Australian Bureau of Statistics
3228.0.55.001 - Population Estimates: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2009
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/06/2009
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CALCULATING FINAL ERP
8.16 Estimates of the Indigenous (and non-Indigenous) population were then adjusted to include RTOs and backdated to 30 June 2006 using data on births, deaths, overseas and interstate migration. However, for the Other Territories (which are not included in the PES), a combined net undercount estimate for New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory was applied to the Census count of Indigenous people identified as being usually resident in those territories. This estimate is used as the majority of Indigenous people in the Other Territories reside in Jervis Bay Territory.
Sub-state/territory Indigenous estimates
8.17 The PES is the best available data source for determining what the Indigenous population should have been on Census Night, if the whole population was counted. However, as standard errors on the PES are too high for producing reliable estimates of the Indigenous population at sub-state/territory levels, Census is the only data source for calculating estimates of the Indigenous population for geographic areas smaller than a state or territory.
8.18 In producing estimates of the Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations of SLAs, PES estimates produced by the Empirical Bayes method for each state/territory were used as upper level constraints on the SLA-level Indigenous populations as at Census Night. State/territory net undercount was distributed pro rata to individual SLAs, having regard to capital city/balance of state/territory undercount for the total population according to their demographic characteristics such as age and sex.
8.19 At the sub-state/territory level, differences between Census counts and estimates of the Indigenous population are not indicative of, nor should be interpreted as, the true level of undercount; rather, these differences are a by-product of the assumptions that contribute to the estimation process.
This page last updated 11 June 2009
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