MARCH KEY FIGURES
| | Mar Qtr 04 | Dec Qtr 03 to Mar Qtr 04 | Mar Qtr 03 to Mar Qtr 04 | |
| | $m | % change | % change | |
| |
Trend estimates(a) | | | | |
| Total new capital expenditure | 14,044 | 0.3 | 6.0 | |
| Buildings & structures | 3,451 | -0.3 | 5.8 | |
| Equipment, plant & machinery | 10,588 | 0.4 | 5.9 | |
Seasonally adjusted(a) | | | | |
| Total new capital expenditure | 13,828 | -2.5 | 3.9 | |
| Buildings & structures | 3,419 | -1.2 | 6.0 | |
| Equipment, plant & machinery | 10,409 | -2.9 | 3.3 | |
| |
(a) In volume terms. |
New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms
| |
MARCH KEY POINTS
ACTUAL EXPENDITURE
- In March quarter 2004, trend estimates (in volume terms) for total capital expenditure grew by 0.3%, with a fall of 2.5% in seasonally adjusted terms.
- The growth rate in the trend estimate has slowed over the past six quarters.
- Growth rates for both buildings and structures (which fell by 0.3% this quarter) and equipment, plant and machinery (which rose by 0.4%) have been slowing over this period. Falls in Manufacturing and weaker growth in Mining are mainly responsible.
EXPECTED EXPENDITURE
- This issue includes the sixth estimate for 2003-04 and the second estimate for 2004-05.
- Estimate 6 for 2003-04 is $50,746m. This estimate is 1.9% lower than the comparable estimate for 2002-03 and relatively unchanged from Estimate 5.
- Estimate 2 for 2004-05 is $45,089m, which is 1.7% lower than the comparable estimate for 2003-04 and 8.2% higher than estimate 1 for 2004-05.
- See pages 5 and 6 for further commentary on expectations data.
NOTES
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
As discussed in Paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes, estimates which are subject to relatively high sampling error are annotated with either "^", "*" or "**".
INQUIRIES
For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Didier Rivet on Sydney 02 9268 4357.
SUMMARY COMMENTARY
QUARTERLY TREND ESTIMATES OF CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES
BY ASSET
The trend estimate for buildings and structures fell by 0.3% in the March quarter 2004 following eight consecutive quarters of growth. The rate of growth has decreased significantly in recent quarters. Expenditure by Mining continued to grow but at a slower rate than the previous six quarters, while expenditure by both Manufacturing and Other selected industries fell. The trend estimate for expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery increased slightly this quarter but the rate of growth has slowed over the past six quarters. Mining fell slightly following several quarters of growth and Manufacturing fell for the third consecutive quarter. Other selected industries continued the steady growth of recent quarters.
BY INDUSTRY
Trend estimates for expenditure by Mining remained relatively unchanged in the March quarter 2004 following several quarters of steady growth. Equipment, plant and machinery fell for the first time since June 2000. The trend estimate for expenditure by Manufacturing fell by 4%, the third consecutive quarter of falls. Expenditure on both equipment, plant and machinery and buildings and structures has fallen over this period. The trend estimate for Other selected industries increased by 2%, the eleventh consecutive quarter of increases between 1% and 5%. Expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery increased, while building expenditure fell slightly.
ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES
The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 24 to 27 of the Explanatory Notes.
The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:
TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
Estimate 6 for 2003-04 is 2% lower than the comparable estimate for 2002-03 and relatively unchanged from estimate 5 for 2003-04. Other Services (up 6%) and Transport and storage (up 17%) had significant increases from the previous year, but these were partially offset by a fall in Mining (down 12%).
The second estimate for 2004-05 is slightly lower than the comparable estimate for 2003-04 and 8% higher than the first estimate for 2004-05. The increase from estimate 1 is spread across most industries with Transport and storage (up 14%), Other Services (up 12%) and Retail (up 11%) increasing significantly, whilst Wholesale decreased slightly.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES
Estimate 6 for 2003-04 is 10% higher than estimate 6 for 2002-03 and 4% lower than the previous estimate for 2003-04. The increase from 2002-03 was strongly influenced by Mining (up 17%) and Other Services (up 26%).
The second estimate for 2004-05 is 7% higher than estimate 2 for 2003-04, and 11% higher than estimate 1 for 2004-05. Expectations for Other Services (up 26%) and Manufacturing (up 23%) increased strongly compared to estimate 1 for 2004-05.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY
Estimate 6 for 2003-04 fell by 6% on the comparable estimate for 2002-03 and increased slightly from estimate 5 for 2003-04. Other Services (down 22%), Transport and storage (down 17%) and Wholesale (down 13%) contributed to the decrease over the previous year, whilst Mining increased (up 9%).
The second estimate for 2004-05 is 6% lower than the comparable estimate for 2003-04, and 7% higher than estimate 1 for 2004-05. Strong growth in Transport and storage (up 20%) contributed to the increase from estimate 1, while Retail also increased significantly (up 12%). Most other industries experienced slight increases.
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