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3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 25/03/2010   
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POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 September 2009 was 22,066,000 persons, an increase of 451,900 since 30 September 2008 and 110,400 persons since 30 June 2009. The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 September 2009 was 2.1%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration.


Natural Increase

Natural increase for the 12 months ended 30 September 2009 was 154,500 persons, a decline of 0.7% (or 1,100 persons) compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 September 2008 (155,600 persons).

BIRTHS

The preliminary estimate for births during the year ended 30 September 2009 (296,300) was 0.3% lower than the figure for the year ended 30 September 2008 (297,000).

DEATHS

The preliminary estimate for deaths during the year ended 30 September 2009 (141,800) was 0.3% higher than the figure for the year ended 30 September 2008 (141,400).


Net Overseas Migration

The preliminary estimate of NOM for the September quarter 2009 was 1,600 people (or 2.1%) lower than the estimate for September quarter 2008.

For the year ended 30 September 2009, Australia's preliminary NOM estimate was 297,400 persons. This was the difference between 526,600 overseas arrivals that were added to the population (NOM arrivals) and 229,200 overseas departures that were subtracted from the population (NOM departures). The contribution made to population growth by NOM (66%) was higher than that of natural increase (34%).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The estimated resident populations for the states and territories at 30 September 2009 were as follows:

  • New South Wales 7,165,000;
  • Victoria 5,473,000;
  • Queensland 4,450,000;
  • South Australia 1,629,000;
  • Western Australia 2,260,000;
  • Tasmania 504,400;
  • Northern Territory 227,000 ; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 353,600.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth over the 12 months ended 30 September 2009. Western Australia recorded the fastest growth rate (2.9%), followed by Queensland (2.7%), the Northern Territory (2.3%), Victoria (2.2%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.9%), New South Wales (1.7%), South Australia (1.3%) and Tasmania (1.0%).


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 September 2009, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

Population Components as a proportion of total growth(a) - Year ended 30 September 2009
Graph: Population Components as a proportion of total growth(a)—Year ended 30 September 2009



Natural Increase

As illustrated in the graph above, for the year ended 30 September 2009, natural increase was the major component of population growth in the Northern Territory at 55% (2,800 persons) and Tasmania at 51% (2,500 persons) for the year ended 30 September 2009.

Estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of births deaths registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).

BIRTHS

The total number of births registered for the 12 months ended 30 September 2009 increased in Queensland (9.7%), the Australian Capital Territory (2.9%) and Western Australia (1.1%) compared with the previous year. Declines in the number of births registered were recorded in New South Wales (minus 7.5%) and the Nothern Territory (minus 4.2%). The remaining states and territories remained relatively stable compared with the previous year.

DEATHS

The total number of deaths registered for the 12 months ended 30 September 2009 increased in Victoria (1.9%) and Tasmania (1.4%) compared with the previous year. Declines in the number of deaths registered were recorded in the Northern Territory (minus 7.0%) and the Australian Capital Territory (minus 1.6%). The remaining states and territories remained relatively stable compared with the previous year.


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive net overseas migration (NOM) for the year ended 30 September 2009. NOM was the major component of population growth for South Australia at 85% (17,700 persons), New South Wales at 76% (89,100 persons), Victoria at 70% (82,100 persons), Western Australia at 66% (42,500 persons), the Australian Capital Territory at 61% (4,000 persons) and Queensland at 50% (58,100 persons).


Net Interstate Migration

Queensland recorded the highest positive net interstate migration for the year ended 30 September 2009 with a gain of 16,000 persons. Other states and territories that recorded positive net interstate migration were Western Australia (3,400 persons), Victoria (990 persons), the Northern Territory (520 persons) and Tasmania (410 persons). Negative net interstate migration was recorded in New South Wales with a loss of 16,700 persons, South Australia with 4,000 persons and the Australian Capital Territory with 620 persons.

Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - Year ended 30 September 2009
Graph: Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and territories—Year ended 30 September 2009



International Comparison

For the 12 months ended 30 September 2009, Australia's population growth rate (2.1%) was almost double that of the world (1.1%). Australia is now growing at a faster rate than many countries including the Philippines (2.0%), Malaysia (1.7%), India (1.4%), Indonesia and Viet Nam (both 1.1%), Singapore and the United States of America (both 1.0%), New Zealand (0.9%), Canada (0.8%), France (0.5%), China and Hong Kong (both 0.5%), the United Kingdom and the Republic of Korea (both 0.3%), Sweden (0.2%) and Greece (0.1%). Japan experienced a decrease in its population (-0.2%), while Italy recorded no population growth (0.0%). Papua New Guinea experienced a population growth rate equivalent to Australia (2.1%).

According to figures from the US Bureau of Census' International Data Bank of 227 countries, Australia's population ranked 55th in 2009 (stable from 55th in 2008) and is projected to rank 59th by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.66 billion people compared with 1.30 billion in China.

Population, Growth Rate and Rank, Summary

Estimated Population
Projected population
Rank
2008
2009
Growth Rate
2050
2009
2050
Selected Countries
million
million
%
million
no.
no.

Australia
21.0
22
2.1
34
55
59
Canada
33
33
0.8
41
36
45
China (excl. SARs and Taiwan)
1 317
1 324
0.5
1 304
1
2
France
64
64
0.5
70
21
24
Greece
11
11
0.1
10
75
95
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
7
7
0.5
6
99
115
India
1 141
1 157
1.4
1 657
2
1
Indonesia
238
240
1.1
313
4
4
Italy
58
58
-
50
23
34
Japan
127
127
-0.2
94
10
18
Korea, Republic of
48
49
0.3
43
26
41
Malaysia
25
26
1.7
43
46
42
New Zealand
4
4
0.9
5
124
121
Papua New Guinea
6
6
2.1
10
106
94
Philippines
96
98
2.0
172
12
11
Singapore
5
5
1.0
5
118
127
Sweden
9
9
0.2
9
88
101
United Kingdom
61
61
0.3
64
22
27
United States of America
304
307
1.0
439
3
3
Viet Nam
88
89
1.1
111
13
15
World
6 681
6 756
1.1
9 202
. .
. .

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
Source: Australian estimates, this issue of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); Australian projections, Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0); selected country and world estimates and projections, US Bureau of Census, International Data Base (IDB).



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