3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2013 Quality Declaration 
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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY


ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 30 JUNE 2013


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2013 was 23,130,900 people. This reflects an increase of 407,000 people since 30 June 2012 and 95,700 people since 31 March 2013.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 June 2013 was 1.8%. This continues the trend of an increasing rate from a recent low of 1.4% for the year ended June 2011.

ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a), Australia
Graph: ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a), Australia



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 June 2013 was higher for net overseas migration (60%) than for natural increase (40%). The contribution of NOM to population growth for the year ending 30 June 2013 increased from 59% for the year ending 30 June 2012 whilst the contribution of natural increase to population growth decreased from 41% over the same period.

COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a), Australia
Graph: COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a), Australia



Natural Increase

Estimated Natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2013 was 162,700 people, an increase of 2.4%, or 3,800 people, when compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2012 (158,800 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 June 2013 (311,400 births) was 1.8%, or 5,400 births, higher than the figure for the year ended 30 June 2012 (306,000 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 June 2013 (148,800 deaths) was 1.1%, or 1,600 deaths, higher than the figure for the year ended 30 June 2012 (147,200 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 30 June 2013, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 244,400 people. This was 8.6% (19,300 people) higher than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 30 June 2012 (225,100 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 6.2% (29,900 people) between the years ended 30 June 2012 (478,800 people) and 30 June 2013 (508,700 people).

NOM departures increased by 4.2% (10,600 people) between the years ended 30 June 2012 (253,700 people) and 30 June 2013 (264,300 people).

The preliminary net overseas migration estimate for the June quarter 2013 (52,200 people) was 11.4% (5,400 people) higher than the estimate for the June quarter 2012 (46,800 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The estimated resident population for each state and territory at 30 June 2013 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,407,700;
  • Victoria 5,737,600;
  • Queensland 4,658,600;
  • South Australia 1,670,800;
  • Western Australia 2,517,200;
  • Tasmania 513,000;
  • Northern Territory 239,500; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 383,400.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2013. Western Australia continued to record the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 3.3%. Tasmania recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.2%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2013, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 30 June 2013, natural increase was the major component of population change in the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania. Net overseas migration was the major component of population change in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. A net interstate migration loss was the highest contributor to population change in Tasmania. Net interstate migration losses were also recorded in New South Wales, South Australia and the Northern Territory.


Natural Increase

Births

The total number of births registered for the year ended 30 June 2013 increased in all states and territories when compared to the previous year, except for Tasmania (which decreased by 4.2%). The largest percentage increase of registered births were recorded in Western Australia at 5.1% (an increase of 1,680 births). This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory (2.2%), New South Wales (2.0%), Victoria (1.9%), the Northern Territory (1.2%), Queensland (0.7%) and South Australia (0.4%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 30 June 2013 increased for all states and territories, except for the Australian Capital Territory (where it decreased 1.7%) and Victoria (decreased 1.4%), when compared with the previous year. The largest percentage increase was in Tasmania, where there was an increase of 190 deaths between the year ended 30 June 2013 and the previous year (4.4%). For more information, see table 14.

Estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded both positive and increased net overseas migration (NOM) when compared to the previous year ended 30 June 2012. New South Wales recorded the largest numerical increase of 10,800 people (19.0%) and Western Australia recorded the smallest numerical and percentage increase at 0.2% (100 people). The Northern Territory recorded the largest percentage increase at 27.1% (700 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

When compared to the year ended 30 June 2012, all states and territories recorded increases in NOM arrivals. The largest percentage increase was recorded by the Northern Territory at 16.2% (1,000 people). South Australia recorded the smallest percentage increase of 2.2% (500 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

When compared to the year ended 30 June 2012, all states and territories recorded increases in NOM departures. The largest percentage increase was recorded by Western Australia at 11.4% (3,400 people). Tasmania recorded the smallest percentage increase of 2.0% (50 people). For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

Queensland recorded the highest gains from net interstate migration (NIM) for the year ended 30 June 2013 (9,500 people), followed by Western Australia (8,000 people). Other states and territories which recorded net gains were Victoria (4,700 people) and the Australian Capital Territory (1,600 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (15,500 people), South Australia (4,200 people), Tasmania (2,200 people) and the Northern Territory (1,800 people). For more information, see table 19.

Interstate Migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and Territories - Year ended June 2013
Graph: Interstate Migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and Territories—Year ended June 2013



International Comparison

For the 12 months ended 30 June 2013, Australia's population growth rate of 1.8% was above that of the world at 1.2%. Australia is growing at a faster rate than most countries including the Philippines (1.7%), Malaysia (1.6%), India and Indonesia (both 1.2%), Canada, New Zealand and Viet Nam (all 1.0%), Hong Kong (SAR of China) and the United States of America (both 0.8%), South Africa (0.7%), China, France, Sweden and the United Kingdom (all 0.6%), Republic of Korea (0.5%), and Italy (0.2%). Greece experienced no growth (0.0%) and Japan experienced a decrease in population growth (-0.1%). Two countries that experienced faster growth than Australia were Singapore (2.0%) and Papua New Guinea (2.2%). According to figures from the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Australia's population ranked 51st in 2013 (holding the same rank as in 2012) and is projected to rank 55th by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.62 billion people compared with 1.39 billion in China.

POPULATION, GROWTH RATE AND RANK - Summary(a)

ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
PROJECTED POPULATION
RANK
2012(b)
2013(b)
Growth Rate
2050
2013
2050
Selected Countries
million
million
%
million
no.
no.

Australia
23
23
1.8
38
51
55
Canada
35
35
1.0
45
37
43
China (excl. SARs and Taiwan)
1 377
1 386
0.6
1 385
1
2
France
64
64
0.6
73
21
23
Greece
11
11
-
11
77
96
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
7
7
0.8
8
102
111
India
1 237
1 252
1.2
1 620
2
1
Indonesia
247
250
1.2
321
4
5
Italy
61
61
0.2
60
23
31
Japan
127
127
-0.1
108
10
16
Republic of Korea
49
49
0.5
51
26
38
Malaysia
29
30
1.6
42
43
50
New Zealand
4
5
1.0
6
122
124
Papua New Guinea
7
7
2.2
13
99
89
Philippines
97
98
1.7
157
12
10
Singapore
5
5
2.0
7
115
116
South Africa
52
53
0.7
63
25
28
Sweden
10
10
0.6
12
89
91
United Kingdom
63
63
0.6
73
22
24
United States of America
318
320
0.8
401
3
4
Viet Nam
91
92
1.0
104
14
18
World
7 080
7 162
1.2
9 551
. .
. .

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Selected countries include major OECD countries, the world's most populous countries, Australia's closest neighbours and trading partners.
(b) Selected country and world estimates for 2012, 2013 and 2050 are projected estimates from United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. (medium variant projections, 2010 base).
Source: Australian estimates, this issue of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); Australian projections, Series B in Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0); selected country and world estimates and projections, United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. (medium variant projections).