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3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2012 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 18/12/2012   
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ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 30 JUNE 2012


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2012 was 22,683,600 people. This reflects an increase of 359,600 people since 30 June 2011 and 87,100 people since 31 March 2012.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 June 2012 was 1.6%. This continues an increasing rate from a low of 1.1% for the year ending March 2011.

ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a), Australia
Graph: ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a), Australia



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 June 2012 was higher for net overseas migration (58%) than for natural increase (42%). The contribution of NOM to population growth for the year ending June 2012 increased from 53% for the year ending 30 June 2011 whilst the contribution of natural increase to population growth decreased from 47% over the same period.

COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a), Australia
Graph: COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a), Australia



Natural Increase

Natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2012 was 151,300 people, an increase of 0.5%, or 800 people, when compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2011 (150,500 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 June 2012 (297,800 births) was 0.4%, or 1,100 births, higher than the figure for the year ended 30 June 2011 (296,800 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 June 2012 (146,500 deaths) was 0.2%, or 200 deaths, higher than the figure for the year ended 30 June 2011 (146,300 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 30 June 2012, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration estimate was 208,300 people. This was 22.3% (38,100 people) higher than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 30 June 2011 (170,300 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 11.4% (48,300 people) between the years ended 30 June 2011 (423,900 people) and 30 June 2012 (472,100 people).

NOM departures increased by 4.0% (10,200 people) between the years ended 30 June 2011 (253,600 people) and 30 June 2012 (263,800 people).

The preliminary net overseas migration estimate for the June quarter 2012 (46,700 people) was 31.5% (11,200 people) higher than the estimate for the June quarter 2011 (35,500 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The estimated resident population for each state and territory at 30 June 2012 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,290,300;
  • Victoria 5,623,500;
  • Queensland 4,560,100;
  • South Australia 1,654,800;
  • Western Australia 2,430,300;
  • Tasmania 512,000;
  • Northern Territory 234,800; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 374,700.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2012. Western Australia continued to record the fastest growth rate of all states and territories with 3.3%. Tasmania recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.2%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2012, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 30 June 2012, natural increase was the major component of population change in Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory. Net overseas migration was the major component of population change in South Australia, followed by New South Wales, Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland. Net interstate migration losses were recorded in New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.


Natural Increase

Estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).

Births

The total number of births registered for the year ended 30 June 2012 increased in half of the states and territories, with the largest percentage increase of registered births being recorded in the Northern Territory at 4.4% (170 births). This was followed by Western Australia (4.1%), South Australia (3.4%) and Victoria (2.9%). Tasmania recorded the largest percentage decrease in births at 4.4% (290 births), followed by Queensland (3.5%), New South Wales (0.6%) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.4%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 30 June 2012 decreased for all states and territories, except for Western Australia (2.8%), New South Wales (2.2%) and Queensland (1.8%), when compared with the previous year. The largest decrease was in Victoria where there was a drop of 1,300 deaths between the year ended 30 June 2012 and the previous year (3.6% drop). For more information, see table 14.


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded both positive and increased net overseas migration (NOM) when compared to the previous year. Western Australia recorded the largest numerical increase at 16,300 people (53.0%) whilst Tasmania recorded the lowest at 300 (25.6%). New South Wales recorded the smallest percentage increase at 7.1% (3,500 people) and the Northern Territory recorded the largest percentage increase at 218.1% (1,400 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

When compared to the year ended 30 June 2011, all states and territories recorded increases in NOM arrivals. The largest percentage increase was recorded by the Northern Territory at 32.9% (1,400 people). New South Wales recorded the smallest percentage increase of 4.7% (6,600 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

When compared to the year ended 31 June 2011, increases in NOM departures were recorded for all states and territories except for Tasmania which remained stable. Western Australia recorded the largest percentage increase in departures, up 8.1% (2,400 people). For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

Queensland recorded the highest gains from net interstate migration (NIM) for the year ended 30 June 2012 (11,800 people), closely followed by Western Australia (11,100 people). Other states and territories which recorded net gains were Victoria (1,200 people) and the Australian Capital Territory (700 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (18,400 people), Tasmania (2,600 people), South Australia (2,400 people) and the Northern Territory (1,500 people). For more information, see table 19.

Interstate Migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - Year ended 30 June 2012
Graph: Interstate Migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and territories—Year ended 30 June 2012



INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

For the 12 months ended 30 June 2011, Australia's population growth rate (1.2%) was above that of the world (1.1%). Australia is growing at a faster rate than many countries including New Zealand and Viet Nam (both 1.1%), Indonesia, Hong Kong and Canada (all 1.0%), United States of America (0.9%), Sweden and South Africa (both 0.7%), the United Kingdom (0.6%), France and China (both 0.5%), Italy and Republic of Korea (both 0.4%) and Greece (0.3%). Further, Japan experienced neutral growth (0.0%). Five countries that experienced faster growth than Australia were India (1.4%), Malaysia (1.6%), the Philippines (1.7%), Singapore (2.0%) and Papua New Guinea (2.3%). According to figures from the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Australia's population ranked 52nd in 2011 (which is equal to its rank in 2010) and is projected to rank 59th by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.69 billion people compared with 1.30 billion in China.

POPULATION, GROWTH RATE AND RANK(a), Summary

Estimated Resident Population
Projected Population
Rank
2010
2011
Growth Rate
2050
2011
2050
Selected Countries
million
million
%
million
no.
no.

Australia
22
22
1.2
34
52
59
Canada
34
34
1.0
44
36
47
China (excl. SARs and Taiwan)
1 341
1 348
0.5
1 296
1
2
France
63
63
0.5
72
21
27
Greece
11
11
0.3
12
74
87
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
7
7
1.0
9
100
102
India
1 225
1 241
1.4
1 692
2
1
Indonesia
240
242
1.0
293
4
5
Italy
61
61
0.4
59
23
31
Japan
127
126
-
109
10
16
Republic of Korea
48
48
0.4
47
25
41
Malaysia
28
29
1.6
43
44
48
New Zealand
4
4
1.1
6
122
122
Papua New Guinea
7
7
2.3
14
101
81
Philippines
93
95
1.7
155
12
9
Singapore
5
5
2.0
6
116
117
South Africa
50
50
0.7
57
24
32
Sweden
9
9
0.7
11
90
93
United Kingdom
62
62
0.6
73
22
26
United States of America
310
313
0.9
403
3
3
Viet Nam
88
89
1.1
104
13
17
World
6 896
6 974
1.1
9 306
. .
. .

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Selected countries include major OECD countries, the world's most populous countries, Australia's closest neighbours and trading partners.
Source: Australian estimates, this issue of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); Australian projections, Series B in Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0); selected country and world estimates and projections,United Nations World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision. (medium variant projections).


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