Australian Bureau of Statistics
3228.0.55.001 - Population Estimates: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2009
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/06/2009
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PRELIMINARY NOM ESTIMATES
6.49 Each traveller is then given an additive migration adjustment (MA) value which represents the difference between their initial contribution to NOM (+1, -1 or 0 as above) and their expected contribution to NOM if actual duration of stay could be determined. The MA value is derived during final estimation for the corresponding quarter two years previously, with an average MA value derived for each group of travellers. The group of travellers is defined by the cross-classification of category of travel by age by citizenship by state/territory. The average MA value is calculated within each group of travellers by summing their MA values and dividing by the number of travellers within the group. See Step 8 (in final estimates steps) for a definition of MA value. Each traveller in the current reference quarter (at preliminary estimation) receives the average MA value from its corresponding group of travellers two years previously. Preliminary NOM estimates for the reference quarter are then obtained by adding each traveller's MA value to their initial contribution to NOM, and aggregating to the desired level (such as state/territory).
6.50 In forming the cross-classified groups of travellers for which the average MA values are derived at final estimation (for later use in preliminary estimates), the following categories are used:
6.51 At present the preliminary estimation method does not provide assumptions of changes from State 1 to State 2. The method used for estimating preliminary NOM will be reviewed when a longer time series of estimates become available.
This page last updated 11 June 2009
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