3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2002 to 2101  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/09/2003   
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Age-specific death rates

Age-specific death rates are the number of deaths (occurred or registered) during the calendar year at a specified age per 1,000 of the estimated resident population of the same age at mid-point of the year (30 June). Pro rata adjustment is made in respect of deaths for which the age of the deceased is not given.

Age-specific fertility rates

Age-specific fertility rates are the number of live births (occurred or registered) during the calendar year, according to the age of the mother, per 1,000 of the female estimated resident population of the same age at 30 June. For calculating these rates, births to mothers under 15 years are included in the 15-19 years age group, and births to mothers aged 50 years and over are included in the 45-49 years age group.

Average annual growth rate

The average annual population growth rate, r, is calculated as a percentage using the formula:


Image: Average annual growth rate formula

where P0 is the population at the start of the period, Pn is the population at the end of the period and n is the length of the period between Pn and P0 in years.

Balance of state/territory

The aggregation of all Statistical Divisions (SD) within a state or territory other than its Capital City SD. (See Major Statistical Region in Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC) (cat. no. 1216.0).)

Baby boom

Baby boom refers to the generation born between the end of World War II and the mid-1960s. Baby boomers are usually taken to be those born in the years 1946 to 1965 inclusive.

Birth

The delivery of a child, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, who, after being born, breathes or shows any evidence of life such as a heartbeat.

Capital city

Refers to the Capital City Statistical Divisions of states and territories as defined in Statistical Geography: Volume 1. Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC) (cat. no. 1216.0).

Category jumping

Category jumping is the term used to describe changes between intended and actual duration of stay of travellers to/from Australia, such that their classification as short-term or as long-term/permanent movers is different at arrival/departure from that after 12 months. Category jumping consists of two components, an Australian resident component and an overseas visitor component. The Australian resident component of category jumping for a reference quarter is estimated by comparing the number of residents departing short-term in that quarter with all residents who left in that quarter and return in the following 12 months, to obtain the net number of Australian residents who jump category. Similarly, the number of overseas visitors arriving short-term in a quarter is compared with all overseas visitors who arrived in that quarter and depart in the following 12 months, to obtain the net number of overseas visitors who jump category. Estimates of category jumping are derived by subtracting the Australian resident component from the overseas visitor component.

Category of movement

Overseas arrivals and departures are classified according to length of stay (in Australia or overseas), recorded in months and days by travellers on passenger cards. There are three main categories of movement:

  • permanent movements
  • long-term movements (one year or more)
  • short-term movements (less than one year).

A significant number of travellers (i.e. overseas visitors to Australia on arrival and Australian residents going abroad) state exactly 12 months or one year as their intended period of stay. Many of them stay for less than that period and on their departure from, or return to, Australia are therefore classified as short-term.

Accordingly, in an attempt to maintain consistency between arrivals and departures, movements of travellers who report their actual or intended period of stay as being one year exactly are randomly allocated to long-term or short-term in proportion to the number of movements of travellers who report their actual length of stay as up to one month more, or one month less, than one year.

Estimated resident population

The official measure of the population of Australia is based on the concept of residence. It refers to all people, regardless of nationality or citizenship, who usually live in Australia, with the exception of foreign diplomatic personnel and their families. It includes usual residents who are overseas for less than 12 months. It excludes overseas visitors who are in Australia for less than 12 months.

Infant mortality rate

The number of deaths of children under one year of age in a calendar year per 1,000 live births in the same calendar year.

Intercensal discrepancy

Intercensal discrepancy is the difference between two estimates at 30 June of a census year population, the first based on the latest census and the second arrived at by updating the 30 June estimate of the previous census year with intercensal components of population change which take account of information available from the latest census. It is caused by errors in the start and/or finish population estimates and/or in estimates of births, deaths or migration in the intervening period which cannot be attributed to a particular source.

Internal migration

The difference between the number of persons who have changed their place of usual residence by moving into a defined geographical area and the number who have changed their place of usual residence by moving out of that defined geographical area during a specified time period. This difference may be either positive or negative.

Life expectancy

Life expectancy refers to the average number of additional years a person of a given age and sex might expect to live if the age-specific death rates of the given period continued throughout his or her lifetime.

Long-term arrivals

Long-term arrivals comprise:
  • overseas visitors who intend to stay in Australia for 12 months or more (but not permanently)
  • Australian residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more overseas.

Long-term departures

Long-term departures comprise:
  • Australian residents who intend to stay abroad for 12 months or more (but not permanently)
  • overseas visitors departing who stayed 12 months or more in Australia.

Median value

For any distribution the median value (age, duration, interval) is that value which divides the relevant population into two equal parts, half falling below the value, and half exceeding it. Where the value for a particular record has not been stated, that record is excluded from the calculation.

Natural increase

The excess of births over deaths.

Net interstate migration

The difference between the number of persons who have changed their place of usual residence by moving into a given state or territory and the number who have changed their place of usual residence by moving out of that state or territory during a specified time period. This difference can be either positive or negative.

Net overseas migration

Net overseas migration is net permanent and long-term overseas migration plus an adjustment for the effect of category jumping.

Net permanent and long-term

The difference between the number of permanent (settler) and long-term movement arrivals and the number of permanent and long-term departures. Short-term movements are excluded.

Permanent arrivals (settlers)

Permanent arrivals (settlers) comprise:
  • travellers who hold migrant visas (regardless of stated intended period of stay)
  • New Zealand citizens who indicate an intention to settle
  • those who are otherwise eligible to settle (e.g. overseas-born children of Australian citizens).

This definition of settlers is used by the Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA). Prior to 1985 the definition of settlers used by the ABS was the stated intention of the traveller only. Numerically the effect of the change in definition is insignificant. The change was made to avoid the confusion caused by minor differences between data on settlers published separately by the ABS and the DIMIA.

Permanent departures

Permanent departures are Australian residents (including former settlers) who on departure state that they are departing permanently.

Population growth

For Australia, population growth is the sum of natural increase and net overseas migration. For states and territories, population growth also includes net interstate migration. After the census, intercensal population growth also includes an allowance for intercensal discrepancy.

Rate of population growth

Population change over a period as a proportion (percentage) of the population at the beginning of the period.

Replacement fertility

Replacement level fertility is the number of babies a female would need to have over her reproductive life span to replace herself and her partner. Given the current mortality of females up to age 49 years, replacement fertility is estimated at 2.1 babies per female.

Sex ratio

The sex ratio relates to the number of males per 100 females. The sex ratio is defined for total population, at birth, at death and among age groups by appropriately selecting the numerator and denominator of the ratio.

Short-term arrivals

Short-term arrivals comprise:
  • overseas visitors who intend to stay in Australia for less than 12 months
  • Australian residents returning after a stay of less than 12 months overseas.

Short-term departures

Short-term departures comprise:
  • Australian residents who intend to stay abroad for less than 12 months
  • overseas visitors departing after a stay of less than 12 months in Australia.

Standardised death rate

Standardised death rates enable the comparison of death rates between populations with different age structures by relating them to a standard population. The ABS standard populations relate to the years ending in 1 (e.g. 1991). The current standard population is all persons in the 2001 Australian population. They are expressed per 1,000 or 100,000 persons. There
are two methods of calculating standardised death rates:
  • The direct method-this is used when the populations under study are large and the age-specific death rates are reliable. It is the overall death rate that would have prevailed in the standard population if it had experienced at each age the death rates of the population under study. This is the method used in the publication.
  • The indirect method-this is used when the populations under study are small and the age-specific death rates are unreliable or not known. It is an adjustment to the crude death rate of the standard population to account for the variation between the actual number of deaths in the population under study and the number of deaths which would have occurred if the population under study had experienced the age-specific death rates of the standard population.

State or territory and Statistical Local Area of usual residence

State or territory and Statistical Local Area of usual residence refers to the state or territory and SLA of usual residence of:
  • the population (estimated resident population)
  • the mother (birth collection)
  • the deceased (death collection).

In the case of overseas movements, state or territory of usual residence refers to the state or territory regarded by the traveller as the one in which he/she lives or has lived. State or territory of intended residence is derived from the intended
address given by settlers, and by the Australian residents returning after a journey abroad. Particularly in the case of the former, this information does not necessarily relate to the state or territory in which the traveller will eventually establish a permanent residence.

Total fertility rate

The sum of age-specific fertility rates. It represents the number of children a female would bear during her lifetime if she experienced current age-specific fertility rates at each age of her reproductive life.

Usual residence

Usual residence within Australia refers to that address at which the person has lived or intends to live for a total of six months or more in a given reference year.