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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Nov 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/12/2003  Ceased
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This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.


NOVEMBER 2003 KEY POINTS

Trend

The rate of growth of the trend estimate for total sales of new motor vehicles has slowed over the last six months. The trend estimate decreased by 0.2% to 79,332 in November 2003 compared with October 2003. From November 2002 to November 2003 the trend estimate increased by 12.3%.

Tasmania (2.8%), Queensland (0.5%) and South Australia (0.3%) were the only states to record a growth in the trend estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles in November 2003. The Australian Capital Territory (0.7%) recorded the largest fall.

Trend estimates for the sales of total passenger vehicles fell by 0.5% and total other vehicles rose by 0.5%.

Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted estimates of total new motor vehicle sales rose by 0.1% in November 2003 compared with October 2003. The largest increase was recorded for Victoria (1.8%) and the largest decrease was recorded for Tasmania (15.5%).


NOTES


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

As advised in the October 2003 issue, concurrent seasonal adjustment has been introduced from November 2003. An explanation can be found in Explanatory Notes paragraph 8.


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1The December 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the November 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.
2The December 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the November 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.

The percentage change of 4.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 9 years has been 4.0%.

Graph - Trend revisions


This edition includes changes to the seasonally adjusted series and the trend estimate series as a result of the annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors.



SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Graph - New motor vehicle sales, Total vehicles - long term




Grahp - New motor vehicles sales, total vehicles - short term





Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change Passenger vehicles (%)
Change Other vehicles (%)
Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2002September
43,396
22,638
66,034
-3.8
-7.7
-5.2
October
48,269
24,063
72,332
11.2
6.3
9.5
November
47,229
24,346
71,575
-2.2
1.2
-1.0
December
45,317
22,656
67,973
-4.0
-6.9
-5.0
2003January
40,015
21,155
61,170
-11.7
-6.6
-10.0
February
43,677
23,058
66,735
9.2
9.0
9.1
March
49,921
26,192
76,113
14.3
13.6
14.1
April
44,602
24,263
68,865
-10.7
-7.4
-9.5
May
49,646
28,616
78,262
11.3
17.9
13.6
June
57,086
34,972
92,058
15.0
22.2
17.6
July
51,450
28,071
79,521
-9.9
-19.7
-13.6
August
49,869
26,304
76,173
-3.1
-6.3
-4.2
September
51,749
26,042
77,791
3.8
-1.0
2.1
October
52,180
27,045
79,225
0.8
3.9
1.8
November
48,482
27,630
76,112
-7.1
2.2
-3.9

Seasonally Adjusted

2002September
45,698
25,009
70,707
1.3
0.8
1.1
October
45,614
24,507
70,121
-0.2
-2.0
-0.8
November
46,086
24,223
70,309
1.0
-1.2
0.3
December
42,109
21,532
63,641
-8.6
-11.1
-9.5
2003January
47,471
26,138
73,609
12.7
21.4
15.7
February
46,876
24,892
71,768
-1.3
-4.8
-2.5
March
48,196
25,697
73,893
2.8
3.2
3.0
April
48,866
26,062
74,928
1.4
1.4
1.4
May
50,048
26,881
76,929
2.4
3.1
2.7
June
50,390
27,410
77,800
0.7
2.0
1.1
July
49,950
27,832
77,782
-0.9
1.5
0.0
August
51,563
27,356
78,919
3.2
-1.7
1.5
September
53,021
27,813
80,834
2.8
1.7
2.4
October
49,358
27,665
77,023
-6.9
-0.5
-4.7
November
48,753
28,366
77,119
-1.2
2.5
0.1

Trend

2002September
45,397
24,569
69,966
0.5
0.4
0.5
October
45,653
24,629
70,282
0.6
0.2
0.5
November
45,960
24,710
70,670
0.7
0.3
0.6
December
46,345
24,837
71,182
0.8
0.5
0.7
2003January
46,851
25,046
71,897
1.1
0.8
1.0
February
47,472
25,382
72,854
1.3
1.3
1.3
March
48,145
25,825
73,970
1.4
1.7
1.5
April
48,856
26,291
75,147
1.5
1.8
1.6
May
49,646
26,740
76,386
1.6
1.7
1.6
June
50,378
27,148
77,526
1.5
1.5
1.5
July
50,933
27,510
78,443
1.1
1.3
1.2
August
51,243
27,786
79,029
0.6
1.0
0.7
September
51,336
28,012
79,348
0.2
0.8
0.4
October
51,246
28,209
79,455
-0.2
0.7
0.1
November
50,987
28,345
79,332
-0.5
0.5
-0.2






Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration

NSW (No.)
Vic. (No.)
Qld (No.)
SA (No.)
WA (No.)
Tas. (No.)
NT (No.)
ACT (No.)
Aust. (No.)

Original

2002September
22,236
18,765
12,497
4,187
5,493
1,239
507
1,110
66,034
October
24,618
20,185
13,456
4,499
6,627
1,203
580
1,164
72,332
November
24,349
19,829
13,224
4,641
6,320
1,398
628
1,186
71,575
December
21,741
19,706
12,672
4,531
5,989
1,584
585
1,165
67,973
2003January
20,648
16,490
11,632
3,988
5,762
1,025
534
1,091
61,170
February
21,965
18,152
12,956
4,754
6,164
1,069
582
1,093
66,735
March
25,541
20,408
14,843
5,147
6,917
1,218
769
1,270
76,113
April
23,588
18,368
13,386
4,507
5,948
1,177
728
1,163
68,865
May
26,259
21,053
14,967
5,273
7,127
1,454
789
1,340
78,262
June
31,168
24,132
18,084
6,089
8,662
1,549
866
1,508
92,058
July
26,983
21,248
15,716
5,298
6,973
1,407
635
1,261
79,521
August
25,391
19,799
15,248
5,263
7,048
1,589
555
1,280
76,173
September
25,738
21,200
15,293
5,222
6,894
1,639
593
1,212
77,791
October
25,533
21,337
15,521
5,430
7,487
2,008
607
1,302
79,225
November
25,099
20,254
15,058
5,214
6,925
1,717
630
1,215
76,112

Seasonally Adjusted

2002September
23,873
19,451
13,712
4,497
6,051
1,299
590
1,234
70,707
October
23,765
18,951
13,579
4,459
6,406
1,223
606
1,132
70,121
November
23,821
19,381
13,175
4,535
6,321
1,282
623
1,171
70,309
December
20,805
18,235
11,898
4,247
5,616
1,089
626
1,125
63,641
2003January
24,955
19,903
13,902
4,909
6,721
1,299
661
1,259
73,609
February
23,993
19,519
13,687
5,010
6,446
1,275
669
1,169
71,768
March
24,526
20,097
14,467
4,992
6,572
1,315
695
1,229
73,893
April
25,537
20,151
14,470
5,048
6,391
1,381
693
1,257
74,928
May
25,707
20,888
14,804
5,099
7,045
1,420
678
1,288
76,929
June
26,049
21,140
14,738
5,111
7,305
1,484
665
1,308
77,800
July
25,736
20,834
15,482
5,191
7,157
1,495
644
1,243
77,782
August
26,502
20,534
15,861
5,367
7,206
1,574
605
1,270
78,919
September
27,349
21,236
15,840
5,445
7,348
1,635
680
1,301
80,834
October
24,676
20,104
15,775
5,331
7,263
1,977
631
1,266
77,023
November
24,861
20,473
15,775
5,314
7,144
1,671
642
1,239
77,119

Trend

2002September
23,843
19,037
13,437
4,442
6,163
1,261
606
1,177
69,966
October
23,898
19,173
13,454
4,472
6,243
1,257
609
1,176
70,282
November
23,987
19,295
13,465
4,541
6,326
1,257
620
1,179
70,670
December
24,116
19,419
13,528
4,646
6,390
1,262
637
1,184
71,182
2003January
24,309
19,577
13,670
4,769
6,444
1,274
656
1,198
71,897
February
24,569
19,809
13,898
4,888
6,508
1,296
672
1,214
72,854
March
24,864
20,092
14,178
4,985
6,607
1,329
681
1,234
73,970
April
25,188
20,373
14,484
5,060
6,742
1,364
682
1,254
75,147
May
25,581
20,624
14,795
5,120
6,908
1,409
677
1,272
76,386
June
25,972
20,811
15,085
5,174
7,061
1,468
667
1,288
77,526
July
26,271
20,913
15,350
5,233
7,182
1,537
659
1,298
78,443
August
26,412
20,942
15,570
5,294
7,248
1,610
652
1,301
79,029
September
26,430
20,933
15,745
5,340
7,273
1,681
647
1,299
79,348
October
26,347
20,906
15,874
5,371
7,278
1,742
644
1,293
79,455
November
26,202
20,837
15,947
5,388
7,242
1,790
642
1,284
79,332


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