The ABS' Analysis Branch in Canberra is currently conducting two projects which model the 1998 National Crime and Safety Survey.
Small Area Estimates of Crime
This project is an attempt to derive estimates of crime victimisation at a geographic area smaller than the 1998 National Crime and Safety Survey will allow, using small area estimation techniques that have been proven effective in other areas. The estimates will only be released publicly if the ABS has confidence in the estimates. This confidence will come not only through statistical tests of the models, but also through reality checks provided by police and criminology experts.
Propensity to Report Crime
For this project, the Analysis Branch is working with the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) on the proposal for a logistic regression model to estimate the propensity of different groups of people to report criminal incidents to the police. This method has been used in similar studies overseas and in Australia. The output from this project will be a model showing which victim/incident characteristics are associated with higher or lower reporting.
The planned completion date for both of these projects is late 2001. Analysis Branch is also currently collaborating with the AIC on a project studying repeat and multiple victimisation.