1346.0.55.003 - Interpreting Time Series: Are you being misled by the Seasons, 2012

EXAMPLE OF A SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

STEP ONE:

Start with the original series of data regularly recorded each month or quarter

1. Original Series, Short-term visitor arrivals – Japan

STEP TWO:

Estimate seasonal pattern

2. Seasonal Factors, Short-term visitor arrivals – Japan

STEP THREE:

Remove estimated seasonal pattern to produce seasonally adjusted estimates

3. Seasonally Adjusted Series, Short-term visitor arrivals – Japan

STEP FOUR:

Smooth noise from seasonally adjusted estimates to produce trend estimates

4. Trend Series, Short-term visitor arrivals – Japan

STEP FIVE:

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are produced

5. Trend and Seasonally Adjusted Series, Short-term visitor arrivals – Japan

Note: The difference between seasonally adjusted estimates and the trend estimates is the residual noise and irregular series. In the above example, the irregular includes the effects of major short-term events: the September 2001 terrorist attacks in the USA, and the SARS epidemic in 2003.

This page last updated 10 December 2012

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Introduction and Contents Why seasonally adjust Which indicator should I use Revisions to time series estimates Example of a seasonal adjustment Further questions About this Release	EXAMPLE OF A SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT STEP ONE: Start with the original series of data regularly recorded each month or quarter 1. Original Series, Short-term visitor arrivals – Japan STEP TWO: Estimate seasonal pattern 2. Seasonal Factors, Short-term visitor arrivals – Japan STEP THREE: Remove estimated seasonal pattern to produce seasonally adjusted estimates 3. Seasonally Adjusted Series, Short-term visitor arrivals – Japan STEP FOUR: Smooth noise from seasonally adjusted estimates to produce trend estimates 4. Trend Series, Short-term visitor arrivals – Japan STEP FIVE: Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are produced 5. Trend and Seasonally Adjusted Series, Short-term visitor arrivals – Japan Note: The difference between seasonally adjusted estimates and the trend estimates is the residual noise and irregular series. In the above example, the irregular includes the effects of major short-term events: the September 2001 terrorist attacks in the USA, and the SARS epidemic in 2003. Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window. This page last updated 10 December 2012

Australian Bureau of StatisticsCelebrating the International Year of Statistics 2013

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Celebrating the International Year of Statistics 2013