4530.0 - Crime Victimisation, Australia, 2014-15 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 21/12/2016   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product

CHANGE IN CRIME VICTIMISATION RATES OVER TIME

INTRODUCTION

This section provides an analysis of changes in crime victimisation rates over the period 2008-09 to 2014-15 for selected personal and household crime types in each state and territory.

Personal crimes include:

    • Physical assault
    • Face-to-face threatened assault
    • Non-face-to-face threatened assault

Household crimes include:
    • Break-in
    • Attempted break-in
    • Motor vehicle theft
    • Theft from a motor vehicle
    • Malicious property damage
    • Other theft

Year on year comparisons of crime victimisation rates, alone, often show little, if any, change and this type of comparison does not reveal patterns unfolding over a longer time period. To provide an overview of the general pattern in victimisation rates over time, functions were fitted to the data to give a better indication of changes over a longer time period.

The fitted functions in this analysis do not take into account the survey error associated with sampled estimates, so other criteria were used in deciding when it was appropriate to apply this technique (see Technical Note).

Where functions were fitted, the analysis found declining victimisation rates between 2008-09 and 2014-15 (as illustrated by the downward slope over time). In some cases, the fitted function appeared to increase for the most recent time periods, however, further data points are required to determine whether this apparent change is sustained. Where there was no fitted function, any apparent patterns in victimisation rates over time should be interpreted with caution.

To assist in making comparisons, data series that did not meet the inclusion criteria for fitted function analysis have also been included in the line graphs, provided that the estimates were not prone to high survey error (see Technical Note).


NEW SOUTH WALES

How have personal crime victimisation rates changed over time?

The fitted function analysis showed a decline in the victimisation rate for physical assault since 2008-09. No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for face-to-face threatened assault or non face-to-face threatened assault.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Personal Crimes, New South Wales, 2008-09 to 2014-15 (a)(b)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in New South Wales for physical assault, face-to-face threatened assault and non face-to-face threatened assault and fitted function for physical assault
Footnote(s): (a) The fitted functions used to analyse patterns of change in victimisation rates over time have not taken into account the survey error associated with the annual victimisation rates. This is expected to have limited impact on the analysis, as only survey estimates with RSEs of 15% or less were included in the analysis. For further information on survey error refer to the Technical Note.
(b) Fitted function is: physical assault is a polynomial function with equation y = -0.0452x2 + 0.1833x + 2.5286 R2 = 0.8607

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED PERSONAL CRIMES, New South Wales, 2008-09 to 2014-15


How have household crime victimisation rates changed over time?

The fitted function analysis showed a decline in the victimisation rates for attempted break-in, theft from a motor vehicle, malicious property damage and other theft since 2008-09. No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for break-in or motor vehicle theft.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Household Crimes, New South Wales, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)(b)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in New South Wales for all household crimes and fitted functions for attempted break-in, theft from a motor vehicle, malicious property damage and other theft
Footnote(s): (a) The fitted functions used to analyse patterns of change in victimisation rates over time have not taken into account the survey error associated with the annual victimisation rates. This is expected to have limited impact on the analysis, as only survey estimates with RSEs of 15% or less were included in the analysis. For further information on survey error refer to the Technical Note.
(b) Fitted functions are: attempted break-in is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.0726x2 - 0.7917x + 3.7 R2 = 0.8653; theft from a motor vehicle is an exponential function with equation y = 4.0861e-0.095x R2 = 0.8503; malicious property damage is an exponential function with equation y = 11.829e-0.131x R2 = 0.9778; other theft is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.081x2 - 0.8333x + 4.6429 R2 = 0.9392

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED HOUSEHOLD CRIMES, New South Wales, 2008-09 to 2014-15



VICTORIA

How have personal crime victimisation rates changed over time?

The fitted function analysis showed a decline in the victimisation rate for face-to-face threatened assault since 2008-09. No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for physical assault or non face-to-face threatened assault.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Personal Crimes, Victoria, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)(b)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in Victoria for physical assault, face-to-face threatened assault and non face-to-face threatened assault and fitted function for face-to-face threatened assault
Footnote(s): (a) The fitted functions used to analyse patterns of change in victimisation rates over time have not taken into account the survey error associated with the annual victimisation rates. This is expected to have limited impact on the analysis, as only survey estimates with RSEs of 15% or less were included in the analysis. For further information on survey error refer to the Technical Note.
(b) Fitted function is: face-to-face threatened assault is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.0524x2 – 0.6262x + 4.4857 R2 = 0.8256

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED PERSONAL CRIMES, Victoria, 2008-09 to 2014-15


How have household crime victimisation rates changed over time?

The fitted function analysis showed a decline in the victimisation rates for attempted break-in, theft from a motor vehicle and malicious property damage since 2008-09. The victimisation rate for break-in has been fairly stable since 2008-09. No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for motor vehicle theft or other theft.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Household Crimes, Victoria, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)(b)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in Victoria for all household crimes and fitted functions for break-in, attempted break-in, theft from a motor vehicle and malicious property damage
Footnote(s): (a) The fitted functions used to analyse patterns of change in victimisation rates over time have not taken into account the survey error associated with the annual victimisation rates. This is expected to have limited impact on the analysis, as only survey estimates with RSEs of 15% or less were included in the analysis. For further information on survey error refer to the Technical Note.
(b) Fitted functions are: break-in is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.0417x2 - 0.3726x + 3.0714 R2 = 0.9064; attempted break-in is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.0536x2 - 0.5893x + 3.1714 R2 = 0.9754; theft from a motor vehicle is a power function with equation y = 4.8908x-0.23 R2 = 0.8632; malicious property damage is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.1298x2 - 1.7917x + 12.414 R2 = 0.9953

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED HOUSEHOLD CRIMES, Victoria, 2008-09 to 2014-15



QUEENSLAND

How have personal crime victimisation rates changed over time?

No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for physical assault, face-to-face threatened assault or non face-to-face threatened assault.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Personal Crimes, Queensland, 2008-09 to 2014-15
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in Queensland for physical assault, face-to-face threatened assault and non face-to-face threatened assault
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED PERSONAL CRIMES, Queensland, 2008-09 to 2014-15


How have household crime victimisation rates changed over time?

The fitted function analysis showed a decline in the victimisation rates for theft from a motor vehicle and malicious property damage since 2008-09. No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for break-in, attempted break-in or other theft.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Household Crimes, Queensland, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)(b)(c)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in Queensland for all household crimes (except motor vehicle theft) and fitted functions for theft from a motor vehicle and malicious property damage
Footnote(s): (a) The fitted functions used to analyse patterns of change in victimisation rates over time have not taken into account the survey error associated with the annual victimisation rates. This is expected to have limited impact on the analysis, as only survey estimates with RSEs of 15% or less were included in the analysis. For further information on survey error refer to the Technical Note.
(b) Fitted functions are: theft from a motor vehicle is a polynomial function with equation y = -0.0083x2 - 0.1726x + 3.5429 R2 = 0.8704; malicious property damage is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.1238x2 - 1.8548x + 11.057 R2 = 0.9692
(c) Data for motor vehicle theft are not shown, as estimates for the number of households experiencing motor vehicle theft in the 12 months prior to interview are subject to high sampling error (for further details refer to the Technical Note).

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED HOUSEHOLD CRIMES, Queensland, 2008-09 to 2014-15



SOUTH AUSTRALIA

How have personal crime victimisation rates changed over time?

No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for physical assault or face-to-face threatened assault.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Personal Crimes, South Australia, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in South Australia for physical assault and face-to-face threatened assault
Footnote(s): (a) Data for non face-to-face threatened assault are not shown, as estimates for the number of persons experiencing non face-to-face threatened assault in the 12 months prior to interview are subject to high sampling error (for further details refer to the Technical Note).

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED PERSONAL CRIMES, South Australia, 2008-09 to 2014-15


How have household crime victimisation rates changed over time?

The fitted function analysis showed a decline in the victimisation rates for break-in, theft from a motor vehicle, malicious property damage and other theft since 2008-09. No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for attempted break-in or motor vehicle theft.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Household Crimes, South Australia, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)(b)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in South Australia for all household crimes and fitted functions for break-in,  theft from a motor vehicle, malicious property damage and other theft
Footnote(s): (a) The fitted functions used to analyse patterns of change in victimisation rates over time have not taken into account the survey error associated with the annual victimisation rates. This is expected to have limited impact on the analysis, as only survey estimates with RSEs of 15% or less were included in the analysis. For further information on survey error refer to the Technical Note.
(b) Fitted functions are: break-in is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.0619x2 - 0.6524x + 3.9429 R2 = 0.9094; theft from a motor vehicle is a power function with equation y = 4.2067x-0.211 R2 = 0.9302; malicious property damage is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.0857x2 - 1.7357x + 13.557 R2 = 0.9637; other theft is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.1381x2 - 1.3262x + 5.7714 R2 = 0.8009

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED HOUSEHOLD CRIMES, South Australia, 2008-09 to 2014-15



WESTERN AUSTRALIA

How have personal crime victimisation rates changed over time?

The fitted function analysis showed a decline in the victimisation rate for physical assault since 2008-09. No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for face-to-face threatened assault or non face-to-face threatened assault.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Personal Crimes, Western Australia, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)(b)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in Western Australia for physical assault, face-to-face threatened assault and non face-to-face threatened assault and fitted function for physical assault
Footnote(s): (a) The fitted functions used to analyse patterns of change in victimisation rates over time have not taken into account the survey error associated with the annual victimisation rates. This is expected to have limited impact on the analysis, as only survey estimates with RSEs of 15% or less were included in the analysis. For further information on survey error refer to the Technical Note.
(b) Fitted function is: physical assault is a polynomial function with equation y = -0.0226x2 - 0.0155x + 3.8571 R2 = 0.866

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED PERSONAL CRIMES, Western Australia, 2008-09 to 2014-15


How have household crime victimisation rates changed over time?

The fitted function analysis showed a decline in the victimisation rates for malicious property damage, attempted break-in and other theft since 2008-09. No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for break-in, motor vehicle theft or theft from a motor vehicle.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Household Crimes, Western Australia, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)(b)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in Western Australia for all household crimes and fitted functions for attempted break-in, malicious property damage and other theft
Footnote(s): (a) The fitted functions used to analyse patterns of change in victimisation rates over time have not taken into account the survey error associated with the annual victimisation rates. This is expected to have limited impact on the analysis, as only survey estimates with RSEs of 15% or less were included in the analysis. For further information on survey error refer to the Technical Note.
(b) Fitted functions are: attempted break-in is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.094x2 - 0.9202x + 5.5143 R2 = 0.9181; malicious property damage is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.2119x2 - 2.5667x + 16.814 R2 = 0.9845; other theft is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.0798x2 - 0.9345x + 6.0714 R2 = 0.8928

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED HOUSEHOLD CRIMES, Western Australia, 2008-09 to 2014-15



TASMANIA

How have personal crime victimisation rates changed over time?

No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for physical assault or face-to-face threatened assault.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Personal Crimes, Tasmania, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in Tasmania for physical assault and face-to-face threatened assault
Footnote(s): (a) Data for non face-to-face threatened assault are not shown, as estimates for the number of persons experiencing non face-to-face threatened assault in the 12 months prior to interview are subject to high sampling error (for further details refer to the Technical Note).

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED PERSONAL CRIMES, Tasmania, 2008-09 to 2014-15


How have household crime victimisation rates changed over time?

The fitted function analysis showed a decline in the victimisation rate for malicious property damage since 2008-09. No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for break-in, attempted break-in, theft from a motor vehicle or other theft.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Household Crimes, Tasmania, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)(b)(c)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in Tasmania for all household crimes (except motor vehicle theft) and fitted function for malicious property damage
Footnote(s): (a) The fitted functions used to analyse patterns of change in victimisation rates over time have not taken into account the survey error associated with the annual victimisation rates. This is expected to have limited impact on the analysis, as only survey estimates with RSEs of 15% or less were included in the analysis. For further information on survey error refer to the Technical Note.
(b) Fitted function is: malicious property damage is a polynomial function with equation y = 0.0964x2 - 1.5464x + 12.6 R2 = 0.8765
(c) Data for motor vehicle theft are not shown, as estimates for the number of households experiencing motor vehicle theft in the 12 months prior to interview are subject to high sampling error (for further details refer to the Technical Note).

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED HOUSEHOLD CRIMES, Tasmania, 2008-09 to 2014-15



NORTHERN TERRITORY

How have personal crime victimisation rates changed over time?

No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for physical assault or face-to-face threatened assault.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Personal Crimes, Northern Territory, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in the Northern Territory for physical assault and face-to-face threatened assault
Footnote(s): (a) Data for non face-to-face threatened assault are not shown, as estimates for the number of persons experiencing non face-to-face threatened assault in the 12 months prior to interview are subject to high sampling error (for further details refer to the Technical Note).

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED PERSONAL CRIMES, Northern Territory, 2008-09 to 2014-15


How have household crime victimisation rates changed over time?

The fitted function analysis showed a decline in the victimisation rate for malicious property damage since 2008-09. No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for break-in, attempted break-in, theft from a motor vehicle or other theft.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Household Crimes, Northern Territory, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)(b)(c)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in the Northern Territory for all household crimes (except motor vehicle theft) and fitted function for malicious property damage
Footnote(s): (a) The fitted functions used to analyse patterns of change in victimisation rates over time have not taken into account the survey error associated with the annual victimisation rates. This is expected to have limited impact on the analysis, as only survey estimates with RSEs of 15% or less were included in the analysis. For further information on survey error refer to the Technical Note.
(b) Fitted function is: malicious property damage is an exponential function with equation y = 21.534e-0.164x R2 = 0.9107
(c) Data for motor vehicle theft are not shown, as estimates for the number of households experiencing motor vehicle theft in the 12 months prior to interview are subject to high sampling error (for further details refer to the Technical Note).

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED HOUSEHOLD CRIMES, Northern Territory, 2008-09 to 2014-15



AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY

How have personal crime victimisation rates changed over time?

No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for physical assault.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Personal Crimes, Australia Capital Territory, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in the Australian CapitalTerritory for physical assaullt
Footnote(s): (a) Data for face-to-face threatened assault and non face-to-face threatened assault are not shown, as estimates for the number of persons experiencing face to face threatened assault and non face-to-face threatened assault in the 12 months prior to interview are subject to high sampling error (for further details refer to the Technical Note).

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED PERSONAL CRIMES, Australia Capital Territory, 2008-09 to 2014-15


How have household crime victimisation rates changed over time?

No fitted functions that met the inclusion criteria were identified for break-in, theft from a motor vehicle, malicious property damage or other theft. Although no fitted function met the requirements for inclusion in this analysis, there appears to be a decrease in the victimisation rate for malicious property damage since 2008-09.

Victimisation Rates for Selected Household Crimes, Australia Capital Territory, 2008-09 to 2014-15(a)
Graph: shows data points for victimisation rates in the Australian Capital Territory for break-in, theft from a motor vehicle, malicious property damage and other theft
Footnote(s): (a) Data for motor vehicle theft and attempted break-in are not shown, as estimates for the number of households experiencing motor vehicle theft and attempted break-in during the 12 months prior to interview are subject to high sampling error (for further details refer to the Technical Note).

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commonwealth of Australia 2016.

Source(s): VICTIMISATION RATES FOR SELECTED HOUSEHOLD CRIMES, Australia Capital Territory, 2008-09 to 2014-15