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3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Dec 2011 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 20/06/2012   
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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY


PRELIMINARY REBASED POPULATION ESTIMATES


CHANGES DUE TO THE 2011 CENSUS

After each Census, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) uses the new information obtained to rebase the estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia and its States and Territories. In this issue, the ABS has used the 2011 Census of Population and Housing (2011 Census) to produce preliminary rebased estimates of the resident population.

Census counts by place of usual residence have been used to construct a new base population figure for 30 June 2011. Because this new population estimate uses the Census as its main data source, it is said to be 'based' on that Census and is referred to as a population base. Rebasing refers to the process by which the ABS uses this new base derived from the 2011 Census to update all previously published quarterly population estimates from 30 September 2006 to 30 June 2011 (the recent intercensal period). The difference between these two series of population figures during the preliminary rebasing phase is referred to as intercensal error, as shown in the graph below.

Census based population estimates(a), Australia
Graph: Census based population estimates(a), Australia


The preliminary rebased population estimates released in this issue will be updated to produce final rebased estimates in the December quarter 2012 issue of this publication (for release June 2013). For further information, refer to the following feature article Preliminary Rebasing of Australia's Population Estimates Using 2011 Census of Population and Housing.


PRELIMINARY DATA

Due to the collection and estimation methods applied to produce preliminary population statistics from the components of population change, users should exercise caution when analysing and interpreting the most recent annual and quarterly estimates for all components of ERP, particularly when making time series comparisons.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth in Australia's population has two main components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM) which is the net gain or loss of population through immigration to Australia and emigration from Australia. A third component, which can only be measured after each census, is intercensal error, which is the residual error related to measurement of any of the components or to the population estimate at the start and/or end of the five-yearly period. Intercensal error cannot be attributed to any other component of population change and is assumed to have accumulated over the intercensal period. The intercensal error related to the 2011 Census is discussed in the accompanying feature article titled "Preliminary Rebasing of Australia's Population" as well as in the accompanying Technical Note. At the state and territory level, population growth has a further component, which is net interstate migration. For information on the concepts and methods used for each of the components see the Explanatory Notes.


5 YEARS OF POPULATION CHANGE - THE RECENT INTERCENSAL PERIOD


POPULATION AND GROWTH (2006 TO 2011)

The preliminary rebased ERP of Australia at 30 June 2011 was 22,323,900 persons, an increase over the most recent intercensal period (2006-2011) of 1,626,100. During this five year period, the population grew by 7.9% compared with 6.6% for the previous intercensal period (2001-2006) where growth was 1,284,600.

At 30 June 2011, the preliminary rebased ERP for the states and territories were as follows: New South Wales 7,211,500, Victoria 5,534,500, Queensland 4,474,100, South Australia 1,638,200, Western Australia 2,352,200, Tasmania 511,200, the Northern Territory 231,300 and the Australian Capital Territory 367,800.

Over the last five years (2006-2011), all states and territories experienced population growth. Western Australia experienced the fastest growth by far, increasing 14.2%. This was followed by the Australian Capital Territory (10.1%), the Northern Territory (9.8%), Queensland (9.4%), Victoria (8.0%), New South Wales (5.8%), South Australia (4.5%) and then Tasmania with the smallest growth (4.3%).

Total Population Growth, Intercensal periods - 2001 to 2011
Graph: Total Population Growth, Intercensal periods—2001 to 2011


The national average annual growth rate for the five year period from June 2006 to June 2011 was 1.5%. This was higher than the 20 year average (1991-2011) and the previous five year average (2001-2006) both 1.3%.

Over the recent intercensal period (2006-2011), the average annual growth rates for the states and territories from highest to lowest were as follows: Western Australia 2.7%, the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory both at 1.9%, Queensland 1.8%, Victoria 1.5%, New South Wales 1.1% and South Australia and Tasmania both at 0.9%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

During the past five years (2006-2011), natural increase contributed 744,100 persons to Australia's total population growth, compared to 601,400 in the previous intercensal period (2001-2006). Net overseas migration, on the other hand, contributed 1,176,400 persons, compared to 597,500 in the previous intercensal period.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth over the previous five year period, June 2006 to June 2011, the proportion attributed to each component varied considerably between the states and territories.

Population Components, Proportion of total growth(a) - 5 years ended 30 June 2011
Graph: Population Components, Proportion of total growth(a)—5 years ended 30 June 2011



Natural increase

As illustrated in the graph above, for the five year period 2006 to 2011, natural increase was the main component of population growth for Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory.

BIRTHS

When comparing the number of births recorded between the recent intercensal period (2006-2011) (1,452,200) and the previous intercensal period (2001-2006) (1,262,500), there was a 15.0% increase at the national level. All states and territories recorded an increase in births for this period, with the largest increase being recorded in Queensland (22.9%). This was followed by Western Australia (22.0%), the Australian Capital Territory (17.2%), Victoria (14.1%), South Australia (11.8%), Tasmania (11.6%), New South Wales (10.2%) and the Northern Territory (4.4%).

DEATHS

Comparing the number of deaths recorded between the recent intercensal period (2006-2011) (708,200) and the previous intercensal period (2001-2006) (661,100) there was a 7.1% increase at the national level. All states and territories recorded an increase in deaths for this period, with the largest increase being recorded in the Australian Capital Territory (13.2%). This was followed by Queensland (10.5%), Western Australia (10.3%), the Northern Territory (9.3%), Victoria (8.2%), Tasmania (7.1%), South Australia (4.8%) and New South Wales (4.2%).


Net overseas migration

Net overseas migration made a significant contribution (61.3%) to population growth over the five year period 2006 to 2011. It was the major component of population growth in the five most populous states of Australia, New South Wales (73.0%), Victoria (64.5%), Queensland (46.4%), Western Australia (60.9%) and South Australia (80.5%).

NOM was also the driver of significant changes in growth rates over the five year period. At the start of the intercensal period (September 2006) Australia's annual growth rate was 1.5%. This annual growth rate increased to a peak of 1.9% in December 2008 and then decreased to a low of 1.1% in March 2011. At the end of the intercensal period (June 2011) the annual growth rate was 1.2%.


Net interstate migration

Within Australia during the past five years (June 2006 to June 2011), preliminary estimates reveal there were 1.75 million interstate movements, which is 122,200 less than the previous intercensal period (2001-2006) (1.87 million). As illustrated in the previous graph, net interstate migration was not the major component of population growth in any state or territory.

Between June 2006 and June 2011, Queensland consistently recorded the highest yearly gain in interstate migration, increasing its population by 85,200 persons in the process. This was followed by Western Australia (22,900), the Australian Capital Territory (2,100), Victoria (1,900) and Tasmania (370).

The remaining states and territories lost population through interstate migration over the same five year period with New South Wales losing the most at 92,900, followed by South Australia which lost 18,400 and the Northern Territory which lost 1,200.

Over the five year period (2006-2011), the largest interstate movement was the 235,100 persons moving from New South Wales to Queensland. However, the second largest movement was the inverse of this, with 176,100 persons moving from Queensland to New South Wales. The next largest movement was those persons moving from New South Wales to Victoria (117,200 persons).

The above analysis on net interstate migration is based on preliminary results and will be revised in the December Quarter 2012 issue of this publication. For more information see paragraphs 22-26 of the Explanatory Notes.

Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net - States and territories - 5 Years ended 30 June 2011
Graph: Interstate migration, Arrivals, Departures and Net—States and territories—5 Years ended 30 June 2011



AGE COMPOSITION AND SEX RATIOS - THE PAST 20 YEARS


AGE COMPOSITION

Australia's population has continued to age over the last 20 years (1991-2011) with the median age increasing from 32.4 years to 37.3 years. The proportion of persons aged 65 years and over increased from 11.3% of the total population in 1991 to 13.8% in 2011, while the proportion aged 85 years and over doubled during this time, from 0.9% to 1.8%. Conversely, over the last 20 years, the proportion of the population aged 0-14 years has decreased, from 21.9% in 1991 to 18.9% in 2011.

During this 20 year period, the population of every state and territory has been ageing, with the median age increasing for each. Tasmania, with the oldest population in 2011, recorded the largest increase in its median age, increasing from 32.4 years in 1991 to 40.4 years in 2011. The Northern Territory, with the youngest population, recorded an increase in its median age from 26.9 years in 1991 to 31.4 years in 2011.

All states and territories experienced an increase in the proportion of their populations aged 65 years and over during this same period, with the largest increase recorded in the Australian Capital Territory (6.2% to 10.5%). For the 85 years and over age group, the largest increase was experienced by South Australia, from 1.0% in 1991 to 2.3% in 2011. Tasmania had the largest proportion of its population aged 65 years and over in 2011 with 16.1%, an increase from 11.9% in 1991.

The Northern Territory continued to have the largest proportion aged 0-14 years at 22.6%, which reflects a decrease from 27.8% in 1991 following a national downward trend.

Age Composition and Median Ages of the Population, At 30 June

0-14 YEARS
15-64 YEARS
65 YEARS AND OVER
85 YEARS AND OVER
MEDIAN AGE
1991
2006
2011
1991
2006
2011
1991
2006
2011
1991
2006
2011
1991
2006
2011
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
years
years
years

NSW
21.6
19.6
18.9
66.6
66.9
66.7
11.9
13.5
14.5
0.9
1.6
2.0
32.9
36.8
37.7
Vic.
21.3
19.0
18.2
67.2
67.6
67.8
11.5
13.4
14.0
1.0
1.6
1.9
32.5
36.7
37.3
Qld
22.7
20.4
19.8
66.5
67.5
67.2
10.8
12.1
12.9
0.8
1.4
1.6
31.8
36.0
36.6
SA
20.7
18.3
17.7
66.4
66.6
66.4
12.9
15.1
15.9
1.0
2.0
2.3
33.6
38.8
39.5
WA
23.2
19.9
19.2
67.1
68.3
68.7
9.7
11.8
12.1
0.8
1.3
1.5
31.5
36.2
36.3
Tas.
23.1
19.7
18.7
65.0
65.7
65.3
11.9
14.6
16.1
0.9
1.7
2.0
32.4
38.8
40.4
NT
27.8
24.5
22.6
69.5
70.9
71.8
2.6
4.6
5.5
0.1
0.3
0.3
26.9
30.9
31.4
ACT
23.5
18.8
18.1
70.3
71.7
71.4
6.2
9.5
10.5
0.4
1.0
1.3
29.5
34.4
34.5
Aust.(a)
21.9
19.6
18.9
66.8
67.4
67.3
11.3
13.0
13.8
0.9
1.6
1.8
32.4
36.6
37.3

(a) Includes Other Territories - see paragraph 2 of the Explanatory Notes.



SEX RATIO

The proportion of males to females in the population has also been changing over time.

Over the last 20 years the sex ratio (the number of males to every 100 females) of the Australian population has decreased from 99.4 in 1991 to 98.9 in 2011. In 1991, populations of the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland all contained more males than females. By 30 June 2011 only the Northern Territory and Western Australia had more males.

Sex Ratios of the Population(a), At 30 June

1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
ratio
ratio
ratio
ratio
ratio

NSW
99.1
98.6
98.6
98.1
98.5
Vic.
98.4
97.6
97.0
97.8
97.8
Qld
100.4
100.4
99.1
99.6
99.4
SA
98.5
97.9
97.7
97.5
97.9
WA
101.2
101.1
100.2
101.8
101.2
Tas.
98.4
97.6
97.1
97.2
99.1
NT
109.8
111.0
109.7
107.9
110.6
ACT
100.0
98.5
97.4
97.9
98.8
Aust.(b)
99.4
99.0
98.4
98.7
98.9

(a) The sex ratio relates to the number of males per 100 females.
(b) Includes Other Territories - see paragraph 2 of the Explanatory Notes.


Over the last five years the national sex ratio has increased slightly from 98.7 in 2006 to 98.9 in 2011 in contrast to the longer term decline. During the same five year period, an increase in the sex ratio was recorded for New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory. Victoria recorded the lowest sex ratio in June 2011 at 97.8 males per 100 females whereas the Northern Territory had remained the highest at 110.6. The increase in Australia's sex ratio is due to more males than females migrating to Australia and life expectancy increasing faster for males than for females.


ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 31 DECEMBER 2011


AUSTRALIA POPULATION AND GROWTH 2011

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 31 December 2011 was 22,485,300 persons. This is an increase of 302,600 persons since 31 December 2010 and 82,400 persons since 30 September 2011. The annual population growth rate for the year ended 31 December 2011 was 1.4%.

ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a), Australia
Graph: ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE(a), Australia



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (the number of overseas arrivals minus the number of overseas departures).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 31 December 2011 was higher for net overseas migration (55%) than for natural increase (45%).

COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a), Australia
Graph: COMPONENTS OF ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH(a), Australia



Natural Increase

Natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2011 was 149,700 persons, an increase of 2.5%, or 3,600 persons, when compared with natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2010 (146,000 persons).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 31 December 2011 (296,700 births) was 2.5%, or 7,200 births, higher than the figure for the year ended 31 December 2010 (289,500 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 31 December 2011 (147,000 deaths) was 2.5%, or 3,600 deaths, higher than the figure for the year ended 31 December 2010 (143,400 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 31 December 2011, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration estimate was 184,000 persons. This was 9.0% (15,100 persons) higher than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 31 December 2010 (168,800 persons).

NOM arrivals increased by 4.3% (18,100 persons) between the years ended 31 December 2010 (423,100 persons) and 31 December 2011 (441,200 persons).

NOM departures increased by 1.2% (3,000 persons) between the years ended 31 December 2010 (254,300 persons) and 31 December 2011 (257,300 persons).

The preliminary net overseas migration estimate for the December quarter 2011 (46,000 persons) was 33.3% (11,500 persons) higher than the estimate for the December quarter 2010 (34,500 persons).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The estimated resident population for each state and territory at 31 December 2011 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,247,700;
  • Victoria 5,574,500;
  • Queensland 4,513,000;
  • South Australia 1,645,000;
  • Western Australia 2,387,200;
  • Tasmania 511,700;
  • Northern Territory 232,400; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 370,700.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 31 December 2011. Western Australia continued to record the fastest growth rate of all states and territories with 2.9%. Tasmania recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.4%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 31 December 2011, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 31 December 2011, natural increase was the major component of population change in the Northern Territory, Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and Queensland and net overseas migration was the major component of population change in New South Wales, followed by South Australia, Western Australia and Victoria. Net interstate migration losses were recorded in New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.


Natural Increase

Estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).

Births

The total number of births registered for the year ended 31 December 2011 increased in all states and territories, when compared with the previous year. The largest percentage increase of registered births was recorded in the Tasmania at 8.1% (500 births). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 31 December 2011 increased for all states and territories, except for South Australia and the Northern Territory, when compared with the previous year. South Australia and the Northern Territory each recorded a decrease of 2% since the year ended 31 December 2010. The largest percentage increase was recorded by New South Wales at 5.8% (2,800 deaths). For more information, see table 14.


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive net overseas migration (NOM) for the year ended 31 December 2011. When compared to the previous year, all states and territories, except for South Australia and Tasmania, recorded an increase in net overseas migration. Proportionally, Western Australia recorded the largest increase with net overseas migration 42.0% (11,600 persons), up on the previous year. South Australia recorded a decrease of 18.8% (2,100 persons). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

When compared to the year ended 31 December 2010, all states and territories, except for South Australia and Tasmania, recorded increases in NOM arrivals. The largest percentage decrease was recorded by South Australia at 8.0% (1,800 persons). Western Australia recorded an increase of 19.4% (11,200 persons). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

When compared to the year ended 31 December 2010, increases in NOM departures were recorded for New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The largest percentage increase was recorded by the Northern Territory at 8.6% (310 persons). Decreases in NOM departures, for the same period, were recorded for Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. The largest percentage decrease was recorded by Tasmania at 5.8% (100 persons). For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

Queensland recorded the highest gains from net interstate migration (NIM) for the year ended 31 December 2011 (9,600 persons). Other states and territories which recorded net gains were Western Australia (8,500 persons), Victoria (3,300 persons) and the Australian Capital Territory (600 persons). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (16,100 persons), South Australia (2,300 persons), the Northern Territory (2,200 persons) and Tasmania (1,400 persons). For more information, see table 19.

INTERSTATE MIGRATION, Arrivals, Departures and Net-Year ended - 31 December 2011
Graph: INTERSTATE MIGRATION, Arrivals, Departures and Net—Year ended—31 March 2011



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