
39.7
0.4
27.7
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
34.5
34.5
31.2
-0.6
-5.3
China
26.1
23.3
27.1
-0.8
16.8
Fiji(c)
24.0
24.5
23.2
1.6
23.3
Singapore
20.8
21.1
21.7
-0.1
13.9
Malaysia
20.0
20.3
18.6
-0.4
4.4
Hong Kong
16.8
16.8
17.5
-1.1
1.1

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Break in trend series for Fiji from July 2009 - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 25.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The May 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than April 2010.
      2 The May 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than April 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 10,780 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during April 2010, a decrease of 10.5% compared with April 2009 (12,050 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (15.1%), followed by people born in India (12.6%), the UK, CIs & IOM (11.2%) and China (9.6%).

There were 7,670 Australian residents who departed permanently from Australia during April 2010, an increase of 3.5% compared with April 2009 (7,410 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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