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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jan 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/03/2005   
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JANUARY KEY FIGURES

Jan '05
Dec 04 to Jan '05
Jan '04 to Jan '05
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
463.3
1.4
8.7
Seasonally adjusted
477.1
4.8
. .
Original
462.4
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend
393.6
1.2
16.3
Seasonally adjusted
383.6
-5.6
. .
Original
342.3
. .
. .

. . not applicable

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



JANUARY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2005 (463,300 movements) increased by 1.4% compared with December 2004. This followed monthly increases of 1.3% for November and 1.4% for December 2004.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 8.7% higher than in January 2004 and 9.0% higher than when the series last troughed in February 2004 (425,000 movements).
  • During January 2005, short-term resident departures (393,600 movements) increased by 1.2% compared with the previous month and followed increases of 1.8% for November and 1.5% for December 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures have recorded continued growth since May 2003. Compared with January 2004 (338,500 movements), short-term resident departures are up by 16.3% and up by 38.0% from when they last troughed in April 2003 (285,200 movements). These increases were affected by a break in the trend series.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2005 (477,100 movements) increased by 4.8% compared with December 2004. Short-term visitor arrivals increased by 3.0% for November and 0.6% for December 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures for January 2005 (383,600 movements) decreased by 5.6% compared with December 2004 and followed increases of 3.3% for November and 5.0% for December 2004.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 462,400 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 342,300 short-term resident departures from Australia during January 2005.


NOTES


EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for February 2005 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 17 March 2005. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 12 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

New standard errors - From this issue a new set of standard errors has been applied to sampled estimates. This is because the sample for short-term movements has been increased as a result of a review, resulting in smaller standard errors. New standard errors are presented in the Standard Errors section of this issue.


Ramadan correction for seasonal and trend time series estimates - A correction has been made to the seasonal time series model for short-term visitor arrivals from Malaysia and Indonesia, which has resulted in revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for these two countries. This has been made after detection of a significant influence on travel from these two countries associated with the end of the Islamic month of Ramadan. Ramadan is the ninth month of the Islamic calendar and starts eleven days earlier each year in the Western calendar, so adjustments for this effect apply to different months over the years. Other time series did not have a significant Ramadan effect and a correction was not applied for these time series. The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for Total South-East Asia have changed as a consequence of the correction to the Malaysia and Indonesia series.



EMERGING ISSUES

December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami - The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami have impacted on overseas arrivals from, and resident departures to, affected countries but quantifying the size of this impact in January 2005 overseas arrivals and departures estimates is not yet possible. This impact may affect the reliability of recent ABS trend estimates. The ABS will continue to monitor and report on this situation.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in January 2005 have increased by 8.7% when compared with January 2004. Monthly increases have been recorded since March 2004 with visitor arrivals increasing from 425,100 movements in March to 463,300 movements in January 2005.


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with December 2004 and January 2004.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - January 2005

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 04 to Jan 05
Jan 04 to Jan 05
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

United Kingdom
57.6
60.8
70.8
1.4
1.9
New Zealand
88.8
89.7
63.8
0.2
12.6
Japan
64.4
66.5
63.7
0.5
5.7
China
28.7
(a)np
37.9
6.6
41.9
United States of America
36.3
37.6
36.6
0.7
2.7
Korea
19.3
20.4
33.3
1.7
11.9
Canada
8.7
9.1
12.6
2.3
14.8
Singapore
23.6
24.4
12.4
2.4
10.6
Germany
12.0
11.8
12.3
-0.2
3.7
Hong Kong
12.9
13.1
9.7
1.9
15.0

(a) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures have increased by 16.3% between January 2004 and January 2005 and have recorded consecutive monthly increases during the period.


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates), for short-term resident departures during January 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with December 2004 and January 2004.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - January 2005

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 04 to Jan 05
Jan 04 to Jan 05
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
71.4
72.8
71.3
0.9
12.1
United States of America
33.3
33.6
32.0
1.8
17.9
Indonesia
31.2
31.1
25.8
4.4
6.5
United Kingdom
30.6
28.1
18.1
-0.6
2.3
China
17.8
18.6
17.6
1.8
40.6
Singapore
16.3
15.4
15.7
3.1
33.4
Fiji
16.9
16.3
15.0
1.7
28.4
Hong Kong
15.0
14.6
14.1
2.3
28.1
Viet Nam
9.2
8.3
13.3
-2.7
25.6
Malaysia
13.7
12.2
12.7
1.8
17.5



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA

Short-term visitor arrivals

According to trend estimates, the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Singapore represented 5% of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in January 2005. The trend estimate for arrivals from Singapore peaked in July 2001 and, while fluctuating, declined until August 2004. Recent trend estimates show that movements of short-term visitors from Singapore have been increasing and are currently 11% higher than in January 2004.

SINGAPORE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: SINGAPORE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, 31% of the visitors from Singapore in January 2005 stated holiday as the main reason for journey, compared with 50% of all short-term visitor arrivals. The median age of visitors from Singapore was 35 years (37 years for all visitors) and the median duration of stay was 10 days (10 days for all visitors).


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates show that the number of residents departing Australia short-term for Singapore represented 4% of all short-term resident departures in January 2005. Since April 2004 the trend has been upwards. Movements from January 2004 to January 2005 increased by 33%.

SINGAPORE, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: SINGAPORE, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, 43% of Australian residents departing to Singapore stated holiday as the main reason for journey, compared with 45% of all short-term residents departing Australia. The median age of residents departing to Singapore was 42 years (38 years for all residents) and the median duration of stay was 10 days (15 days for all residents).



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,890 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during January 2005, an increase of 12.9% when compared with January 2004 (9,650 movements). Settlers born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion (19%) followed by the United Kingdom (17%) and India and China (each 7%).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term arrivals data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term arrivals in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).


There were 7,720 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during January 2005, a decrease of 2.5% when compared with January 2004 (7,910 movements).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected Source Countries

The graphs presented below illustrate the impact of the Rugby World Cup on arrivals from the United Kingdom in the latter half of 2003, and the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on arrivals from Japan earlier in 2003.

United Kingdom
Graph: United Kingdom
Japan
Graph: Japan




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect that the terrorist attacks in that country on 11 September 2001 had on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that departures of Australian residents have been trending upwards since May 2003.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand


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