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1308.8 - In fACT - Statistical Information on the ACT and Region, Aug 2010  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 25/08/2010   
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FEATURE ARTICLE 2: SCHOOL AGE POPULATION WITHIN THE AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL REGION


As the economic centre of the Australian Capital Region (ACR), ACT is impacted on by the changing demographic profile in the region. As the population grows in the ACR, the estimated resident population of the younger population is in decline. It was highlighted in the first feature article that the younger population has decreased in the ACT. This article will analyse the younger estimated resident population of the ACR and further analyse the NSW Statistical subdivisions (SSD) within the ACR. Analysis of the younger population will be broken down into two categories, Primary school age group (people aged 5 to 12 years) and Secondary school age group (people aged 13 to 18 years) by Statistical subdivision. The number of births registered in the NSW SSDs within the ACR will provide an indication of which areas are likely to grow.


Younger population within the ACR

In the five years to 30 June 2009, the Primary school age group in the ACR decreased by an average of 0.5%, while the Secondary school age group grew by 0.1% on average per year since 30 June 2004.

At 30 June 2009, the estimated resident population of the ACR Primary school age group was 58,700 people, down 1,600 people (-2.7%) since 30 June 2004. Since June 2004, the Primary school age group has declined by an average of 0.5% per year, compared to the total ACR population (up 1.4%). At 30 June 2009, the Primary school age group made up 9.9% of the total population for ACR. This was just lower than the national proportion of 10.0%.

At 30 June 2009, the estimated resident population of the ACR Secondary school age group was 47,500 people, up 200 people (+0.5%, or +0.1% per year on average) since 30 June 2004. Over the same period, the total ACR population increased by an average of 1.4% per year. At 30 June 2009, the Secondary school age group made up 8.0% of the total population for ACR. This was equal to the national proportion.

ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION, ACT and NSW SSDs within the ACR - School age groups
Graph: ACT SSDs ERP vs NSW SSDs within the ACR ERP, School age population



Demographics of Primary school age group in the NSW SSDs within the ACR

At 30 June 2009, the estimated resident population of Primary school age group of NSW SSDs within the ACR was 25,300 people, a decrease of 700 (-2.8%) since 30 June 2004. Population in this age group has declined by an average of 0.6% per year from June 2004 to June 2009. For the same period, the total population of NSW SSDs within the ACR has increased by 1.3% on average per year.

At 30 June 2009, the Primary school age group made up 10.4% of the total population of NSW SSDs within the ACR. This was higher than both the ACT (9.5%) and the national proportion (10.0%).

In the five years to 30 June 2009, the population of Queanbeyan SSD grew by 300 people, while Lower South Coast SSD fell by 500 people, Other SSD fell by 300 and Southern Tablelands SSD fell by 200. Snowy SSD remained unchanged. Queanbeyan SSD had the highest average annual growth of 0.9% for the five years to June 2009, while the Other SSD decreased by 2.0% per year on average.

As at 30 June 2009, Southern Tablelands SSD (31.2%) had the largest proportion of Primary school age group of the NSW SSDs within the ACR, followed by Lower South Coast SSD (26.6%), Queanbeyan SSD (22.4%), Other SSD (11.0%), and Snowy SSD (8.9%). As at 30 June 1999, Southern Tablelands SSD (31.4%) had largest proportion of Primary school age group of the NSW SSDs within the ACR, followed by Lower South Coast SSD (26.6%), Queanbeyan SSD (18.4%), Other SSD (12.5%), and Snowy SSD (8.8%).

ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION, Primary school age group - NSW SSDs within the ACR
Graph: ERP, Primary school age group, NSW SSDs within the ACR


Some quick facts on the Primary school age group for each NSW SSD within the ACR:
  • Queanbeyan's population grew at a steady rate.
  • Southern Tablelands' and Snowy's population remained steady from 1999 to 2009.
  • Lower South Coast's population has decreased each year from 2000.
  • Other population has decreased each year since 1999.


Demographics of Secondary school age group of the NSW SSD within the ACR

At 30 June 2009, the estimated resident population of the Secondary school age group of NSW SSDs within the ACR was 20,300 people, an increase of 1,000 (+5.4%) since 30 June 2004. This represents an annual average growth rate of 1.1%. In comparison, the average annual rate of growth for the total population of NSW SSDs within the ACR was 1.3%.

At 30 June 2009, the Secondary school age group made up 8.3% of the total population for Remainder ACR. This was higher than both the ACT (7.7%) and the national proportion (8.0%).

In the five years to 30 June 2009, the population of Southern Tablelands SSD grew by 400 people. Queanbeyan SSD grew by 300, Lower South Coast SSD by 300 and Snowy SSD by 200, while Other SSD fell by 100 people. Snowy SSD had the highest average annual growth of 1.8% for the five years to June 2009, while Other SSD decreased by 0.9% on average per year for the same period.

For 30 June 2009, Southern Tablelands SSD (30.4%) had the largest proportion of Secondary school age group in the ACR remainder. This was followed by Lower South Coast SSD (29.4%), Queanbeyan SSD (20.9%), Other SSD (10.3%), and Snowy SSD (9.2%). Southern Tablelands SSD (32.1%) also had largest proportion of Secondary school age group of NSW SSDs within the ACR at 30 June 1999, followed by Lower South Coast SSD (28.4%), Queanbeyan SSD (18.3%), Other SSD (12.4%), and Snowy SSD (8.8%).

ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION, Secondary school age group - NSW SSDs within the ACR
Graph: ERP, Secondary school age group, NSW SSDs within the ACR


Some quick facts on the Secondary school age group for each NSW SSD within the ACR:
  • The populations in Queanbeyan, Lower South Coast and Snowy all increased between 1999 and 2009.
  • Southern Tablelands' population fluctuated between 5,600 and 5,800 from 1999 and 2005 but increased each year after.
  • Other SSD population fluctuated between 2,100 and 2,200 between 1999 and 2009.


Births in the Remainder ACR

In 1998, there were 2,600 births registered as NSW SSDs residents within the ACR. Over time from 1998 to 2008, births of NSW SSDs within the ACR reached a low of 2,400 in 2002. In 2008, the number of NSW SSDs residents within the ACR born was 2,700.

BIRTHS REGISTERED AS NSW RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ACR
Graph: Births, NSW SSDs within the ACR, Between 1998 and 2008


Between 1998 and 2008, Queanbeyan SSD (+28.0%) had the largest increase in births. Lower South Coast SSD (+8.5%) was the only other SSD to record an increase, while the Other SSD (-11.6%), Southern Tablelands SSD (-3.9%) and the Snowy SSD (-1.3%) all decreased.

BIRTHS REGISTERED AS NSW RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ACR, By SSD
Graph: Births, NSW SSDs within the ACR, By SSD


Some quick facts on the births for each NSW SSD within the ACR:
  • Births of Queanbeyan residents steadily increased between 1998 and 2008
  • Births of Southern Tablelands residents steadily increased between 2004 and 2008
  • Births of Lower South Coast residents have fluctuated year-to-year but increased overall between 1998 and 2008
  • Births of Snowy residents remained steady between 1998 and 2008
  • Births of the Other residents of the ACR have steadily decreased between 1998 and 2008


Looking Forward

Population increases are prevalent in areas just outside the ACT for both Primary and Secondary school age groups and in Lower South Coast and Snowy for the Secondary school age group. Increases in areas just outside the ACT could be due to families seeking more affordable housing and lower living expenses, while Lower South Coast and Snowy's large increases could be due to opportunities of the seasonal occupations. Queanbeyan had the largest average annual growth of 1.2% for the five years to June 2009 for school age population for SSDs outside the ACT and is only surpassed by Gungahlin (average annual growth of 5.3% for the five years to June 2009) terms of growth for the ACR.


Please note

1. Population estimates up to 2006 are final, estimates for June 2007 and June 2008 have been revised and estimates for June 2009 are preliminary.
2. For the purposes of this article, the Other SSD consists of the Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Cootamundra (A), Gundagai (A), Tumut Shire (A) and Tumbarumba (A).

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