| Apr-22 ($m) | May-22 ($m) | Jun-22 ($m) | May-22 to Jun-22 ($m) | May-22 to Jun-22 (%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance on goods and services | 12,297 | 15,016 | 17,670 | 2,654 | na | |
| Credits (Exports of goods & services) | 53,775 | 58,549 | 61,527 | 2,978 | 5.1 | |
| Debits (Imports of goods & services) | -41,478 | -43,533 | -43,857 | 324 | 0.7 | |
na not applicable
COVID-19
Suspension of trend estimates
The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in international trade activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent changes to regular patterns in international trade resulting from it. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this unusual event they would provide a misleading view of underlying international trade activity.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in international trade activity can be accurately estimated. The trend series has therefore been suspended from March 2019 and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges.
Seasonal adjustment and COVID-19
International Accounts uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time new data becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual events such as COVID-19 can distort estimates calculated using this method. From March 2020, seasonal factors for series that have been notably impacted by COVID-19 will be calculated using data up to and including February 2020, then projected from March 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.
The ABS has advised users that it moved to using forward factors for seasonal analysis of a number of series, including Travel Services. Current ABS (and international) practice requires at least three years of data to assess whether a change in seasonal pattern has occurred. Should COVID-19 result in a long-term change to the seasonal pattern then revisions to these series may occur in the future. The ABS will consult with users on any future methods changes to seasonal adjustment and potential revisions. The Feature Article International travel services time series outlines the matter in greater detail.
Quality of international trade in services statistics
Monthly International Trade in Services statistics (ITS) are compiled using multiple data sources. These data, compared with the publication reference period, are lagged. The lag in data results in most ITS estimates being nowcast when initially published. In recent times, these estimates have been more volatile, due in part to COVID-19 but also due to services data availability. While the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) make every effort to ensure estimates of monthly ITS are reflective and robust, in the current environment, the ABS recommends monthly services estimates be interpreted and used with caution. The International Trade in Services; Concepts, Source and Methods outlines this in further detail.
Changes in this issue
Revisions to Travel Services debits
This issue incorporates revisions to the Travel Services debits series following a review of the annual benchmark used to calculate this series.
From the August 2021 reference month a new benchmarking method was implemented to calculate Travel Services debits. Please see article "Australian System of National Accounts historical revisions" for more details. The ABS has reviewed the benchmark in light of restrictions on international travel easing late last year, resulting in upward revisions to Travel Services debits back to November 2021. The revised estimates more accurately reflect the increasing value of travel debits as the pattern of Australian residents travelling overseas returns towards pre-pandemic levels.
These revisions will be incorporated in the June quarter 2022 releases of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, and Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product to be released in early September.
Balance on goods and services
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $17,670m in June 2022, an increase of $2,654m on the surplus in May 2022.
| Apr-22 ($m) | May-22 ($m) | Jun-22 ($m) | May-22 to Jun-22 ($m) | May-22 to Jun-22 (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance on goods and services | 12,297 | 15,016 | 17,670 | 2,654 | na | ||
| Total goods and services credits | 53,775 | 58,549 | 61,527 | 2,978 | 5.1 | ||
| Total goods credits | 48,332 | 52,824 | 55,612 | 2,788 | 5.3 | ||
| Total services credits | 5,443 | 5,725 | 5,915 | 190 | 3.3 | ||
| Total goods and services debits | -41,478 | -43,533 | -43,857 | 324 | 0.7 | ||
| Total goods debits | -34,166 | -35,894 | -35,829 | -65 | -0.2 | ||
| Total services debits | -7,312 | -7,639 | -8,028 | 389 | 5.1 | ||
na not applicable
(a) For sign conventions, see the Explanatory notes.