Australia's population to reach 30 million in 11 to 15 years

Released

22/11/2018

Source

Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066

Based on current trends, Australia's population is projected to reach 30 million people between 2029 and 2033, according to the latest figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Population projections are based on assumptions of future levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, which are guided by recent population trends.

Anthony Grubb, Director of Demography at the ABS, said: "The projected time for the nation to grow by 5 million people on current indications will be similar, if not a little shorter, than the 14 years it took to grow from 20 million to 25 million.

"Looking further ahead, based on the medium of our three main projection assumption series, Australia could add a further 10 million to our current 25 million by the year 2043.

"However under our higher range of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions the population would reach 35 million 5 years earlier in 2038. Conversely, under lower assumptions the population would only reach 35 million a decade later in 2053."

Historical and projected population, Australia
	Series A	Series B	Series C	ERP
1996	18,224,767	18,224,767	18,224,767	18,224,767
1997	18,423,037	18,423,037	18,423,037	18,423,037
1998	18,607,584	18,607,584	18,607,584	18,607,584
1999	18,812,264	18,812,264	18,812,264	18,812,264
2000	19,028,802	19,028,802	19,028,802	19,028,802
2001	19,274,701	19,274,701	19,274,701	19,274,701
2002	19,495,210	19,495,210	19,495,210	19,495,210
2003	19,720,737	19,720,737	19,720,737	19,720,737
2004	19,932,722	19,932,722	19,932,722	19,932,722
2005	20,176,844	20,176,844	20,176,844	20,176,844
2006	20,450,966	20,450,966	20,450,966	20,450,966
2007	20,827,622	20,827,622	20,827,622	20,827,622
2008	21,249,199	21,249,199	21,249,199	21,249,199
2009	21,691,653	21,691,653	21,691,653	21,691,653
2010	22,031,750	22,031,750	22,031,750	22,031,750
2011	22,340,024	22,340,024	22,340,024	22,340,024
2012	22,733,465	22,733,465	22,733,465	22,733,465
2013	23,128,129	23,128,129	23,128,129	23,128,129
2014	23,475,686	23,475,686	23,475,686	23,475,686
2015	23,815,995	23,815,995	23,815,995	23,815,995
2016	24,190,907	24,190,907	24,190,907	24,190,907
2017	24,600,777	24,600,777	24,600,777
2018	25,029,253	25,015,825	25,001,966
2019	25,478,136	25,444,104	25,408,521
2020	25,936,500	25,873,480	25,809,095
2021	26,402,046	26,301,274	26,200,811
2022	26,873,947	26,727,025	26,582,009
2023	27,349,900	27,147,199	26,949,969
2024	27,829,520	27,562,195	27,303,910
2025	28,311,405	27,970,435	27,643,086
2026	28,796,151	28,372,315	27,966,732
2027	29,283,507	28,765,734	28,273,607
2028	29,773,492	29,157,085	28,575,391
2029	30,264,147	29,545,877	28,872,946
2030	30,755,046	29,931,725	29,165,889
2031	31,245,852	30,314,335	29,453,938
2032	31,736,375	30,693,262	29,736,678
2033	32,226,409	31,068,410	30,014,050
2034	32,715,890	31,439,821	30,286,143
2035	33,204,848	31,807,641	30,553,159
2036	33,693,412	32,172,123	30,815,407
2037	34,182,203	32,533,632	31,073,310
2038	34,671,331	32,892,495	31,327,250
2039	35,160,908	33,248,991	31,577,558
2040	35,651,025	33,603,376	31,824,534
2041	36,141,847	33,955,939	32,068,498
2042	36,633,428	34,306,863	32,309,646
2043	37,125,971	34,656,377	32,548,204
2044	37,619,613	35,004,632	32,784,296
2045	38,114,559	35,351,791	33,018,032
2046	38,611,020	35,698,016	33,249,486
2047	39,109,288	36,043,472	33,478,711
2048	39,609,722	36,388,374	33,705,787
2049	40,112,650	36,732,899	33,930,739
2050	40,618,436	37,077,210	34,153,575
2051	41,127,485	37,421,528	34,374,365
2052	41,640,167	37,766,007	34,593,127
2053	42,156,755	38,110,846	34,809,946
2054	42,677,496	38,456,120	35,024,815
2055	43,202,553	38,801,884	35,237,742
2056	43,731,893	39,148,145	35,448,725
2057	44,265,558	39,494,845	35,657,744
2058	44,803,407	39,841,888	35,864,777
2059	45,345,286	40,189,171	36,069,828
2060	45,890,971	40,536,481	36,272,819
2061	46,440,182	40,883,602	36,473,692
2062	46,992,564	41,230,317	36,672,396
2063	47,547,713	41,576,362	36,868,831
2064	48,105,281	41,921,500	37,062,917
2065	48,664,837	42,265,557	37,254,622
2066	49,226,089	42,608,269	37,443,819

Historical and projected population, Australia

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Under all assumptions, the population of New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state with a population of between approximately 9 and 9.3 million. Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population; possibly reaching between 7 and 8 million by 2027.

Queensland is projected to continue growing over the projection period, increasing to 6 million people in 2027. Western Australia is projected to increase to 3 million by 2027, while South Australia is projected to have slower growth, increasing to 2 million.

The population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase to between 479,000 and 510,000 people closing the gap on Tasmania's population which is projected to reach between 545,000 and 573,000 people in 2027. The Northern Territory is projected to increase to between 270,000 and 284,000 people in 2027.

Projected population, States and territories, at 30 June

		Series A (a)		Series B (b)		Series C (c)
	2027	2066	2027	2066	2027	2066
	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)
New South Wales	9 285	14 796	9 152	13 088	9 022	11 754
Victoria	7 908	14 525	7 694	12 030	7 497	10 091
Queensland	5 931	10 469	5 789	8 718	5 676	7 507
South Australia	1 866	2 437	1 853	2 214	1 838	2 040
Western Australia	2 935	4 926	2 941	4 760	2 928	4 493
Tasmania	573	744	559	581	545	453
Northern Territory	270	386	277	439	284	490
Australian Capital Territory	510	939	495	775	479	612
Australia (d)	29 284	49 226	28 766	42 608	28 274	37 444

a. Higher assumptions of fertility, life expectancy, overseas and interstate migration flows.
b. Medium assumptions of fertility, life expectancy, overseas and interstate migration flows.
c. Lower assumptions of fertility, overseas and interstate migration flows, and a medium assumption of life expectancy.
d. Includes Other Territories.

Selected population milestones, Australia, Series A, B and C

Population Milestone	Series A (a)	Series B (b)	Series C (c)
30 Million	2028/29	2030/31	2032/33
35 Million	2038/39	2043/44	2053/54
40 Million	2048/49	2058/59	. .
45 Million	2058/59	. .	. .

a. Higher assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and overseas migration flows.
b. Medium assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and overseas migration flows.
c. Lower assumptions of fertility and overseas migration flows, and a medium assumption of life expectancy.

Further information is available in Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) to 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0) available for free download from the ABS website.

Media notes

Population projections are not intended as forecasts or predictions, but are illustrations of growth and change in the population that would occur if assumptions made about future demographic trends were to prevail over the projection period.
Capital cities mentioned in this release are Greater Capital City Statistical Areas, as defined in the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS): Volume 1 - Main Structure and Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (cat. no. 1270.0.55.001).
When reporting ABS data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (or ABS) must be attributed as the source.
For media requests and interviews, contact the ABS Communications Section on 1300 175 070 or media@abs.gov.au (8:30am - 5:00pm Canberra time Mon-Fri).
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APA

Citation

Australia's population to reach 30 million in 11 to 15 years

APA

Citation

Projected population, States and territories, at 30 June

Selected population milestones, Australia, Series A, B and C

Media notes

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