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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Apr 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/06/2009   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during April 2009 (477,300 movements) rose 0.8% when compared with March 2009 (473,600 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.7% higher than in April 2008.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during April 2009. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for April 2009 and April 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increases were recorded by Taiwan (48.7%) and Malaysia (30.4%) while the highest percentage decreases were recorded by Korea (16.2%) and Japan (15.1%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - April 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Mar 09 to Apr 09
Apr 08 to Apr 09
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
94.8
93.3
98.8
-0.5
1.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
55.6
55.7
54.0
0.7
-3.2
United States of America
36.7
37.0
33.2
-0.4
-3.3
China
36.1
32.2
30.8
1.9
11.3
Japan
33.4
34.3
27.7
1.1
-15.1
Singapore
24.9
25.4
23.1
1.9
10.5
Malaysia
18.5
19.3
19.0
2.8
30.4
Hong Kong
14.5
14.3
18.6
2.3
19.4
Korea
16.0
16.3
14.4
2.9
-16.2
Taiwan
9.3
10.8
11.1
4.0
48.7

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than April.
      2 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than April.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in April 2009, short-term resident departures (483,000 movements) increased 0.5% compared with March 2009 (480,700 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently marginally higher than in April 2008.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during April 2009. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for April 2009 and April 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (29.1%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Thailand (14.9%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - April 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Mar 09 to Apr 09
Apr 08 to Apr 09
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
80.9
81.6
86.1
0.2
7.5
United States of America
36.3
48.2
49.1
-0.2
-11.0
Indonesia
39.3
38.8
36.6
1.6
29.1
Thailand
30.9
31.3
34.6
0.3
-14.9
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
34.8
35.4
33.2
0.9
-1.2
China
22.3
21.9
26.2
-1.2
-4.5
Malaysia
18.3
21.3
20.4
3.3
17.6
Singapore
18.2
19.0
19.4
0.3
0.4
Fiji
20.0
20.1
18.8
0.1
2.1
Hong Kong
16.0
17.2
18.7
-1.3
-12.3

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than April.
      2 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than April.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 12,050 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during April 2009, a decrease of 3.6% compared with April 2008 (12,500 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (14.2%), followed by people born in the UK, CIs & IOM (13.9%), India (11.9%), and China (9.9%).

There were 7,410 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during April 2009, an increase of 12.5% compared with April 2008 (6,590 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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